November Jobs Report Thread
There is both good news and bad news buried in the report.
Most often, too much attention is paid to the headline month on month numbers.
1)
As @R_Perli highlighted, if the LFPR does not increase back to pre-COVID levels, we're going to struggle with weaker trend potential growth.
https://t.co/zw7fCZ2gfY
The worst part of the employment report is the stall in the labor force participation rate (-0.2% today and about 2% lower than pre-#COVID19).
— Roberto Perli (@R_Perli) December 4, 2020
The longer participation stays depressed, the harder it will be to bring those workers back, and the lower potential growth will be. pic.twitter.com/7u966oxBME
This is a structural issue and not totally related to demographics either.
https://t.co/Lxn4g7VyLh
The first year after a recession the snap back is pretty strong vs the decline. Macro tourists get excited and confuse it with a new paradigm. It\u2019s not. After the first year the economy changes gears and settles into its structural growth trend, people confuse that shift too
— GreekFire23 (@GreekFire23) December 4, 2020
We have a growth upturn at the moment so we can ignore the LT trend, but only temporarily.
End.
More from Economy
True that all the people cherishing the support of IMF or WTO for farm reforms need to cool it down a bit, because that is a model we do not want to emulate to the t in India here.
But here are some issues that deserve to be better discussed by all:
1. People who say we are emulating the Western model of agriculture are way off with this assumption. The process of primitive accumulation, the alienation of their people from their land and the way these 'first-world' countries have pushed their people into Industrial sector +
+ was a merciless phase.
But the same assumption won't work for India, because we have always had a large workforce in agriculture, agri subsidies have always run high, protection has been the hallmark of agriculture and rural representation in the parliament has always been+
+ high. Still, it is our utter failure from the beginning that we have not been able to incentivize the movement of our people to other lucrative sectors.
2. This brings us to the another point of providing MSP on all the commodities and the demand side of the issue that we+
+ conveniently ignore. Here's the thing, Food prices in India have about 65-70% weight in calculating the Consumer Price Index and 25-30% of wholesale price index. These indices affect the general price level in the economy i.e. the inflation. If MSP is offered on all the+
But here are some issues that deserve to be better discussed by all:
WTO backed by Western countries have always wanted to dismantle support systems for farmers in developing countries including India while pumping in federal payments to its farmers. Trump gave 46 billion dollars in 2020 alone to US farmers. pic.twitter.com/0V34ZQQq4J
— Ranveer Singh (@ranveersiiingh) February 4, 2021
1. People who say we are emulating the Western model of agriculture are way off with this assumption. The process of primitive accumulation, the alienation of their people from their land and the way these 'first-world' countries have pushed their people into Industrial sector +
+ was a merciless phase.
But the same assumption won't work for India, because we have always had a large workforce in agriculture, agri subsidies have always run high, protection has been the hallmark of agriculture and rural representation in the parliament has always been+
+ high. Still, it is our utter failure from the beginning that we have not been able to incentivize the movement of our people to other lucrative sectors.
2. This brings us to the another point of providing MSP on all the commodities and the demand side of the issue that we+
+ conveniently ignore. Here's the thing, Food prices in India have about 65-70% weight in calculating the Consumer Price Index and 25-30% of wholesale price index. These indices affect the general price level in the economy i.e. the inflation. If MSP is offered on all the+
