BC ECONOMY
Saved by @Jacobtldr

Interpretation of Financial Statements - preliminary filters.

1. Looking for sustainable competitive advantage:

When looking for sustainable moat, you wanna see consistency - in earnings, in having low debt, in having growing earnings, low spending in capital expenditures, etc.

 The longer the company has existed, and if it sells you the same product for years (like Coca Cola), it reduces production costs and other costs (R&D, Training, marketing) slowly as the company ages.

When costs are reduced, margins and profits increase.
2. What to look for in an income statement:

Let's take a look at Apple:

i) You want to see earnings grow at a steady pace. Take a look at the net income below.
ii) Another thing that's important is a consistent and high gross margin.

As a thumb rule, Warren Buffett wants to see a gross margin of around 40% or above.

Although not quite 40%, it's around that range with respect to Apple.
Compare this to Apple's competitors.

Samsung's gross margins are around similar range, highest being 45.7% in 2018, and Huawei had a gross margin of 38.6%.
Having a high gross margin indicates the scalability of the business. The more the company sells, the greater the profitability becomes. Such a trait is what you want to see in a business you want to own.
iii) You also want to note the net margin.

Gross margin = (revenue - cost of goods sold) / revenue

Net margin = net income / revenue.

You want to see the company having higher net margin compared to their competitors.
Apple's net margin is around 22%. Samsung's net margin is around 18% and Huawei's net margin is around 8.5%.

Typically, net margin above 20% is a very strong one, indicating that we are dealing with a smoothly run business.
3) In the balance sheet:

Look at the figure - "Retained Earnings".

Using retained earnings, you can find out if a company is reinvesting its income or not. A steady growth in this number means the business is profitable, and that it's identifying good investing opportunities.
Apple doesn't fulfill the criteria regarding retained earnings. But that's because in 2013, Apple started a rigorous dividends and share repurchase program.

To measure how efficiently a company is using these retained earnings, Return on Equity (ROE) is used.
To calculate ROE, compare Net income to the Total Equity of the company.

Apple looks quite strong in this aspect. It's partly an effect of distributing a lot of their earnings to shareholders. It also signifies the sustainable competitive moat.
Compare this with Samsung (ROE:18.3%) and Huawei (ROE:25.3%), Apple shows significant strength.

4) Exceptional businesses seldom require a lot of debt to expand (except maybe banks/NBFCs). Instead, they can just use the strong cashflow from the business.
So, look for businesses with little to no long term debt. If a company can pay off with all its long term debt with less than 4 years of earnings, it signifies a good position for the company. Apple fulfills this criterion. Samsung and Huawei do too.
5) In a cashflow statement:

This is where you see the actual in's and out's of money.

Look at "Capital Expenditures" on the cashflow statement.

This is the money being spent on properties, plant, and equipment.
Look at what percentage of net income the capital expenditures are. You want it to be as low as possible, lower than 25% over a period of time is considered very good. Less than 50% is okay-ish.

Exceptions: One time payment to grow the business in some capex activity.
Look at Apple's CAPEX spendings. Compare that with their net income, and you can see that their average capex spending is less than 25% of their net income. Samsung (around 65%) and Huawei (around 45%) aren't even close.
Also, in Apple's cash flow statement, we can see the reasons why the retained earnings from the balance sheet haven't been growing from 2012. Apple has been distributing a lot of cash to its shareholders.
Apple's Augmented Payout Ratio (includes share buybacks and dividends) has been higher than 100% in some years. This basically means Apple's distributing more money than it earns.
5) When to sell?

3 instances when you could consider selling the stock.

i) You need money for a better investments. This is more so applicable in a bear market, for you to switch from something great to something exceptional.
ii) When a company loses its competitive advantage. Times change, and once monopolistic companies are constantly being disrupted. If your investment faces such a risk, cut it loose.
iii) During crazy raging bull market. Even if a company runs a fantastic business, it could be a bad investment if you have to pay insane price. At such times, at such price, you could selling a fantastic business if you already have held onto it for a long time.
At a PE of 40 or higher, you should start considering selling your stocks, even if you believe in the underlying economics of the company.

