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1/

🧵 THREAD about probably one of the BEST discussions about social value of work, economic wealth and fairness in a while.

40 mins with @amolrajan, @PJTheEconomist @elerianm @KGerlich777 Louise Casey

@davidgraeber 🗣️ "The more your job helps others, the less you get paid"


2/

Reminded me of @euan_lawson for @BJGPjournal quoting Michael Sandel on meritocracy: https://t.co/tAl6sobtKW

🗣️ "In an unequal society, those who land on top want to believe their success is morally justified. In a meritocratic society, this means the winners must believe...

3/

🗣️ "...they have earned their success through their own talent and hard work.… at a time when racism and sexism are out of favor (discredited though not eliminated), credentialism is the last acceptable prejudice."

4/

@PJTheEconomist over the last 20 years:

⬇️ 30% per person spending on social care
⬆️ 100% more hospital doctors.

No extra GPs - actually the number of full time equivalents is dropping: https://t.co/n20woUk0Wu

And they aren't equally distributed either (inverse-care law)

5/

When we look at care work @KGerlich777 talks about care sector:

➡️ How it is heavily gendered? 80% women
➡️ How poorly it is paid and misconceptions about what it involves.

Louise Casey explaining needed huge reform and re-structure
1/9. There are many problems with this rule. Pruitt/Wheeler threw out EPA's own established procedures to short-circuit the science review: changes to the review process since 2017 undermined its quality, credibility, and integrity.


2/9. Pruitt/Wheeler kicked all 7 members off the Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee, and replaced them under a policy found to be arbitrary and capricious by the U.S. district court of SDNY. The repopulated CASAC has the appearance of lack of impartiality.

3/9. Wheeler refused to form a CASAC Ozone Review Panel 3 months after EPA issued a call for nominations for such a panel, thereby depriving CASAC of the breadth, depth, and diversity of expertise, experience and perspectives needed for ozone NAAQS Review.

4/9. The Ozone review process was truncated and accelerated, leading to inadequate scientific review, and inappropriate commingling of science and policy reviews. Fewer opportunities for public comment created a less transparent NAAQS scientific review process

5/9. As professional malpractice, the stripped down and reconstituted CASAC offered advice outside of its expertise, particularly with regard to epidemiology (there were zero epidemiologists on CASAC). The CASAC chair imposed a burden of proof contrary to that of the CAA.
Nice article from @MESandbu. This from a theme in sellside research before Christmas. Could the pandemic break secular stagnation & deliver a decade of strong growth?


Historical evidence clear - pandemics are usually deflationary, causing lower r*. Big difference with wars, which usually cause r* to rise. Great Jorda et al paper on this

Here is their main result


Historically, Wars destroyed both capital stock and labour force. Pandemics killed millions but left capital stock untouched. Covid-19 is neither of these things. Workforce hasn't plunged, capital stock untouched. Comparison with 1920s is a stretch. So precedent for today..

Some more recent evidence based on modern health crises shows only a short-lived boost to GDP, then weaker trend then before. See this Vox column
Ahh fuckit part of my @threadapalooza thread had a clear subtopic and wanted to be its own thread.

Here's the thread about "membranes" as a metaphor for groups of people.


15a/ Membranes. Monists go on about how everything is one, which is true in a sense but also have you noticed that some things are inside and some things are outside? The role of skin, or the walls of a house, or a windshield on a car, is it keeps inside in & outside out.

15b/ Membranes can be applied to groups, and we can talk about a few different kinds of membranes that you might see around a particular group of people:
- closed membrane
- closed web
- semipermeable membrane
- open network

15c/ Closed Membrane: eg a company, family or country. Maybe a way to join it, but you need an active & explicit invitation by the members, whether that’s a job application or a marriage or an immigration process. Lots of intentional community houses are also like this.

15d/ Closed Web: consider a friend group. You don't exactly need an invitation from everyone in the group to join, but you do need to make friends with *someone* in the group. Polycules (except polyfidelity) work similarly, usually.
One of Germany’s most prominent economists, Hans-Werner Sinn, warns of hyperinflation; he links it directly to Hitler's rise to power. A distortion of history: the rise of the Nazis was preceded by deflation, exacerbated by fiscal austerity. Thread /1

https://t.co/hmAz0tsyuv


Sinn says hyperinflation after WW1 impoverished the German middle class in the Weimar Republic: "Ten years later they elected Adolf Hitler as Reich Chancellor." Policy recommendation today against hyperinflation: "tighter budget constraints" /2

https://t.co/ydfxgiCpkD


Sinn thus feeds a widespread misinterpretation. Mass poverty when the Nazis came to power in 1933 was not the result of hyperinflation, which at that time was ten years in the past; it was primarily a consequence of mass unemployment due to the recession in the early 1930s. /3

The Nazis had come to power after years of deflation - i.e. falling prices. From 1930 onwards, Reich Chancellor Brüning used emergency decrees to bring about tax increases and drastic state spending cuts that pierced the social safety net. /4


Austerity policies increased unemployment, led to social suffering and unrest. Hitler realised by the end of 1931 at the latest that Brüning's austerity policy would "help his party to victory and thus end the illusions of the present system." /5

https://t.co/yRN6hseciX