THREAD: A thread on research and sampling, and how the media use data and polling.

I can safely say from a decade of working with media, it is *highly* unusual for a newspaper to so heavily reference a self-selecting and homemade survey and present it as the views of all people.

Surveys with self-selecting samples, in this case, both from FairFuelUK + cycling advocates, should not be represented as the views of all of those groups; same goes for claiming data represents "Tory voters".

And that's without even mentioning the survey's leading questions.

Polls can make for really interesting stories and are commonplace in media. YouGov, a key player, vets the questions and ensures they don't lead, and gets answers from a statistically representative sample to reflect the views of all GB adults.

You've probably seen the stories: X% of Brits think X. The sample size is over 2,000 and the methodology means they'd be confident the output would be the same, even if the number of people surveyed increased.

They ensure each demographic is represented as per the population.

I've worked with YouGov to conduct polls like this, most recently for @BikeIsBestHQ. Our nationally representative survey looked like this.

- 62% used their cars as first choice for errands
- Just 5% cycled
- 78% agreed the environment would be better if more people cycled

The use of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to study the impact of specific interventions, has over the last decade become a dominant methodology in development microeconomics

However, some argue that socioeconomic RCTs do not test hypothesis rooted in theory and ignore mechanisms of causality

For example,

"In 2006, approximately 1,300 men and women were tested for HIV. They were then offered financial incentives of random amounts ranging from zero to values worth approximately four month’s wages if they maintained their HIV status for approximately one year..."

"Throughout the year, respondents were asked about their sexual behavior three times, through interviewer-administered sexual diaries. Respondents were then tested for HIV, and financial incentives were awarded based on whether they had maintained their HIV status..."

"After the second round of testing, the incentives program stopped."

Taken from the article 'Conditional Cash Transfers and HIV/AIDSPrevention: Unconditionally Promising?'

Happy 2021! @MBVanElzakker and I are excited to share our new article published in #Immunometabolism: “Pathogens Hijack Host Cell Metabolism: Intracellular Infection as a Driver of the Warburg Effect in Cancer and Other Chronic Inflammatory Conditions”:

2/ In the paper, we detail molecular mechanisms by which #viral, #bacterial, and #parasite intracellular pathogens can induce, or contribute to, a Warburg-like #metabolism in infected host cells in order to meet their own replication and nutritional needs.

3/ We also discuss how host defense towards #infection may impact cellular metabolic changes (including how #mitochondria can participate in the innate immune response towards infection)

4/ We then provide examples of how many of these same intracellular pathogens have been identified in #tumors, atherosclerotic lesions, #granuloma, and other tissues containing cells with a Warburg or altered metabolism.

5/ Last, we examine further trends associated with infection and host cell metabolism, including how #pathogen-driven hijacking of host cell lipid metabolism can support viral, bacterial, and parasite survival and replication.

(10/01/2018) Human 2.0 Is Coming Faster Than You Think. Will You Evolve With The Times?

(01/24/2019) Chinese scientists cloned gene-edited monkeys, with horrifying

(08/05/2019) Spanish scientists are making 'very promising' human-monkey chimeras in

(09/15/2019) Three-Year-Olds Might Become Eligible for Sex Changes at UK Clinic. NHS Plans Referrals for 3-year-olds Struggling with Gender

(10/29/2019) Scientists Demonstrate Direct Brain-to-Brain Communication in

A short thread on what I think is particularly useful intuition for the application of computational statistics.

Deterministic methods, like variational Bayes, utilize _rigid_ approximations. Ultimately these methods try to find the best way to wedge an approximating solid into the desired solid. If the two shapes are close enough then you can get a good fit.

But this rigidity also means that the approximating solid can't always contort to fit into the desired solid. If the two shapes don't match up well enough then we will end up in lots of awkward configurations no matter how hard we push.

In particular it's hard to quantify how good the fit of the approximate solid into the desired solid might be without knowing the shape of the desired solid already, which isn't possible in practice. This is one reason why these methods have such limited empirical diagnostics.

Stochastic, methods, on the other hand, utilize more fluid approximations that are able to take the shape of their container given enough time. In this respect we can think of them like a liquid or gas filling the desired shape.

Thread: No Black Hole - Proved by Indian Scientist- No means No
Indian Scientist A.K. Mitra who contested Stephen hawking since 1998 and proved that true black hole do not exist. His research is being avoided from last 22 Years , and Indians are just Sleeping. #BlackHoleMyth

1.Mitra 1st showed his proof regarding true black holes in 1998 , in his research paper he proved that the mass of black hole will be zero that means it do not exist.
2.He put forward a new alternative for such ultra massive object - Eternally Collapsing Object
#Blackholesmyth

3. He was the 1st scientist to solve Hawking's Black Hole Information Paradox, 13 years after his research hawking shown the same thing what mitra told.
4. His research papers were published in top science journals and no one disproved his basic Proofs till now.
#BlackHoleMyths

5. His alternative explanation MECO has many observational evidence while many Obs. Evidence are against Black Hole.
6. Harward University officially accepted his research in their press release.
7. Neither Mathematical nor Obs. evidence support black hole

8. Even the famous black hole image is also misleading, it was the shadow of black hole mimicker , there is no any single evidence for singularity and event horizon , so no black hole.

