@IndianEnergyXch
Transformation drivers
1) Decarbonization - use of solar & wind ,RE (renewable energy)
2) Decentralisation - RE a threat to centralized energy productn
3) Digitization
4) Democratization- peer 2 peer energy trading

Changing energy mix
2020/ 2022 /2030 % of contribution
Thermal 62 /53 /35
Wind 10 /12 /17
Solar 9 / 20/ 36
Hydro 12 / 10 /8

Electricity value chain 4 parts
Generation - Transmission - Distribution - Consumption

Power sector construct
Long term 90%
Short term 10%

Power markets in developed countries are in range 30 - 80% of total power demand ,India 5%

Share of exchange in total generation
2016 - 2.9 %
2021 - 5.2%
Share of ST market in total generation
2016 - 9.9%
2021 - 10.3%
Exchange mkt & ST MKT as % of total gen
2016 29.9
2021 50.2

Electricity consumption to increase
Per capita consumption India 1/3rd global avg,to double over 5 yrs
- Core sector growth ,industrializationrapid urbanization to drive demand
Last mile connectivity- Saubhagya ,power for all 24/7
Demand
2017 - 1236 BU
2020 - 1381 BU

#stocks

Per capita electricity consumptn (KWh)
US 12994
Brazil 2601
China 3927
Global avg 3127
India 1181

IEX India leading power Xchange platform,mkt share 95%
Avg daily trade 6000+ MW
Record day vol 308 MUs

Customer
Industries 4000+
Discoms 55+
ES Cert 100+
Generators 500+
REs 1500+

Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) has become very popular globally, especially in USA. SPACs are known as blank cheque companies, because its a shell company with cash. What is it? How does it work? This is a thread.

(1) A group of people, known as the promoters / founders will list a company (SPAC) on the stock exchange. They are the key management who are also shareholders of the SPAC.

(2) SPAC is a listed company, but has no assets, no business, nothing. It only has cash raised from IPO. Shell company with lots of money.

(3) Once listed, the SPAC will use this money to acquire another company and merge it into the SPAC. Once merged, the company is no longer a SPAC, as it now has assets & a core business and operates like any listed company.

(4) The money raised from IPO will be kept in a trust, until an acquisition is identified, closed & approved by regulators & shareholders. The operating expense of the SPAC is borned by promoters until the SPAC turns into company.

1/

This whole thing is SO shady for so many reasons.

GameStop shares continue their rapid fall back toward earth, along with AMC Entertainment and Express

2/

A Reddit forum has played a big part in this.

Let's start there.

How r/WallStreetBets gamed the stock of GameStop

3/

🇨🇳
February 2019

"Chinese tech giant Tencent now plans to lead a new Series D funding round for Reddit, the social news forum plagued by controversy over the past decade."

Tencent Buys Stake In Another U.S. Social Network -- Reddit

4/

🇨🇳
Tencent, the world's largest video game vendor, invested in a company, Reddit, which is *banned in China*?

Weird.🤔

Reddit, Banned in China, Is Reportedly Set to Land $150 Million Investment From a Chinese Censorship Powerhouse

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These guys that are under investigation.

🇨🇳
U.S. government reportedly looking into 'League of Legends' owner Tencent's gaming stakes

here’s a slightly wonky thread that people who use post-nominal letters will not like: let’s talk about real-time learning in quant-driven strategies and how to do it in practice, because a lot us do this as a result of real-world constraints. its basically TA with a dress-code.

so lets say you found a nee factor, but data is limited becuse it is new-ish? how the hell do you implement it without waiting eons in market-time? first: in small size because distributions are unknown. second: you update the calibration parameters dynamically as you go.

sometimes i am asked why i favor matching assets with volatility estimators instead of betas:
1) volatilities are not stationary but they undergo relatively synchronized regime changes
2) exponentially weighted vols are more responsive to changes in current conditions

3) betas are not stable in shorter terms and identifying changes takes longer and in the short term you get measurement errors if your sample is driving your benchmark
4) honestly the numerical methods are just simpler and i’m a dumdum so it makes it easier for me

5) for long-only baskets of different assets it avoids painful assumptions which may be wrong about correlation, which is good when you know your sample is low quality
6) for long-short baskets of like assets it avoids painful assumptions about intercepts (and therefore betas)

Dealing with Losses.

