As things in the economy go from manipulated to ultra-manipulated, make sure you're ready for totally extreme changes. Although only a few companies are driving the stock indexes, they are heavily dependent on policy decisions and the aggressive addition of more fiat units into..

the collective global system. COVID policies, drastic changes in spending habits, lack of earnings power for the masses, are all likely to have a shocking liquidity experience to the system in the coming year. The amount of breadth at which the impairment will occur is nearly..

impossible to predict or forecast. The first chart I posted is simply demonstrating my opinion that the system is becoming increasingly unstable and the aperture for potential outcomes is widening. As policymakers respond to growing volatility (on a global level), their...

coordination is going to become more important, yet more difficult to achieve. I've mentioned many times before that the "printing" is becoming more and more competitive and has evolved into the ultimate 'Tragedy Of The Commons' situation where currency debasement is...

the "scarce" resource they are competing to insert into their own self-interested domains faster than their neighbors. Although one can expect dramatic credit impairment which can cause financial markets to crash in a fantastic fashion & in short order, policy responses will be

1/10 - It's 5:52 in the morning, and I am revisiting decades-old thoughts about race, class, and privilege; about "Line" and "Staff" jobs and who tended to get each in the civilian Federal workplace from which I retired; ...

2/10 - ... about EEO, Diversity, "avoiding the appearance of impropriety" in assigning salary ranges to different classes of hard and sometimes dirty work, and the extent to which these salaries and classes seem "Stamped from the Beginning," to use a phrase from @DrIbram.

3/10 - These ideas and thoughts woke me up from sound sleep and had their seeds in a dream on a recurring theme I was having: I was back in my Federal Civilian office job, and we were once again wrestling with reorganization because it was moving our duties out from under us

4/10 - I have these kinds of dreams because of, I think, my disposition, which according to the way my Federal @DeptofDefense workforce management wanted to divide up the work to be done, made me a tough person to fit . . and possibly to promote.

5/10 - I had no desire to do anything but the fascinating technical work for which I was hired and, later, for which I boosted my productivity tenfold by cross-training. This came at a price, but also raised in my mind questions about that price.

In response to my posts supporting repeal of Section 230 (https://t.co/ceZZWXyzi6 and https://t.co/af0rjlGTVF) I have a number of people give me horror stories about bad post-repeals hypotheticals (thread)

Let me say that none of these hypoetheticals sound that bad to me (I couldn't care less if Substack goes under -- sorry to all the Substackers out there), but let me give a hypothetical horror story allowed by Section 230

Imagine that some right-winger bought tens of millions of dollars worth of ads on Facebook, with a doctored photo, showing your favorite politician, activist, writer, academic etc, doing the the most disgusting thing imagineable

The target of these ads would of course have the right to sue the person who paid for the ads for defamation.

Suppose that "person" was the XYZ corporation, whose existence is a post office box in Lincoln, Nebraska, registered to John Doe.

2021 NEW YEAR MESSAGE
Happy New Year Dear Compatriots and friends across the world.
This is the beginning of a new journey, a new chapter, a fresh opportunity to start and recover from the losses of 2020.

Last year was a challenging year, characterized by tales of misfortunes, deaths and illnesses. It was a tough moment for many homes and families owing to the unfortunate #COVID19 .

The pandemic plagued our world with many consequences, causing hardship and other forms of insecurity.

2020 was a year of many challenges and struggles both as individuals and as a nation. From #COVID19 to #EndSarsProtests, we witnessed disruptions in our cultures, economy, livelihoods and life itself.

These unfortunate events should propel us to re-examine ourselves, re-evaluate our priorities and commit ourselves to new norms, new cultures and new traditions.

November 2020 US NPD THREAD - November 2020 consumer spending across video game hardware, content and accessories reached a November record $7.0 billion, 35% higher when compared to a year ago. YTD spending totaled $44.5 billion, 22% higher than the same time period in 2019.