This may not always apply to all markets, all stocks. But with anything above 40PE, tread carefully and cautiously.
So, key takeaways:

- Competitive advantage and scale
- Consistently high net income, return on equity
- Requires very little debt
- Retained earnings has steady growth
- Capital expenditures should be < 25%
- Sell a company if prices are crazy, or a better opportunity comes up.
The Swedish Investor YT channel has some interesting playlists on financial statements. Check it out. These insights I gathered are from one of his videos.

https://t.co/nbKA5Bzpi6
For learning Valuation, nothing better than Aswath Damodaran's course. Find his courses here:

https://t.co/MbmUKsE968

More from Shravan Venkataraman 🎡

Shravan Venkataraman \U0001f525\U0001f680\U0001f4b0
Shravan Venkataraman 🔥...
@theBuoyantMan
Have you ever had 4-5 profitable trades in a row, and you bet all your profits on your next trade feeling "in the zone" only to lose it all?

That's called as "hot-hand fallacy" bias.

I ran a poll recently to outline two classic biases we have as humans.

Thread below 👇👇


1/ *Hot-Hand Fallacy* first had its origin in the game of basketball.

If a player shoots few baskets in a row, people generally predict that the next shot will also be a basket.

This is ignoring the fact that each shot is independent of the ones that came prior.

2/ In this poll, 41.1% people voted that the batsman who hit 4 sixes in a row, will hit a sixer in the 5th ball also.

This is classic hot-hand fallacy.

Each ball's outcome is independent.

The probability is not 50% FYI (number of outcomes is not 2).

These 148 people who voted that the next ball will also be a sixer, did so because they believe that the batsman is on a hot streak, and that his streak would continue.

This is an emotional bias and is usually attached to human performance related events only.

3/ 45.3% (162) people voted that the 5th ball would be a dot ball, meaning the batsman wouldn't score anything.

These people displayed the classic "negative-recency" bias, which is also called the "Gambler's Fallacy".
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Shravan Venkataraman \U0001f525\U0001f680\U0001f4b0
Shravan Venkataraman 🔥...
@theBuoyantMan
50 rookie mistakes to avoid as a stock market beginner - a thread.

1. Watching CNBC and acting on the recommendations provided by the "analysts", "experts" and "fund managers" who appear on TV.

Remember, most of them don't even beat the benchmark index on an annual basis.

2. Giving too much importance to Moneycontrol articles and recommendations. Moneycontrol profits off of noobs. They depend on you to make their money. They get paid by buy side firms who want to dump their positions, and sell side firms whose clients want to sell.

They also get paid to propagate rumours (albeit subtly) about stocks that the buy-side firms want to buy (albeit at lower prices) and sell-side firm clients want to buy. So, if you see a recommendation on moneycontrol, that marks the distribution phase (most of the times).

3. Listening to colleagues, friends, and family on what to invest on, where to invest, what stocks to buy. Usually these are also people who have no real expertise, but started a year or few months ahead of you. They only talk about their winners, you get very excited.

4. Listening to social media "experts". People on Twitter, Youtube, etc., even if they look like they are trading crores, or managing hundreds of crores, have different reasons for trading/investing in something. Typically, following them is the path to the butcher's shop.
TRADING
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Shravan Venkataraman \U0001f525\U0001f680\U0001f4b0
Shravan Venkataraman 🔥...
@theBuoyantMan
** MEGA THREAD ON Cryptocurrencies/Blockchain**

I wanted to know the best resources to learn about cryptocurrencies and blockchain for someone with zero knowledge. I asked Twitter, and Twitter answered.

This thread is a compilation of the best resources I was recommended. 👇👇

Let's start with ** BOOKS **

The first thing you should do before you pick up any book:

Learn about Bitcoin & Ethereum by reading the respective whitepapers.

- [Bitcoin white paper](https://t.co/cErOaFn6QL) by Satoshi Nakamoto

- [Ethereum White paper] (https://t.co/0g5kYCGJGq) by Vitalik Buterin

Even if you are not tech savvy, you can get a good grasp about how blockchain functions from these papers.

1) *The Basics of Bitcoins and Blockchains: An Introduction to Cryptocurrencies and the Technology that Powers Them* by Antony Lewis

This book covers topics such as the history of Bitcoin, the Bitcoin blockchain, and Bitcoin buying, selling, and mining.

It also answers how payments are made and how transactions are kept secure.