Perfectionists are often motivated by avoidance. The need to avoid unpleasant emotional experiences. Traders who seek the perfect system are also likely to be motivated by the need to avoid unpleasant experiences.

With trading losses, the only pain that you will suffer is the emotional reaction to a loss. If you concentrate on avoiding losses rather than on maximizing your overall gain, you are unlikely to succeed at trading.

Traders may all incur the same loss but suffer vastly different emotional responses. A lot depends on their past experiences not only while trading but in the broader arena of life.

More competitive u are, More uncomfortable u are about taking loss. From an early age, we programmed to compete, to win, to accomplish, to be top of the class, to always be right & to succeed at whatever we set out to do. Losses are equated with losing to be avoided at all costs.

Newcomers to trading often start off with a string of positive experiences. Unfamiliar with the basics of money management, they are often over-confident and prepared to bet large amounts of their capital in the expectation of further gains.

You can get a sense for how much net stock @RobinhoodApp customers were buying from the size of capital RH just

The $1bn is to cover future possible activity, so it doesn't matter for looking backwards.

It does confirm that solvency concerns drove the restriction. You don't raise 1bn of equity to cover your tracks if nefarious, nor if the restrictions were a tap from regulators.

They drew $500-600m and presumably met their NSCC margin call with cushion. Say they posted $350m (guess - you don't draw $500m to post $62m and shut down trading methinks).

I did a quick guesstimate yesterday - 20m normal going to 200m on 4x VaR and 800m net unsettled buys of GME.

That ain't 350m. So either the size of GME buy and/or VaR multiple are ~2x that or DTCC demanded more than 10% margin on unsettled GME trades.

You can't get a tight range of what the net GME buy was outstanding without knowing more, but you can bound it - the net GME buy *10% < 500m so less than 5bn ... not v helpful frankly.

$LMND – Lemonade insurance, MEGA THREAD! 🥳

One of the longer ones, but we will come around the company, numbers, bull/bear-case, 2021 expectations, products, etc.

Always apricate a comment, retweet, and dialogue about these threads🥰

Hope you are ready🚀

1/x What they do

”Lemonade Insurance Company is transforming the very business model of insurance… Unlike any other insurance company, we gain nothing by delaying or denying claims (we take a flat fee!), so we handle and pay as many claims instantly as possible.”

2/x The company

👉4 years old
👉Hyper-scaleup
👉Not profitable
👉Using AI is their biggest advantage
👉+1M customers
👉They have 0 debt
👉+300 employees
👉+50 job openings atm
👉90 seconds to sign up
👉down to 3 seconds to get paid for a claim (avg. 1 day)

How they do:

3/x Funding💰

Lemonade Inc. is backed by investors including:

- Aleph
- General Catalyst
- GV (formerly Google Ventures)
- Sequoia Capital
- Thrive Capital
- SoftBank (biggest investor today, 21,18%)

The total money raised by the company to $480 million before IPO🤑🤑

4/x Data

- 87% of their customers are first-time policyholders
- 75% are younger than 34 years of age
- Biggest age group are 25-34 years with 63%
- 23,5% female / 76,5% male
- Customers Per human are outstanding
- Their prices are on average 68% cheaper than their competitors

1) There are several secrets to becoming a successful #investor and most are hiding in plain sight.

2) This many sound like a cliché, but it hides a simple truth: buy quality companies. When I started #investing, I didn't feel like I could identify quality, so I bought a subscription to @TheMotleyFool and let them do the heavy lifting.

3) I paid $199 per year each for @TheMotleyFool #StockAdvisor and #RuleBreakers subscriptions. They have paid for themselves MANY times over.

4) Another obvious strategy that FAR too many #investors ignore is that "winners keep winning." "That one got away from me, and now I'm waiting for a pullback" has probably lost investors more money than every pullback combined.

5) To put this into practice, I look at the recent list of @TheMotleyFool recommendations and see which #stocks have put up double- or triple-digits gains in recent months and then try to understand why. In many cases, I end up buying the stock, even after 30% 40% 50% gains.