US NPD HW - Consumers spent a November record $1.4 billion on new video game hardware, an increase of 58% versus YA. Growth was driven by the launches of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series. Year-to-date hardware spending reached $4.0 billion, 34% higher than a year ago.

US NPD HW - PlayStation 5 was November's best-selling hardware platform in consumer spending, while Nintendo Switch led the market in units sold.

US NPD HW - PlayStation 5 achieved the highest launch month unit and dollar sales for a video game hardware platform in U.S. history. The records were previously held by the PlayStation 4, which debuted in November 2013.

US NPD HW - Nintendo Switch has been the best-selling hardware platform in units sold for a record 24 consecutive months.

What you need to know about Nigeria’s Petroleum Industry Bill.

Crude oil dominates Nigeria’s economy, accounting for around 90% of export earnings. #NigeriaNeedsPIB

The country has the largest oil and gas reserves in sub-Saharan Africa with an estimated 37bn barrels of oil and 188 trillion cubic feet of gas. #NigeriaNeedsPIB

Yet for decades, the virtually ungovernable industry has been plagued by poor leadership, eye-watering corruption and environmental degradation. #NigeriaNeedsPIB

Value has leached away through opaque licensing deals, unaccountable middlemen, a lack of refining capacity and graft in the government and state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). #NigeriaNeedsPIB

Sabotage and pipeline theft in the oil-rich Niger Delta have ensured that the taxpayer loses out on billions of dollars in annual revenues. #NigeriaNeedsPIB

THREAD – Mortality 2020

Today we published England & Wales mortality statistics for the w/e 25 Dec

Nearly a full year’s data for 2020

In the last 52 weeks there were:
c.604k deaths registered across E&W

This is:
c.73k deaths (14%) above the 5-yr avg = excess deaths

1/11

Remember the bank holiday effect which affects weekly figs

And the lag between deaths occurring and being registered

We now provide modelled estimates of death occurrences to remove these

The chart below shows both registrations and modelled occurrences across 2020

2/11

Looking at excess deaths, we began the year with death levels below the 5-yr avg

This was followed by a huge peak in the spring, driven by COVID, until lockdown1 took effect

Note the small Aug heatwave peak

And then a gradual pick up through autumn as CV took hold again

3/11

A seasonal effect means more deaths in winter than summer

The pattern of excess deaths as a % of normal weekly deaths is similar

There is a noticeable jump in the latest w/e 25 Dec

Given the recent alarming rise in CV infections this will increase further in Jan

4/11

For longer term context we can compare annual deaths back to 1900

Deaths have been rising recently as life expectancy improvements have stalled, but the jump this year to over 600k is clear

Only one previous year has topped 600k – 1918, the year of the “Spanish” flu

5/11

Payrolls in November rose a mere +245k. That's the sort of number you might see in a "normal" month, and definitely not what you're hoping for in the snapback from a covid-induced shutdown.

THE RECOVERY IS STALLING.

Remember, the economy lost 22 million jobs, then gained roughly half of them back.

We still have 10 million fewer jobs than we did in February. Clawing the rest back at +245k per month will take basically forever. If this is the second half of the recovery, it's going to be grim

The dramatic ups and downs of recent months might hide the real story here: The economy is in a deep hole -- as deep as in the darkest days following the financial crisis -- and the recovery is faltering. Barely there. Making no progress. Stalled. Stopped.

The proximate causes of our slowing economy are obvious:
The virus is back, which hobbles the service sector, and stimulus has basically petered out, leaving the economy with little help. It doesn't have to be this way.

The household survey suggests that employment actually declined (by -74k) last month. So the fall in unemployment from 6.9% to 6.7% largely reflect the fact that an additional 400k people dropped out of the labor force.

1/💩ton

OK we have text of the new Stimulus bill... combined w/ a WHOLE lot of other legislation.

In all the PDF version of the full bill clocks in at 5593 pages. Can be found: https://t.co/RwPOMZ5b7d

Buckle up. This is gonna be a LONG ride!

