The anatomy of a scenario...

A ЁЭШБЁЭЧ╡ЁЭЧ┐ЁЭЧ▓ЁЭЧоЁЭЧ▒ on how mitigation works, why we probably need some level of carbon capture & storage (CCS) & carbon dioxide removal (CDR) - just not as much as in scenarios.

Based on my presentation тЖж https://t.co/j5uLxUi0xF

2. We start with a baseline or reference scenario, that assumes no or limited mitigation. If we want to stay "well below 2┬░C" we need to get rid of the dark grey & be net-zero!

We can argue about the baseline, but for the purposes here, it doesn't matter https://t.co/C0dAdj65tl
3. The heavy lifting is done by conventional mitigation: behavioural change, energy efficiency, fuel switching (fossils to non-fossils), changed transport, dematerialisation, etc, etc...

But, scenarios suggest this is not enough to get rid of all greenhouse gases.
4. In some sectors, particularly some industrial sectors, perhaps the cheapest or only way to mitigate is with carbon capture & storage (CCS), eg, cement, steel, chemicals, etc

This is one reason we need CCS...
5. We can't forget about non-COтВВ emissions. We can probably get most non-COтВВ out of industry, but what about agriculture? Even if we change diet, reduce food waste, etc, we may not be able to eliminate CHтВД or NтВВO from agriculture.

Some COтВВ & non-COтВВ remains (dark grey)...
6. Since we can't get rid of all COтВВ & non-COтВВ, we need some carbon dioxide removal (CDR), shown as bioenergy with carbon capture & storage (BECCS).

This is how mitigation works in an IAM: we need lots of conventional mitigation with CCS & CDR to clean up the remaining mess.
7. When we show scenarios, we often miss the large slice that has come from standard mitigation. Most of the standard mitigation we already know how to do...

This scenario goes below zero & will have temperature overshoot, but I am not going down that rabbit hole today!
8. CCS fits into scenarios in two ways:
1. Avoid emissions in the continued use of fossil fuels
2. As an element of some types of CDR (BECCS & DACCS) - other forms of CDR don't need CCS

There is a lot of confusion between CCS & CDR, & some like using CCUS (not a fan myself)
9. I have just shown one scenario, but there are lots of pathways to 1.5┬░C. They all have similar characteristics, but they also differ in details.

It may be possible to get to 1.5┬░C with more or less CCS & CDR...
10. Unfortunately, most scenarios use loads of CCS (a lot of which is BECCS). The scales are big...

If you assume an average CCS facility is 1MtCOтВВ/yr, that is on average ~10,000 facilities by 2050. In the 2040s, growth is 1GtCOтВВ/yr or a new ~3MtCOтВВ facility every day!
11. I would argue this level of CCS on these time scales is not feasible, but IAMs disagree with this point (my view is the outlier view).

But, that does not meant we don't needs CCS. Back to fundamentals:
* Hard-to-mitigate industry
* Offset agricultural emissions
* Overshoot
12. Together with my colleague @idasogn, we wrote a post on why CCS may be necessary, even if the level in scenarios seems excesssive.
https://t.co/Wp4MsOTQmU
13. It is not a question of ЁЭРвЁЭРЯ we need CCS, but a question of ЁЭРбЁЭРиЁЭР░ ЁЭРжЁЭРоЁЭРЬЁЭРб...

But, don't forget, the heavy lifting is done by conventional mitigation...