Other cryptocurrencies and cryptocurrency pricing are examined, answering how one puts a value on cryptocurrencies and digital tokens.
FINANCE
Shravan Venkataraman \U0001f525\U0001f680\U0001f4b0
Shravan Venkataraman 🔥...
@theBuoyantMan
A market wizard named Michael Marcus converted a $30,000 initial stake to $80 Million dollars over a period of 10 years.

Here are 28 lessons he considers very important for anyone venturing into trading, from his experience.


1/ The importance of not giving up:

In Fiddler on the Roof, there is a scene where the lead looks up and talks to God.

I'd look up and say, "Am I really that stupid?"

And I seemed to hear a clear answer saying, "No, you're not stupid. You just have to keep at it."

So I did.

2/ On key price levels:

There are key price levels like

- previous day/week/month highs or lows
- round number levels

where you can have 1:5 or more worth RR of trades if you place yourself right.

The key is to hit the crest of the wave, just at the right moment.

If it doesn't work out, you have to get out.

Doing this, you can make several hundred points, risking 1/3rd to 1/5th of what you make.

3/ The secret to getting efficient at trading:

Cut down the number of trades you make.

The best trades are those in which all 3 things check out:

- Fundamentals
- Technicals
- Market Tone
TRADING GUIDES
Shravan Venkataraman \U0001f525\U0001f680\U0001f4b0
Shravan Venkataraman 🔥...
@theBuoyantMan
Hedge Funds spend millions of dollars per year to access high quality financial datasets.

Retail sources cost anywhere from $5k-50k per year.

But, here are 11 data sources that have HIGH QUALITY and FREE data you can access right away.

🧵 👇

1/ Alpha Vantage | https://t.co/ExlS7Jdnsz

Provides real time & historical equities, forex, and cryptocurrencies data across 60+ exchanges.

They provide both intraday and D/W/M timeframe data.

You can also access economic & fundamental data for last 20 years through them.

2/ IEX | https://t.co/drqeoU8Ee1

Investors Exchange provides historical data going back upto 15 years for US equities through API access.

You'll need an API key in order to access the API.

3/ EconDB | https://t.co/6mZxDeaJfh

This website provides economic data and economic indicators for almost all the countries in the world.

You can search for your preferred dataset through their search engine here

4/ Quandl | https://t.co/fW4PEQaW66

Quandl has financial and alternate data across 50+ exchanges, from over 300 sources.

They also have information on capital markets, energy, shipping, healthcare, education, demography, economics and society.
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micky finn
micky finn
@critpraxis
For those who haven’t heard, we are witnessing a globally coordinated plan (conspiracy) to use fear and safety as cover for a #GreatReset of the world economy & society. This is a planned and internationally coordinated strategy by the most powerful global elites-the ruling class

The aim of the global ruling class is to refashion global capitalism into what we can call neo-feudalist technocratic bio-fascism-or ‘global fascism’ for short.

The aim is for remaining liberal democratic rights and freedoms that have been in place at least formally in the ‘west’ for the last few hundred years to be eroded and withdrawn.

There’s lots of different terminology and branding, for example: Great Reset, Fourth Industrial Revolution, Technocracy. The main aim of this plan is the concentration of power over capital, wealth, people and nature in the hands of a the very largest corporations and monopolies.

This plan for a new phase of global capitalism is enabled by national states and governments, international organisations & quangos (EU, UN, NATO, IMF, WTO, WHO, Gates, GAVI). With no clear lines between state and non-state actors, this is also a form of global corporatism.
ECONOMY
Moses Kagan
Moses Kagan
@moseskagan
1/ How to raise a real estate fund (and, ideally, avoid getting sued)

Have warned everyone it’s better to raise capital deal-by-deal, bc it’s easier to raise & bc it's better for the sponsor. Still, there’s interest in learning how to do a fund… so, here goes.

2/ Don’t think of doing this unless you have a record of successful deals, ideally mostly/all in the same asset class / strategy.

Remember: You will be asking LPs to invest in YOU; they need to feel like you know what you’re doing.

3/ Really helps to have a list of prospective LPs BEFORE you start your raise. The more high-quality leads you have, the more likely you are to succeed. (I built my list via my blog initially; now twitter leads predominate - see my bio.)

