10 mistakes in my 14 years of trading as an option seller 🧵

A THREAD

Topic: Why triple straddle has no real benefit.

A triple straddle is essentially an ATM Straddle & one or two step away straddle on either side. The position is almost neutral strategy just like any other neutral straddle or strangle.

1/

We can also view the position as an ATM straddle, a strangle & inverted strangle.

For example

Nifty: 14700

Triple straddle: 14600,14700,14800

Another view:

14700 straddle
14800-14600: strangle
14600-14800: Inverted strangle

2/

So the real question is what is the advantage of an inverted strangle over it's otm counterpart?

The answer is none.

They both have same premiums/theta. Only that slippages will be high in inverted strangle when we do the required adjustments plus liquidity issue.

3/

So isn't it better that instead of a triple straddle, we can just do ATM Straddle & 2* OTM strangle.

So in the above eg. the position will be

14700 ATM straddle
2* 14800-14600 otm strangle.

Same premium received, similar range just that there's no nuisance of ITM options.

4/

The question arises:

Why trade in an ATM straddle & 2* OTM Strangles? Why over-complicate?

Options are in itself a complicated instrument. Wouldn't it be better to stick to one straddle or a strangle & adjust accordingly?

Lesser the strikes, more there will be clarity.

5/

My previous b'day which fell on expiry day was in 2010. On that day Nifty straddle opened at 45. Day range of nifty was around 30pts :)

(High 5415, Low 5380)

At that time:

•Didn't know the word Straddle though i used to trade them regularly
•Greeks existence wasn't known

•Adjustments felt like a superpower
•Everyday theta decay was a birth right
•Any strategy thought off felt like a personal invention
•Listening to people warning about unlimited loss in option selling was normal
•Making unlimited gain in long straddle seemed a possibility

•Volumes & Oi were closely tracked
•Overnight positions without hedge was a normal routine

All the above points have been changed over the years. But the underlying market psychology & following the price action still remains the same.

Thank you all for the warm wishes 🙏

Understanding HIGH & LOW VIX

VIX at 16: If you check today's IV behaviour, they were not spiking much even with decent delta move in BNF. The movement was subtle, giving some time to adjust. So someone having good adjustment mechanism can stay in the game longer.

1/

VIX at 20: The same delta move will be more fierce, coupled with rise in premiums. When premiums rise with movement, then the adjustment cost increases exponentially. The premiums can fall back at EOD, but the damage is done if caught in the spike.

2/

After talking to few traders, their backtest result was in favor of high VIX of 2020, rather than 2017-19. The key flaw in the backtest were the adjustments which are not easy to calculate. Combination of high theta & fixed SL during high VIX, the IV crush is cashed at EOD.

3/

Neutral option sellers who don't adjust & have fixed SL on a static straddle will not be able to benefit highly in low VIX. The straddle which moves away from ATM will increase no matter what. But if we keep on rolling our strikes, then we get good realisation of theta.

4/

I have made majority of my profits in option selling when VIX was at 13-15, mostly just relying on my adjustments. Since 2020 with high VIX, adjustments stopped working because of increase in the frequency of delta + IV spike combos & so had to shift to directional trading.

5/

FINDING EDGE IN OPTIONS

24/08/15: Nifty gap down 250 points & another 250 after that. Previous few months return gone, but since I'm quick to take my losses, was saved from ruin. Before that my only edge in option selling was adjustments & my forever edge of following PA. (1/n)

I soon realised that theta decay with sound adjustments is not an edge, which i earlier thought was & which gave me good returns over the years. After that i went deeper in understanding volatility behaviour, how/where it manifests & all the discrepancies in option chain. (2/n)

With finding edge in logistics i mean how to keep the greeks in check, SL in place & optimum ways of adjustments with minimum slippages. So the main aim here is to write theta without following vol behaviour & having any actual knowledge of what's going on in the markets. (3/n)

A dedicated trader can learn all this in few years & it is something which is 'obvious' to become successful. But majority can't reach this level, as this also requires consistent hustle in live markets. All the seminar/webinar business teaches you till this level only.(4/n)

If you get passed this level though, the real work starts, when you have to find your real edge. This can't be taught in a webinar. It needs serious introspection of your trading skills, psychology & strategies in use, which ultimately allow you to book excellent profits. (5/n)

The best spreads trader on Twitter: @Ronak_Unadkat

He trades in Nifty & Bank Nifty via spreads majorly.

In the Jainam Broking Speech, he shared how he trades debit and credit spreads:

Here's a breakdown of his 10 step method: 🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

1. Why trade via spreads?

Overnight risk will be always capped
Limited Risk will keep you cool
Hedge our position

Strictly not to do for margin, as that will lead to overleveraging.

Traders Sell option for 100 and buy 10 rs option.

That is for margin reduction, not a spread.

2. Circuit:

If the market opens at the lower circuit or upper circuit, then our loss should be limited.

Eg - Expiry Trading on the 24th Feb Expiry

The market gapped down & traders lost huge sums of money.

Some lost 15% or 20% of their capital in a 4% index move.

If in 4% people are losing so huge then imagine if Modi says black money is back, we will open at an upper circuit.

If India-Pakistan tension news comes again we will open at a lower circuit.

In a 4% index move, people lost 10%, so in the case of a circuit, they will lose 50%.

To recover a 50% loss on capital, you need to make 100% returns with the leftover capital to break even.

In these cases, spreads cover your risk.

Even he lost 3-4% of capital on 24th but it is easy to recover in 1-2 months.

We don't have to be smarter than
the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest. - Warren Buffett.

#FreeTip
Finding Strike Prices to sell Options based on #Vix
Eg:
As on 15/06/21,
#Nifty 15869
#Vix 14.61
Days to expiry = 2
Exp Range = 15869 X (1-(14.61% / sqrt(365/2))) to 15869 X (1+(14.61% / sqrt(365/2)))
ie, 15697 to 16040;
Hence pe strike 15700, ce strike 16050;

Which is the best YouTube channel for learning Technical Analysis and Basics of Option...kindly share your feedback and name of channel as so many have asked me on DM so it will help others 🙏

For weekend learning.

1. Reverse buying (Iron Fly Adjustments) https://t.co/1HCmF6ej9e

2. Straddle setup and adjustments
https://t.co/MFvRjemrHw

3. In depth option chain analysis
https://t.co/W9iiCiBJaw

4. Expiry calendar setup