You can check my presentation here https://t.co/j5uLxUi0xF

/end

More from Economy

You May Also Like

рд╢рдорд╢рд╛рди рдореЗрдВ рдЬрдм рдорд╣рд░реНрд╖рд┐ рджрдзреАрдЪрд┐ рдХреЗ рдорд╛рдВрд╕рдкрд┐рдВрдб рдХрд╛ рджрд╛рд╣ рд╕рдВрд╕реНрдХрд╛рд░ рд╣реЛ рд░рд╣рд╛ рдерд╛ рддреЛ рдЙрдирдХреА рдкрддреНрдиреА рдЕрдкрдиреЗ рдкрддрд┐ рдХрд╛ рд╡рд┐рдпреЛрдЧ рд╕рд╣рди рдирд╣реАрдВ рдХрд░ рдкрд╛рдпреА рдФрд░ рдкрд╛рд╕ рдореЗрдВ рд╣реА рд╕реНрдерд┐рдд рд╡рд┐рд╢рд╛рд▓ рдкреАрдкрд▓ рд╡реГрдХреНрд╖ рдХреЗ рдХреЛрдЯрд░ рдореЗрдВ рдЕрдкрдиреЗ рддреАрди рд╡рд░реНрд╖ рдХреЗ рдмрд╛рд▓рдХ рдХреЛ рд░рдЦ рдХреЗ рд╕реНрд╡рдпрдВ рдЪрд┐рддрд╛ рдкреЗ рдмреИрда рдХрд░ рд╕рддреА рд╣реЛ рдЧрдпреА редрдЗрд╕ рдкреНрд░рдХрд╛рд░ рдЛрд╖реА рджрдзреАрдЪрд┐ рдФрд░ рдЙрдирдХреА рдкрддреНрдиреА рдХреА рдореБрдХреНрддрд┐ рд╣реЛ рдЧрдпреАред


рдкрд░рдиреНрддреБ рдкреАрдкрд▓ рдХреЗ рдХреЛрдЯрд░ рдореЗрдВ рд░рдЦрд╛ рдмрд╛рд▓рдХ рднреВрдЦ рдкреНрдпрд╛рд╕ рд╕реЗ рддрдбрд╝рдкрдиреЗ рд▓рдЧрд╛ред рдЬрдм рдХреБрдЫ рдирд╣реАрдВ рдорд┐рд▓рд╛ рддреЛ рд╡реЛ рдХреЛрдЯрд░ рдореЗрдВ рдкрдбрд╝реЗ рдкреАрдкрд▓ рдХреЗ рдЧреЛрджреЛрдВ (рдлрд▓) рдХреЛ рдЦрд╛рдХрд░ рдмрдбрд╝рд╛ рд╣реЛрдиреЗ рд▓рдЧрд╛ред рдХрд╛рд▓рд╛рдиреНрддрд░ рдореЗрдВ рдкреАрдкрд▓ рдХреЗ рдлрд▓реЛрдВ рдФрд░ рдкрддреНрддреЛрдВ рдХреЛ рдЦрд╛рдХрд░ рдмрд╛рд▓рдХ рдХрд╛ рдЬреАрд╡рди рдХрд┐рд╕реА рдкреНрд░рдХрд╛рд░ рд╕реБрд░рдХреНрд╖рд┐рдд рд░рд╣рд╛ред

рдПрдХ рджрд┐рди рджреЗрд╡рд░реНрд╖рд┐ рдирд╛рд░рдж рд╡рд╣рд╛рдВ рд╕реЗ рдЧреБрдЬрд░ рд░рд╣реЗ рдереЗ редрдирд╛рд░рдж рдиреЗ рдкреАрдкрд▓ рдХреЗ рдХреЛрдЯрд░ рдореЗрдВ рдмрд╛рд▓рдХ рдХреЛ рджреЗрдЦ рдХрд░ рдЙрд╕рдХрд╛ рдкрд░рд┐рдЪрдп рдорд╛рдВрдЧрд╛ -
рдирд╛рд░рдж рдмреЛрд▓реЗ - рдмрд╛рд▓рдХ рддреБрдо рдХреМрди рд╣реЛ?
рдмрд╛рд▓рдХ - рдпрд╣реА рддреЛ рдореИрдВ рднреА рдЬрд╛рдирдирд╛ рдЪрд╣рддрд╛ рд╣реВрдБ ред
рдирд╛рд░рдж - рддреБрдореНрд╣рд╛рд░реЗ рдЬрдирдХ рдХреМрди рд╣реИрдВ?
рдмрд╛рд▓рдХ - рдпрд╣реА рддреЛ рдореИрдВ рднреА рдЬрд╛рдирдирд╛ рдЪрд╛рд╣рддрд╛ рд╣реВрдБ ред

рддрдм рдирд╛рд░рдж рдиреЗ рдЖрдБрдЦреЗрдВ рдмрдиреНрдж рдХрд░ рдзреНрдпрд╛рди рд▓рдЧрд╛рдпрд╛ ред


