THREAD – Mortality 2020

Today we published England & Wales mortality statistics for the w/e 25 Dec

Nearly a full year’s data for 2020

In the last 52 weeks there were:
c.604k deaths registered across E&W

This is:
c.73k deaths (14%) above the 5-yr avg = excess deaths

1/11

Remember the bank holiday effect which affects weekly figs

And the lag between deaths occurring and being registered

We now provide modelled estimates of death occurrences to remove these

The chart below shows both registrations and modelled occurrences across 2020

2/11
Looking at excess deaths, we began the year with death levels below the 5-yr avg

This was followed by a huge peak in the spring, driven by COVID, until lockdown1 took effect

Note the small Aug heatwave peak

And then a gradual pick up through autumn as CV took hold again

3/11
A seasonal effect means more deaths in winter than summer

The pattern of excess deaths as a % of normal weekly deaths is similar

There is a noticeable jump in the latest w/e 25 Dec

Given the recent alarming rise in CV infections this will increase further in Jan

4/11
For longer term context we can compare annual deaths back to 1900

Deaths have been rising recently as life expectancy improvements have stalled, but the jump this year to over 600k is clear

Only one previous year has topped 600k – 1918, the year of the “Spanish” flu

5/11
Numbers of deaths are affected by population size

We can also consider death rates – as a proportion of the population

“Crude” death rates are shown below

All improvements in the first decade of this century will be reversed this year

“Spanish” flu did the same in 1918

6/11
Numbers of deaths are also affected by population structure, such as age. We will produce age standardised rates soon

Whilst the UK-born population is ageing, with post-war baby boomers now in their 50’s to 70’s, recent immigration will have predominantly been younger

7/11
Our world changes too

Medical advances, the NHS, welfare state, better living conditions, all mean that 14% of babies do not die before their 1st birthday. They did in 1900

Excess deaths vs the last 5 years gives current context

This year will see the most since 1940

8/11
We can adjust by population to get crude excess death rates

2020 will also be the highest since 1940

Even with measures taken to limit COVID spread, 2020 will still top 1951, the year of a major flu epidemic

Without all our efforts, 2020 could have been much worse

9/11
A week is a long time in a pandemic

But the basic COVID logic remains the same 👇

Thank you to everyone caring for the sick in such difficult circumstances, you are heroes

My deepest condolences to all who have lost loved ones this year

10/11

https://t.co/ZOWHlIZ3FJ
Thread on today’s figures from the main ONS account below 👇

Best wishes to all suffering with COVID today

And best wishes for an eventual recovery to all of you with Long COVID – I know how you feel

Stay safe and keep others safe

11/11 - ENDS

https://t.co/6MobNvPY0B

More from Economy

1/ Trend Factor: Any Economic Gains from Using Information over Investment Horizons? (Han, Zhou, Zhu)

"A trend factor using multiple time lengths outperforms ST reversal, momentum, and LT reversal, which are based on the three price trends separately."

https://t.co/udkvsdw2Lz


2/ This resembles combining multiple measures of ST reversal, momentum, and LT reversal (forecasts determined by walking forward rather than using signs from the full sample).

Unlike normal moving average signals, these are *cross-sectional.* More below:
https://t.co/wkIFLg9jtK


3/ Unsurprisingly, the Trend factor formed by this approach outperforms benchmarks in terms of both Sharpe ratio and tail metrics. It's combining momentum with two factors that are negatively correlated to it AND using multiple specifications.

More here:
https://t.co/x8Tloz3iyL


4/ "Average return and volatility of the trend factor are both higher in recession periods. However, the Sharpe ratio is virtually the same.

"Interestingly, all of the factors still have positive average returns.

"Momentum experiences the greatest increase in volatility."


5/ "In terms of maximum drawdown and the Calmar ratio, the trend factor performs the best.

"The trend factor is correlated with the short-term reversal factor (35%), long-term reversal factor (14%), and the market (20%) but is virtually uncorrelated with the momentum factor."

You May Also Like

https://t.co/6cRR2B3jBE
Viruses and other pathogens are often studied as stand-alone entities, despite that, in nature, they mostly live in multispecies associations called biofilms—both externally and within the host.

https://t.co/FBfXhUrH5d


Microorganisms in biofilms are enclosed by an extracellular matrix that confers protection and improves survival. Previous studies have shown that viruses can secondarily colonize preexisting biofilms, and viral biofilms have also been described.


...we raise the perspective that CoVs can persistently infect bats due to their association with biofilm structures. This phenomenon potentially provides an optimal environment for nonpathogenic & well-adapted viruses to interact with the host, as well as for viral recombination.


Biofilms can also enhance virion viability in extracellular environments, such as on fomites and in aquatic sediments, allowing viral persistence and dissemination.