Understanding HIGH & LOW VIX

VIX at 16: If you check today's IV behaviour, they were not spiking much even with decent delta move in BNF. The movement was subtle, giving some time to adjust. So someone having good adjustment mechanism can stay in the game longer.

1/

@javia_savan You answered it yourself 🙂
Adjustment cost is way too high for bnf. Sometimes bnf does exceed nifty in vol crush, but nifty overall is more consistent.

THREAD ON DELTA (The most important GREEK)

Many traders don't indulge in understanding GREEKS because they think they are very complicated.

There are 4 primary greeks:

Delta
Gamma
Theta
Vega

In my experience, understanding DELTA is enough to take benefit of greeks.(1/n)

Delta measures the rate of change of options price based on the directional movement of the underlying.

So this means we can know in advance (theoretically) how much an option will move with the underlying & so we can prepare our strategies accordingly. (2/n)

Value of delta varies between 0 & 1 for calls and -1 & 0 for puts. This figure tells how much an option price will change, when the underlying moves 1 point. So example a delta of .2 of call indicates that for every 1 point change in the underlying, the price will move .2 (3/n)

For option writers who want to trade in neutral strategies like straddle, strangle, ratios, calendar etc, delta can be very helpful. So be it any complex strategy, knowing the NET DELTA can give you an idea of how your strategy will perform in different scenarios. (4/n)

Net delta is just the sum of the deltas of all the bull options (call+ & put-) minus the bear options (call- & put+).

So if we can track this, we will always be in the know of how much exposed our position is. It makes it easier then to adjust our position. (5/n)

FINDING EDGE IN OPTIONS

24/08/15: Nifty gap down 250 points & another 250 after that. Previous few months return gone, but since I'm quick to take my losses, was saved from ruin. Before that my only edge in option selling was adjustments & my forever edge of following PA. (1/n)

I soon realised that theta decay with sound adjustments is not an edge, which i earlier thought was & which gave me good returns over the years. After that i went deeper in understanding volatility behaviour, how/where it manifests & all the discrepancies in option chain. (2/n)

With finding edge in logistics i mean how to keep the greeks in check, SL in place & optimum ways of adjustments with minimum slippages. So the main aim here is to write theta without following vol behaviour & having any actual knowledge of what's going on in the markets. (3/n)

A dedicated trader can learn all this in few years & it is something which is 'obvious' to become successful. But majority can't reach this level, as this also requires consistent hustle in live markets. All the seminar/webinar business teaches you till this level only.(4/n)

If you get passed this level though, the real work starts, when you have to find your real edge. This can't be taught in a webinar. It needs serious introspection of your trading skills, psychology & strategies in use, which ultimately allow you to book excellent profits. (5/n)

'Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication' #leonardodavinci

In #technicalanalysis keeping it simple eliminates noise & avoids too much analysis leading to paralysis
#Journalists can use #linecharts to analyse the market & build stories
#MediaFriday
PC @vrvcharts
@CMTAssociation

In a recent interview with Udayan Mukherjee, the big bull Rakesh Jhunjhunwala made an interesting bold statement - "I think nobody has read the Electricity (Amendment) Bill. Once it passes, it will be bigger than 1991 reforms."

A thread🧵dissecting the ongoing Power reforms 👇

2/17
In summary, the Amendment Bill 2021 says:
⚡️ Delicensing of state monopoly- open to competition
⚡️ Consumers can choose discoms (like telcos)
⚡️ Smart meters to plug leakages
⚡️ Easy resolution of disputes
⚡️ Right to 24x7 electricity
⚡️ Rewarding consumers shifting to solar

3/17
We'll discuss these in detail. But first, some context.

India's is the 3rd largest consumer of electricity. But also one of the most inefficient (measured via AT&C losses - electricity that is generated but does not reach intended customers)
AT&C: 22% vs 8% global. Chart 👇

4/17
Currently, only 9% Indians are served by private discoms (Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Delhi).

AT&C loss for Delhi has declined from 55% in 2002 to 9% in 2020 after power distribution was taken over by three private licensees. Makes a strong case for broader delicensing of discoms.

5/17
What are discoms?

The Power value chain:
Raw material (Coal, Fuel) --> Generation --> Transmission --> Distribution --> Consumption

In this chain, Distribution companies (or discoms) have been the weakest link for last 3 decades.

Few #Patterns to master.

Disc* Found on internet.

Fake Breakout : Price crosses over the resistance but does not get follow through. Bearish Engulfing is seen at these levels.

Legit Breakout : Price crosses over the resistance & gets follow through. Pin Bar is ideal candle at these levels.