1/x The market continues to try & shake out weak hands from overextended positioning by both HF & Retail...After a strong Vanna run up overnight, as expected, retail exuberance exploded on the open in the form of retail call buying, this fragility, paired w/a)Mean reverting flows

1/ Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes (Turn and face the strange)... as futures, sit pinned @ an odd elevated morning perch awaiting Janet Yellen’s confirmation hearing & her call for the new admin to ‘act big’...this narrative has markets on high. But the truth is that it’s actually just Gary

2/x behind the curtain, pulling the usual levers. Until Vixperation on Wed, it‘ll be nearly impossible to break the IVol oversupply. This pinning of IVol was so strong on Fri that despite a peak to trough drop of nearly -2% in SPX, fixed strike straddle were down across the board

3/x & particularly decimated in the very front of the curve. IVol particularly in the 30 day range is showing dramatic signs of oversupply relative to the rest of the IVol surface, giving a nod to the Vix strip driving the compression. Even during windows of vanna weakness as we

4/x are in now, this oversupply phenomenon paired w/ a market decline & a slide to higher fixed strike IVols can still lead to a temporary ‘Dead Cat Bounce’ where residual Vanna/charm morning flows lead to brief AM market support. These supporting flows are generally just strong

5/x enough for a countertrend thrust &, unable to meaningfully impact more important macro flows & hence generally should be faded starting around 9-10am CST. That said Gary’ll likely see to it that there is no major technical break below 1 stdev in the 20 days, likely preventing

4/x keepers are calling in the Fed(s) (Fed/sec) for some help getting the animals back under control, so they can feed Gary & get the zoo back under control. As they are likely giving guidance to the brokers to get this under control, as every major retail broker seems to be

5/x restricting trading in the short squeeze names to closing only. The Wheel of Fortune has a taping on Fri & w/out Gary at his best the show will be overrun by the animals. If they can make it to the EOM & keep Gary above the 20 day, calm him down & start feeding him,vanna will

6/x be back & should be able to nurse him back to his usual self & save the show. But there’s a lot of time between now & then & holding the animals @ bay until then seems like a colossal task. Given the pop in Ivols & backwardation of the curve, when vanna gets back she will be

7/x refreshed & in preelection form. The only question is will the animals be so out of control so as to not even be managed by Vanna in her best shape.. This decline fits into a narrative that I’ve had brewing for 4 months, that after a monster run since Sep this is a healthy &

8/x reasonable time to expect the animals to be tired of being caged up & want to blow off some steam. All the biggest wall of worry narratives have been solved 1 by 1. Sentiment & bullish positioning was at all time highs. Hedging activity was low. Breadth was deteriorating. W/

1/x Vanna is back & ready to turn back on the charm! Overnight the market hit our weeklong target of **3705 and pulled back... We were able to take profits & play for a bit of morning digestion. It’s been a nice +3.5% in a week w/a few extra scalps along the way...But the best

2/x part has been the gift of Vol compression, which along w/ short Vol profits, has given us significant calendar expansion & dispersion opps, as predicted. I expect this to continue this week as well, as Ivol oversupply should continue to be the dominant force until 12/11.This,

3/x paired w/ the significantly increasing Vanna & Charm flows, will make it hard for any decline until 12/14 to catch meaningful momentum. This said, the narrowing of 20 day RVol as well as the 2 stddev of the 20 day just overhead should cap any rallies, given the dramatically

4/x overextended retail (8-day SMA of P/C equity is the lowest in 20 years) & institutional positioning. This push/pull, should ultimately keep the market fairly pinned this week...Jan 8th call’s on back are incredibly cheap w/ a GA runoff event straddle of only $55, which given

5/x the potential macro-cyclical consequences of the next 2 years of fiscal stimulus seems absurd...& In terms of a more short term trade,Tesla Vol is either too high or 12/18 on back calendar spreads in the SPX are too low, as there’s no premium being priced in for the inclusion

What happens with the limited volumes of food aid that are sent to Tigray?

Testimonies on aid to the war-affected Tigray &

Shire: 7 kg of wheat were required to sign for 15 kg. If they refused to sign for 15 kg they were denied the 7 kg

IDPs in Shire: Currently around 80 000 displaced Tigrayans in Shire, spread across three different schools

Addi Da’iro: “Residents were denied food aid after the inhabitants refused to appoint PP officials as administrators. The residents demanded the evacuation of Eritrean soldiers instead.”

Aksum: "I heard there have been food aid of 15 kg of grain per family, and only once. Neither I, nor my relatives have received aid. No idea about how many families received that 15 kg of food aid. How many days would that last? Who takes the rest? Of course, the Eritreans?”

Adwa: “Last time, they made us sign 15 kg while giving only 7 kg”.

1) Let's talk about a key part of the Chinese creator economy. The creator management and incubator agencies known as Multi-Channel Networks (MCN). We''ll summerise key lessons for the western creator economy.

And know how Li Ziqi got her 12m YouTube subscribers

2) MCNs are modern-day talent agencies (but more) who target influencers and creators as their clients. It originated in the US but has proliferated in China, with industry estimates of 5k-7k Chinese MCN operating as of 2020.

3) Typically, as creators gain enough following, they find it difficult to be an-all-in-one content creator, editor, customer support rep, accountant, lawyer, and marketing guru that the job demands.

Enter the MCNs who offers the creator the following:

4) Audience and traffic growth, PR management, monetisation through ads & e-commerce and support with retail fulfillment.

Their services are more holistic than western MCNs, who's offerings are more domain-specific.

5) Agreements between Chinese MCNs and creators can get into guarantees of the number of followers provided, copyrights, subtitling and distribution help, as well as providing analytical feedback on their content.

"Hello, IT? My economy has stopped working."

"Have you tried -"

"Yes."

"Okay. Check settings. What does it say under software?"

"Compatible with EU membership."

"Do you have that?"

"I just uninstalled it."

"Er - Why?"

"Honestly, I can't remember. Something about fish?"

"Is your fish industry running okay?"

"No, actually that was the first app to crash."

"You see, that one really needs the EU platform installed."

"Really? But my mate told me fishing would run better without it."

"He sounds confused. Can you reinstall your EU app?"

"What about this app my mate gave me instead? It's called Sovereignty 45."

"Mate, don't touch that. It's malware. It'll reduce your economy down to the levels of 1945."

"But those were the glory years! Weren't they?"

"Mate, when were you born?"

"1960. Why?”

“You have also installed the Hostile Environment firewall which is limiting the capacity of other systems”

"But my mate said those things stop viruses."

"Is your mate's name Nigel by any chance?"

"Yes! How did you -"

"Another wild stab. Those aren't viruses, they are EU workers, and they are vital to the smooth running of your systems."

"But I clicked on a pop-up that said it would get rid of them all for me."