4/ Find an experienced attorney. Doesn’t need to be a huge, expensive firm, but you want someone who has done a lot of private offerings before. Don’t agree to a big fee yet… at first, you just want a few hrs of her time for advice.

5/ Find an experienced CPA. Ideally, your existing CPA has worked on a lot of private deals before. If not, get a new one. Prospective LPs need confidence that someone good is overseeing the bookkeeping and doing the tax prep.
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Yaneer Bar-Yam
Yaneer Bar-Yam
@yaneerbaryam
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is analyzing damage due to COVID and projecting further severe consequences if current policies persist. They state “despite involving short term economic costs, lockdowns may lead to faster economic recovery by containing the virus”

1/


Note: This report doesn’t do a dynamic analysis that makes things much clearer, but it does a thoughtful statistical analysis based upon increasingly available data.

https://t.co/5Xmt8y7lCL

A few more quotes:

2/


“The analysis also finds that lockdowns are powerful instruments to reduce infections, especially when they are introduced early in a country’s epidemic and when they are sufficiently stringent.”

3/


“lockdowns become progressively more effective in reducing COVID-19 cases when they become sufficiently stringent. Mild lockdowns appear instead ineffective at curbing infections.”

4/

“The results suggest that to achieve a given reduction in infections, policymakers may want to opt for stringent lockdowns over a shorter period rather than prolonged mild lockdowns...

5/
ECONOMY
The Recount
The Recount
@therecount
Last month, Texas resident Royce Peirce paid $387.70 to heat his two-story house. This month, he owes $8,162.73 — and counting.

Amid freezing temperatures and another looming winter storm, Texans are facing a second crisis: astronomical power

Why are these energy bills so high? You can thank Texas’s power grid for that.

The U.S. is divided into three grids: one covers the eastern states, another the western states, and then there’s the Texas grid, ERCOT, which covers nearly the entire state.

Now you might be wondering: Why does Texas have its own power grid?

If you’re familiar with the state’s history and public policy, you probably already know the answer. In short, Texas has its own grid to avoid dealing with the federal

What we’re witnessing now is a collapse of the state’s power grid.

Amid freezing temperatures, the imbalance between Texas’s staggering electricity demand and its limited supply caused prices to skyrocket from $20 per megawatt hour to $9,000 per megawatt hour — a 450% increase.

One wholesale power supplier, Griddy, made a surprising decision.

CEO Michael Fallquist told Griddy’s 29,000 customers to abandon his service and switch providers: “We want what’s right by our consumers, so we are encouraging them to
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Michael Kao
Michael Kao
@UrbanKaoboy
Re: Fannie/Freddie-The Path Is Actually Clearer NOW. On its face, this claim may sound ludicrous off the back of a precipitous drop in valuations due to what some interpret as SM losing his nerve and punting to a hostile Admin. In this thread, I posit the exact opposite.

First, the economic realities: 1) GSEs are the bedrock behind our housing market which in turn is the bedrock behind our economy, 2) after 12 years and $300 bn, gov has thus far squandered the opportunity to recap, 3) this economy recovery is VERY long in the tooth.

When Trump took office, we all hoped that he would usher in a regime change from the Admins that enacted conservatorship and then the Net Worth Sweep. Well, he actually did that with the appointments of SM and MC.

Yet, what always bothered me about SM was his perfect poker-face. For those of you following me for awhile, you know I’ve been saying that I couldn’t tell whether he was just playing bad cop or really was Darth Vader incarnate.

The primary consensus exit preconditions were: 1) there has to be a demonstrable path to meeting cap reqs, 2) the SPS needs to be forgiven, 3) court cases need to be settled.
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Anu Satheesh
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Thrikkangode Sree Randu Moorthy Temple
Ottappalam, Kerala. 🚩
#keralatemples

This is very unique temple as Shiva and Vishnu both are in the “linga” form in the same Garbhagriham. The Srikovil is in a circular pattern. Temple's Prathishta was done by Parasurama.


Mahadeva and Maha Vishnu in the same Srikovil is very rare Prathishta, but poojas are done separately Dhara is done to Maha Vishnu here. People suffering from “KAIVISHAM” and mental illness are fully cured on drinking a medicinal herb supplied by a nearby family here.