The halal polemics has begun … yet again!
Race and religious bigots will spin to trigger tension
Important to stick to the back of basics of Shari’ah (Islamic jurisprudence) & Research ethics
The relationship between Shari’ah and Fiqh is represented by a tree and its parts.

The roots rep the Shari’ah & its primary sources of legislation-Qur’an &Traditions of the Prophet (Sunnah)
The trunk and branches rep the tools & methodologies (Usul al- Fiqh/foundations of Fiqh & Maqasid/Objectives) used by scholars to derive the fruits (fatwas/rulings)

For e.g. The primary sources constitute the raw ingredients of a medicine
The methodology & tools are how pharmacists process the raw ingredients into a medicine
The resulting medicine is dispensed by doctors.

The meds may be out of date or cause adverse effects.
It warrants an alternative prescription.
The relevance of a fatwa would dep on its quality, the societal context & its ability to effectively achieve Maqasid Shari’ah-bringing benefit (maslahah) or removing harm (mafsada).

The 2nd Maqasid Shari’ah aka Priorities of Islamic Law is the preservation of life
Global-70 Million cases & 1.6 million deaths
M’sia-78K cases & 396 deaths
A #COVID19 vaccine is one of the solutions to end the pandemic apart from masking, distancing and hygiene

China’s Super Soldiers with Bio-enhancement Capabilities

On December 3rd, 2020, John Ratcliffe, the Director of National Intelligence, posted an article1 in the Wall Street Journal warning the American people that ,

“the People’s Republic of China poses the greatest threat to America today and the greatest threat to democracy and freedom worldwide since World War II.”

The message is loud and clear, and most Americans agree with Director Ratcliffe’s description of the danger that the CCP regime poses to the American people but would not know how to react to this statement:

“U.S. intelligence shows that China has even conducted human testing on members of the People’s Liberation Army in hope of developing soldiers with biologically enhanced capabilities.” Things like that are only found in sci-fi movies.

Finally! Back with another #ScienteaficABC 😁The next in my alphabetical journey through all 128 (currently, anyway) spider families is ANAPIDAE! This family of diminutive spiders contains 58 genera/231 species as of now. (images: Conoculus lyugadinus by Akio Tanikawa, CC)

They occur worldwide, but mostly S. America, Africa, Asia & Australia/NZ. A few species are found in Europe and North America as well. (Image: Micropholcomma sp. by tjeales on iNat, CC)

Interestingly, Anapidae have either 6 or 8 eyes, with the posterior median pair being either reduced in size or totally absent. They do not exceed around 2mm in body length so, as a family, are very small. (Image: Micropholcomma sp. tjeales on iNat, CC)

They have a modification to the carapace giving them a characteristic raised ocular area. They are tiny (<3mm long), w/ rounded or hunched abdomens & quite short legs. They have a light covering of hairs & some species have spines on their legs & even abdomen. (img: tjeales iNat)

An interesting feature that some species exhibit is the presence of hardened, shell-like dorsal &/or ventral scutes on their abdomen, which are useful in identification. You can see more images including some that show these scutes here:

These 'Beach Animals' were created by Theo Jansen as a fusion of art and engineering. The kinetic structures walk on their own and get all their energy from the

Watch the full video on Youtube:

https://t.co/0BbPc11eTD
The Top 10 Psilocybin Research Papers of 2020
- FS Barrett, MK Doss, ND Sepeda, et al. – Emotions and brain function are altered up to one month after a single high dose of psilocybin. @FredBarrettPhD 1/10

SB Goldberg, BT Pace, CR Nicholas, et al. – The experimental effects of psilocybin on symptoms of anxiety and depression: A meta-analysis. “meta-analysis of studies using psilocybin along with behavioral interventions to treat elevated symptoms of anxiety and depression.” 2/10

GI Agin-Liebes, T Malone, MM Yalch, et al. – Long-term follow-up of psilocybin-assisted psychotherapy for psychiatric and existential distress in patients with life-threatening cancer. “follow-up approx 3.2 and 4.5 years later, w/ 15 of the 16 participants still alive” 3/10

F Blei, S Dörner, J Fricke, et al. – Simultaneous production of psilocybin and a cocktail of β‐carboline monoamine oxidase inhibitors in “magic” mushrooms “paper was chosen for Psychedelic Science Review’s 2020 Editor’s Choice Award for best study on psychedelics and nature” 4/10

J Sloshower, J Guss, R Krause, et al. – Psilocybin-assisted therapy of major depressive disorder using Acceptance and Commitment Therapy as a therapeutic frame “lays out how to combine therapy using antidepressant medication (like psilocybin) w/evidence-based psychotherapy” 5/10