Thrilled to announce our new paper by Victoria Junquera and Adrienne Grêt-Regamey, "Assessing livelihood vulnerability using a Bayesian network: a case study in northern #Laos”, is now out in @ecologyandsociety1 https://t.co/tEbZmiulDS #openaccess #WomenInSTEM. Short thread👇

This work analyzes the effect of #cashcrop production on livelihood #vulnerability, which we define in terms of the probability distribution of household income.

We use a #Bayesian network to estimate the probability distribution of household income, conditional on biophysical (e.g., yield), household (e.g., agricultural land), and commodity price variables.

By expressing all variables, including stressors such as price volatility and yield variability, as probability distributions, our model explicitly reflects exposure and sensitivity to shocks.

Our results show the effects of household land portfolio, including diversification between cash crops and between cash and food crops, on household income and income variability.