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Later two persons Chakki and Chaathan, while cutting trees their axe hit on the nearby
@SriramKannan77


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Om Namah Sivaye
Om Namo Narayanaya
🕉🙏🕉
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The '60s at 60
The '60s at 60
@the_60s_at_60
"The MAD Primer of Bigots, Extremists and Other Loose Ends," from September 1969.

Seen a couple of these panels make the rounds from time to time, so here's the complete set of 10 (something to amuse and/or offend almost everyone).


Chapter 1: The Super Patriot


Chapter 2: The Ku Klux Klansman


Chapter 3: The American Student


Chapter 4: The Right-Wing Extremist
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Melissa (she/her)
Melissa (she/her)
@LiteraryMouse
In regards to the #CapitolCoup, I’m in a unique position. I monitored forums ahead of time and then was present for the coup itself.

These are my observations based on what I saw and the evidence that’s been collected so far. I reserve the right to adjust my analysis as needed.

Let’s talk about the organization of the coup first. Seeing some people insist that the coup must have been highly planned and coordinated.

Yes and no. This was a #StochasticCoup. We’ll see little evidence of direct communication between Trump and the insurrectionists.

Within the insurrectionists, there was not one group that executed the storming of the Capitol.

Rather, there were a number of smaller groups working independently towards the same goal. I expect you’ll see little evidence that these various groups communicated with each other.

What you will see is detailed planning and coordination within these small groups.

Then there were the joyriders, those Trump supporters who weren’t directly involved in any plotting but who were more than happy to go along for the ride once the coup was in motion.

After four years, the insurrectionists were carefully attuned to Trump’s messaging.

Every tweet and statement of his was treated as marching orders and carefully dissected for meaning.

It’s why shutting down Trump’s Twitter account was so important.
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Anu Satheesh \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Anu Satheesh 🇮🇳...
@AnuSatheesh5
#Guruvayur_Krishna_Bhakthi  🕉
#Guruvayur
#Storytime
Beautiful Story of Guruvayurappan

Poonathanam Namboothiri was a great devotee of Guruvayurappan. One day Poonthanam was going to Guruvayur Kshetram. It was night time and eventhough Namboothiri was tired he continued to walk


Suddenly some thieves came and blocked his way. Poonthanam cried for Shri Krishna to help. Thieves snatched all valuables from him, but Namboothiri holding his Bhaghavatam book called Shri Krishna to help. That time a man came in a horse back and fought with thieves and protected


Namboothiri. Poonthanam thanked Krishna for helping him from danger and said to the man that "Shri Krishna has send you here and I don't know how to thank you".  The man smiled and told that he is Mangattachan, minister of  samoodhiris. Poonthanam once again thanked him and


gave his ring to Mangattachan as a token of thanks and continued his journey. He reached Guruvayur early morning for Nirmalya Darshan. Temple poojari came near him and told that Guruvayurappan came in his dreams and asked to hand over the ring to poonthanam.


When he opened Kshetra Nada poonthanam was surprised to see his ring on Guruvayurappan, which he gifted to Mangattachan. He understood that it was Guruvayurappan who came as Mangattachan to protect him. This is how Bhagwan treat his devotees.

Hare Krishna
🙏🕉🙏
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Daoyu
Daoyu
@Daoyu15
@franciscodeasis https://t.co/OuQaBRFPu7
Unfortunately the "This work includes the identification of viral sequences in bat samples, and has resulted in the isolation of three bat SARS-related coronaviruses that are now used as reagents to test therapeutics and vaccines." were BEFORE the


chimeric infectious clone grants were there.https://t.co/DAArwFkz6v is in 2017, Rs4231.
https://t.co/UgXygDjYbW is in 2016, RsSHC014 and RsWIV16.
https://t.co/krO69CsJ94 is in 2013, RsWIV1. notice that this is before the beginning of the project

starting in 2016. Also remember that they told about only 3 isolates/live viruses. RsSHC014 is a live infectious clone that is just as alive as those other "Isolates".

P.D. somehow is able to use funds that he have yet recieved yet, and send results and sequences from late 2019 back in time into 2015,2013 and 2016!

https://t.co/4wC7k1Lh54 Ref 3: Why ALL your pangolin samples were PCR negative? to avoid deep sequencing and accidentally reveal Paguma Larvata and Oryctolagus Cuniculus?
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