1) *IMPORTANT LINK AT END OF THIS THREAD*
(and no, I've never posted a tweet like this before.)

What times we are in. And how few understand or grasp the utter profundity of the moment.

2) Yet despite how it's looking from this current perspective, and after some turbulent months ahead (likely an understatement), the dawning of a true planetary renaissance WILL become apparent to even the most at-present comatose sleeper.

3) The evil is being uprooted and is being defeated.

That is my conviction as has been since April 2020.

About eight months ago I took a whole new look at Présídent Ťrůmp and what he has been doing – and re-orientated what I thought my opinion of him was.

4) When he first entered the pŕesidency, I had looked at and heard about his tweets, and thought, “Gosh. Can you believe it. This is the Pŕĕsidenţ of the Uníted Státés. How very unstatesmanlike to be tweeting stuff like this”.

5) But about eight months ago, I thought, "Why has every single article that has been written about him in the British media since he started running for office been – without exception – negative, negative, negative?".

Up at 3 am reading Google Scholar on why people are attracted to conspiracy theories.

Some broad themes, people are attracted to conspiracies when:
1. They feel powerless or hopeless
2. Feel alienated, low trust
3. Feel angry, like they are victimized
4. Their worldview has been repudiated

This made me think of another concept, which I think is more associated with history, “loss of empire.” All of those concepts—alienation, hopelessness, victimhood, hostility—can, imo, be emblematic of the emotions of loss of empire.

Thread: Going through my TL, pulling out relevant tweets that show facets of things that have been happening in the past weeks/months, trying to use pattern recognition to put together a coherent picture, I'm struck by our cultivated allergy to nuance. (1/x)

@ukcynic01 Yes, you are right on the number.... they, including Regeneron, pay this Murray guy now for instance to make sure not to utter a word about niacin

https://t.co/d58DAM88q1

My New Years resolution is to provide more actual useful info was thinking maybe it would be shitpost less but I don’t like setting up for failure so here’s a thread on how I think about supply / demand imbalances over cycles thus far I’ve lived

1. Bitcoin is an extremely unique asset in that supply cannot react to demand in any meaningful capacity, miners can add hashrate and mine albeit slowly faster but it’s not enough to drive material supply side changes

2. This differs from a lot of commodities say oil or silver or gold or leggos as people want more of these and prices go up producers produce more they feed the ducks

3. Altcoins imo have largely been a market force driven by this issue though a lot of get rich quick and some actual innovation sprinkled but I think this is why the asset class has grown horizontally at its core

4. Either way you have periods where demand clearly crushes supply often halving related but nonetheless fucking up the imbalance and the momentum does the rest

I'd like to briefly discuss something I think is really important. Possibly the most important thing to consider this new year. When I worked in law I was taught to research and analyze all info & possibilities/arguments. We were taught to remove our emotions from this process..

The reason we were taught not to become too emotionally invested in a particular client or case was because it creates a situation in which you can be blindsided and/or manipulated. It can cause you to miss important information or facts that your client didn't want you to see...

This can then in turn implode your entire case & can damage the firm and/or attorneys reputation & credibility. In law, your reputation/credibility is everything. We were taught to remove emotion from the fact finding due diligence process. We were taught to seek out counter

Evidence; we were taught to analyze a case or legal argument from all sides and perspectives. We were taught how to understand the other side & attorneys argument. This is a vigorous process of picking apart your theory, trying to poke holes in it, questioning your own clients

Story, trying to independently validate or disprove it. This is so when you take the case to trial, you are prepared for everything and all possibilities. You must know the other sides legal theory/argument better than they do. You must have a solid foundation of prior case law..

A serious reasoning error that is particularly common among educated people is to argue that if a study hasn't been done on a particular question we have 'no data', and therefore no basis on which to form beliefs or act.

This is incorrect and dangerous. 1/

There is almost always a reference class we can use to make a sensible prediction, and often we can reason about the causal mechanism directly.

To see how this is clearly wrong, consider these two extreme cases: 2/

a. Before a vaccine trial is conducted we have 'no data' on how likely it is to work.