рддрддреНрдкрд╢реНрдЪрд╛рдд рдЖрд╢реНрдЪрд░реНрдпрдЪрдХрд┐рдд рд╣реЛ рдХрд░ рдмрд╛рд▓рдХ рдХреЛ рдмрддрд╛рдпрд╛ рдХрд┐ 'рд╣реЗ рдмрд╛рд▓рдХ! рддреБрдо рдорд╣рд╛рди рджрд╛рдиреА рдорд╣рд░реНрд╖рд┐ рджрдзреАрдЪрд┐ рдХреЗ рдкреБрддреНрд░ рд╣реЛ ред рддреБрдореНрд╣рд╛рд░реЗ рдкрд┐рддрд╛ рдХреА рдЕрд╕реНрдерд┐рдпреЛрдВ рдХрд╛ рд╡рдЬреНрд░рд╛рд╕реНрддреНрд░ рдмрдирд╛рдХрд░ рд╣реА рджреЗрд╡рддрд╛рдУрдВ рдиреЗ рдЕрд╕реБрд░реЛрдВ рдкрд░ рд╡рд┐рдЬрдп рдкрд╛рдпреА рдереАредрддреБрдореНрд╣рд╛рд░реЗ рдкрд┐рддрд╛ рдХреА рдореГрддреНрдпреБ рдорд╛рддреНрд░ 31 рд╡рд░реНрд╖ рдХреА рд╡рдп рдореЗрдВ рд╣реА рд╣реЛ рдЧрдпреА рдереА'ред

рдмрд╛рд▓рдХ - рдореЗрд░реЗ рдкрд┐рддрд╛ рдХреА рдЕрдХрд╛рд▓ рдореГрддреНрдпреБ рдХрд╛ рдХреНрдпрд╛ рдХрд╛рд░рдг рдерд╛?
рдирд╛рд░рдж - рддреБрдореНрд╣рд╛рд░реЗ рдкрд┐рддрд╛ рдкрд░ рд╢рдирд┐рджреЗрд╡ рдХреА рдорд╣рд╛рджрд╢рд╛ рдереАред
рдмрд╛рд▓рдХ - рдореЗрд░реЗ рдЙрдкрд░ рдЖрдпреА рд╡рд┐рдкрддреНрддрд┐ рдХрд╛ рдХрд╛рд░рдг рдХреНрдпрд╛ рдерд╛?
рдирд╛рд░рдж - рд╢рдирд┐рджреЗрд╡ рдХреА рдорд╣рд╛рджрд╢рд╛ред
рдЗрддрдирд╛ рдмрддрд╛рдХрд░ рджреЗрд╡рд░реНрд╖рд┐ рдирд╛рд░рдж рдиреЗ рдкреАрдкрд▓ рдХреЗ рдкрддреНрддреЛрдВ рдФрд░ рдЧреЛрджреЛрдВ рдХреЛ рдЦрд╛рдХрд░ рдмрдбрд╝реЗ рд╣реБрдП рдЙрд╕ рдмрд╛рд▓рдХ рдХрд╛ рдирд╛рдо рдкрд┐рдкреНрдкрд▓рд╛рдж рд░рдЦрд╛ рдФрд░ рдЙрд╕реЗ рджреАрдХреНрд╖рд┐рдд рдХрд┐рдпрд╛ред
And here they are...

THE WINNERS OF THE 24 HOUR STARTUP CHALLENGE

Remember, this money is just fun. If you launched a product (or even attempted a launch) - you did something worth MUCH more than $1,000.

#24hrstartup

The winners ЁЯСЗ

#10

Lattes For Change - Skip a latte and save a life.

https://t.co/M75RAirZzs

@frantzfries built a platform where you can see how skipping your morning latte could do for the world.

A great product for a great cause.

Congrats Chris on winning $250!


#9

Instaland - Create amazing landing pages for your followers.

https://t.co/5KkveJTAsy

A team project! @bpmct and @BaileyPumfleet built a tool for social media influencers to create simple "swipe up" landing pages for followers.

Really impressive for 24 hours. Congrats!


#8

SayHenlo - Chat without distractions

https://t.co/og0B7gmkW6

Built by @DaltonEdwards, it's a platform for combatting conversation overload. This product was also coded exclusively from an iPad ЁЯШ▓

Dalton is a beast. I'm so excited he placed in the top 10.


#7

CoderStory - Learn to code from developers across the globe!

https://t.co/86Ay6nF4AY

Built by @jesswallaceuk, the project is focused on highlighting the experience of developers and people learning to code.

I wish this existed when I learned to code! Congrats on $250!!