2/x

But before we dive into the bill, a quick note from my soap box… This whole process is absurd. They JUST released a 5k+ page bill, and they are going to vote on it TODAY.

They aren't even pretending to have time to read what they're voting on anymore.

*Steps off soap box*

3/x

Ok... on to the meat. Let's start by answering the question that so many are already asking... “Will I be getting another #stimulus check?”

The answer, like last time, is “Maybe.”

Notably, the maximum stimulus amount per person this time around is $600.

4/x

Under the CARES Act, adults got $1,200 for themselves, and $500 for children as a ‘base amount.’ This time, it’s $600 for each person.

So, for instance, a single filer w/ no kids starts w/ base of $600. Family of five, like this👇starts w/ a base amount of $600 x 5 = $3k

5/x

But those amounts" will be reduced once income exceeds the following thresholds:

Single: $75,000
Joint: $150,000
HOH: $112,500

As was the case under the CARES Act, the ‘base’ stimulus check will phase out by $5 for every $100 a taxpayer is over their applicable threshold.

Over a month ago, we completed a big restructuring @FOCUSBRANDS to adjust for scale and prep for next growth phases. My 2nd big reorg in 10 years there, and I'm so proud of it! Will share more soon, but here's a thread on making changes before you are forced to + tough calls.

I am so grateful for leadership changes we made over the last 2 years - wish I would have made some even earlier. I can't imagine going through a large reorg (+2020) w/o the new presidents and leaders we promoted, invested in and hired, which also meant parting ways with some.

Making changes when you "don't have to" is a bit of a paradox. You DO have to. It's just that you aren't forced to (yet). I've learned to redefine crisis & know that a time will come that pressure-tests my team. I know that I "must" do it before I "have" to do it.

I use that knowledge to initiate changes in human, caring, and direct ways. An example of one of those convos (major paraphrasing): "you were a fit for some time, but no longer, we're not parting ways today, but we need to unwind by "X", let's build a plan to do that together"

There is much left out of that little clip of a sentence: development attempts, collaboration, etc. etc., but when you know, you know, and often (always in my experience) they do, too. At that stage, their optimal growth will be somewhere else - I want to get them there.

Here’s the thing about equality intersectionality.

A serious effort to reduce socio-economic inequality (that did nothing on race or gender) would inevitably have disproportionate benefits to BAME communities and women.

Because they are more likely to be poor. (1/?)

So Liz Truss’s starting point is not off the wall.

*Sometimes* efforts to increase BAME inclusion or female diversity end up helping only those who were privileged already. The same woman who sits on 8 boards. The privately educated middle class child of a lawyer who gets onto a special internship to improve diversity in the law.

If you want to seriously address racial and gender disparities you need to also tackle poverty and sociology economic inequality. You have to be intersectional.

Because the middle classes - including BAME people and women in them - are good at protecting their privilege.

But the same is true if you start - as Liz Truss does - on the other side of the equation.

As I said: reduce inequality and women and BAME people will disproportionately benefit.

BUT

Yesterday, at the end of @dbongino's pod...he talked about creating a "parallel economy."

I have a few questions for you pertaining to this. Specifically, what is the end game of a "parallel economy?"

Did we not have a parallel economy back in the 50s? An econ that was segregated for white people and "negros" (Historical context, NOT derogatory meaning).

So, I understand your idea about creating competition in the market place

Competing News Aggregators
Competing social media platforms
Video hosting platforms
PAYMENT processing platforms

Competing scholarly journals
1000s of competing news outlets...

But a parallel econ?

A parallel econ in it's entity will continue the wedge in the country which, historically, is exactly the discourse and demoralization that the left/communists THRIVE IN!

You're advocating for a systemic chaos system of constant conflict...hear me out.

Will this "parallel econ" create a "parallel country?" What geographic territory will this "parallel economy" hold?

By creating a parallel economy, you're creating a parallel country that is running in two separate, but diametrically opposed directions.

What is your endgame?