But we can estimate the likelihood just fine! To start with we can just check the base rate of all vaccine trials.

What fraction of all vaccine trials in history have had +ve results? 3/

That gives a much better estimate than pure agnosticism.

b. Imagine now that the vaccine trial results have come back positive. But by chance all the vaccines were given in a blue room.

So, will the vaccine still work if given in a red room? I guess we have 'no data'.

4/

So can we say nothing about about whether vaccines work in red rooms?

That is plainly ridiculous — we understand the causal mechanism and it doesn't involve room colour, so in fact we can give a near definitive answer to that question. 5/

1/ Have you ever heard the expression of, "Wolf in Sheep's clothing", or when someone mentions a, "False Prophet"? All referring to someone being fake.

I like to use those pointing out politicians, also saying they have a "Straw Tail".

1/ More thoughts on impasse over organizing Senate/committees. McConnell demands Democrats commit that they won't "go nuclear" to ban legislative filibusters. Schumer says no. The organizing resolution can be filibustered, hence McC's potential leverage. So what's going on here?

2/ Democrats are highly unlikely to make such a commitment, even if McC sees the ploy as a clever way to split the Democrats. Even if Dems *did* agree, both parties know it's not a credible commitment. The last time the party leaders shook hands on such an agreement (2011)...

3/ the agreement didn't stick. McConnell and the GOP's concerted effort to block judicial and executive nominees encouraged Reid and Democrats to nuke most nomination filibusters in 2013-- in a Congress that was covered by the 2011 agreement. Granted, that agreement was informal

4/ in the sense that it wasn't written into either the organizing resolution or one of the "standing orders" Senate agreed to in 2011. (Here, I highly recommend @ProfStevenSmith The Senate Syndrome. If we weren't in a pandemic, I'd pull out my hard copy to pinpoint the chapters!)

5/ Of course, even if agreement had been formalized beyond the 🤝, that wouldn't have stopped the Dems in 2011 (minor nuke of the cloture rule) or 2013 (major 💣of cloture rule) or the GOP in 2017-- once the party felt it could shoulder the political costs of bending the rules.

My friend @RiirReeRii comes out with another argument against The Trinity

P1) God exists a se (From the definition of "God)
P2) The Father begetting the Son/Generation is a causal relation.
C1) Therefore, the Son exists ab alio.
P4) The Son is God (From, "Trinity")

C2) Therefore, the Son exists a se (From 1, 4)
C3) Therefore, the Son is exists both a se and ab alio (From C1 and C3)
C4) Therefore, "The Son" Is self-contradictory
C5) Therefore, The Trinity is self-contradictory

By a se we are just referring to God's aseity (i.e, the term a se means "through itself"). Aseity refers to God's uncaused, independant, unconditioned, necessary, etc. Existence.

We are simply exemplifying how God's existence is independant from and unaffected by anything outside of him. It's important to note that "Aseity" doesn't just mean "metaphysical necessity" / "existence in every possible world", since we could have Ab Alio necessities as well.

Ab Alio simply meaning, "Through another." In contrast with A se.

The second Premise might seem a bit weird. Someone might argue that the relation between the Father and the Son isn't "causal" in any sense. But this is just heretical.

@HenningStrandin @davidpapineau I mean, like I said, I basically do agree ‘the problem of induction is a pseudo-problem, because we don't reason inductively in science’. I think attempts justify induction are a dead end, and it’s to Popper’s credit that he took that seriously & worked on alternatives

@davidpapineau (And it’s not like Popper didn’t write a whole bunch on auxiliary hypotheses and ad-hoc falsification as well...most of people’s concerns like this he raised himself and discussed, whether or not you agree with his resolutions)

@davidpapineau My general position is that all attempts to define scientific method ultimately fail, but Popper is generally more interesting and useful than most. Confirmation/inductive logics are among the most naive and, aesthetically, are gross 🤮

@davidpapineau Here’s the naive view of a well-known Bayesian statistician on induction and deduction, who believe Popper was basically correct. There’s certainly some naive philosophy bits, but the important thing to me is that it’s *interesting*:

@davidpapineau In terms of the screenshot of what I wrote, here’s the basic idea. You can tell me if it’s Popper or Bacon or whatever:

Horn is linked to the root KRN, and the same applies to crown, which is another symbol of the same idea, both placed at the head, conveying summit, ornamented by rays. Horns, in their symbolic use, take two main forms: the ram's, which are solar, and the bull's, which are lunar

And the priest shall take of the blood thereof with his finger, and put it upon the horns of the altar of burnt offering, and shall pour out all the blood thereof at the bottom of the altar.
Leviticus 4:30

☀️🦄
🌙🐂

And Joshua the son of Nun called the priests, and said unto them, Take up the ark of the covenant, and let seven priests bear seven trumpets of rams' horns before the ark of the LORD.
Joshua 6:6

Our term horn as in the instrument has a literal root 🐑🎺

Horn is also the same root as thorn, both signifying a protruding ray, thus luminosity, the symbol of solar power, but also weaponry a symbol of physical power, and pointedness signifying summit or elevation.

And the ten horns which thou sawest are ten kings...
Rev 17:12

So that every single one of you precious souls are prepared and are calm and not panicked ❤️:

It is likely that we will be hearing from our fearless leader tomorrow, January 11th, 2021 or sometime early on this week. I give you a time table as something of the magnitude.......

A thread:

1 GOs don't require the use of images. From my reading, DCT is about the use of images paired with words, to aid retrieval. And as @olivcav has pointed out, Pavio worked with simple ideas and concepts.

2 Most of the research into GOs appears to be unhelpful. Hattie lumped all visual strategies together and reported his finding under the heading, concept maps.

3 Fiorella and Mayer, in LaGA, report that mapping, while having a medium-to-high effect size, also take a long time to complete and are difficult to construct.

4 Both studies appear to concentrate on concept maps and in doing so, omit 30+ other GOs. All of which, I argue, are less complicated to read and construct. Skipping over all GOs, to begin with concept maps, is like a ballerina being introduced to pirouettes before a plie.

5 In my opinion, Fiorella and Mayer’s boundary conditions of time and difficulty to construct, are nonsense.

@ajhospitalmng Our recent experience at this prestigious self-proclaimed hospital felt we need to share so that others are aware of what will come their way.

This review and feedback are in no way to attract attention to our woes but think well before you plan

your recovery at this place.

My wife was admitted a few days back for a C-section Surgery, and praise God we were blessed with a beautiful boy, and now we have been discharged and back home.

Our experience at this hospital though was not so much as peaceful at all, though.

- Worried about the current pandemic time, we thought the hospital was more cautious and safer, but as we entered, the staff just filled the COVID screening forms by herself, including our body temperatures without even checking.

They didn't even ask if we had any symptoms or did we have COVID before.

- We were moved to the Labour Theatre Area 'Being Mom' zone, spent the night, the wife was taken to the Labour Theatre in the morning, by afternoon we were out from there, and back into the ward.

- Throughout our time in this hospital, we struggled a lot to communicate with the nurse and staff of the hospital. 99% of the staff only speak Malayalam, and they don't even know how to communicate with other staff or us.

I'd love to think that @michaelsheen's thoughts and responses to Welsh nationhood are the start of a new wave of discussion surrounding who, what, why and how of Welsh Independence.

As support and engagement for #IndyWales increases and the integrity of "Britain" spirals out of control to its inevitable demise, so does the argument against it which more often than not a wave of regurgitated clichés that we must endure.

In turn we have to be careful about this ourselves. We cannot repeat the same rhetoric without evolving our point. And let's be honest Welsh Independence is a good enough point as it is but what can we do to bring those into the fold?

There's plenty of things we can do. Discussion is a key point. It'e tiring for me when I'm the butt of jokes in work for supporting IndyWales and starting a business that's based on it. Yet the arguments by these people are always the same; too poor, too small, too dumb. Boring.

Centuries of misrule, subservience, servitude and asset stripping have led this country and all those within its borders to suffer. And suffer as a whole we have. our shared history with England is a hard one, filled with