1. Some initial thoughts on the U.K.-EU trade deal, in advance of seeing the text, which is reported to be 2,000 pages plus...A THREAD (1/10)

2. As has been said repeatedly, this is what was described at the start of the process as a hard Brexit: the U.K. will be outside the Single Market and the Customs Union. There will be no tariffs or quotas but customs checks etc will erect substantial trade barriers in EU trade

3.There will be nothing for services except in areas where the EU will unilaterally grant equivalence. The EU will play hardball on this eg at end Nov EU made it clear that European derivatives trading will be limited to platforms inside the EU or third countries with equivalence

4. There will be areas where some products will be excluded from the trade deal. Seed potatoes has been mentioned - there may be other surprises yet.

5. Who moved? It seems as if the U.K. moved substantially on fish and the EU moved on its initial position on the LPF and the arbitration mechanism: it wanted something which involved automatic ratcheting - it feels more like a standard FTA between EU and non-European countries.

Despite DII selling since Sept 2020, markets have continued to move up due to continued FII participation.

Demand recovery is still uncertain and uneven. Complete opening up of economy leads to the risk of a second wave.

COVID- A disguise in blessing. COVID has taught many businesses how to curtail expenses and improve margins.

"China +1" Theme can be a good opportunity for India

Capex Cycle Recovering

#Global #ETF Weekly & Month-end (thread): 29 Jan 2021

- 2020 worst perf #sector making comeback in 2021 $IXC

- This is helping #oil producing countries with #Nigeria & #UAE in top5 #Country ETF YTD performers in USD $NGE $UAE

- #SouthAfrica $EZA moved into top15 YTD performers

2/12

#EmergingMarkets #ETF still storming ahead against #DevelopedMarkets ETF, still not relatively "overbought" yet, but getting close.

#SouthAfrica might need a lot of catch up, but $EZA YTD performance in USD (+0.2%) continued 2nd half on 2020 recovery against $URTH (-0.8%)

3/12

#Global #Value #stocks still making short-term recovery, with $IWVL #ETF still looking strong relatively over the short-term. Over 3yr period it is however still lagging quite substantially.

4/12

This one is worrying, but then again, it's been for some time. #Global #Tech #stocks relative to #MSCI All Country World Index is definitely creating some concern. Be very careful.

$IXN vs $ACWI

5/12

#Internet companies still big driver on performance, with US Internet Co's #ETF growing 1.8% in January (YTD) in USD versus #MSCI World $URTH losing 0.8% over same period

#Chinese Internet Co's $KWEB however grew 13% in Jan. Wow! That helped #Naspers/#Prosus & also SA $EZA

1. You will read today many ignorant assertions, of this ilk ...

https://t.co/5d5jgqVDqI

... to the effect that the EU has introduced "significant barriers to free trade e.g. customs and regulatory checks".

But the EU has introduced no new barriers.

2. Simply, the UK has redefined itself as a "third country" and positioned itself outside the EU's existing regulatory

3. As a third country, it will now have to deal with all the pre-existing regulatory barriers that have been erected over time, which apply (to a greater or lesser extent) to other third countries.

4. The degree to which this trade deal is effective can be measured by the extent to which these entry is handicapped by these pre-existing barriers, and what steps have been agreed to mitigate the effects.

5. However, as long as the UK is a third country, outside the Single Market, traders will have to deal with significant entry barriers when sending goods to the EU. These are an unavoidable consequence of leaving the Single Market.

Friend: Suggest me a battery stock for long term.

Me: Why do you want to invest in battery stock?

Friend: Future is about EV so.

Me: Good :)

Me: Battery is going to be huge portion in EV price.

[1/n]

2/

Me: Since batteries is going to be major cost component I feel like big companies source raw materials like lithium, Nickel, Iron and setup their own plants for manufacturing those.

I would rather play passive on EV like embedded and IOT devices in EV, Charging stations etc.

3/

Companies like Tesla already have Gigawatt factories and planning to setup Terawatt factory within this decade.

Researching extensively on all life cycles of battery, from structure to packing.

Researching alternatives to lithium batteries, since lithium is scarce.

4/

Already Tesla found few potential replacements for Lithium, working on few challenges that are pised by potential elements and mentioned the same during this year investor meet.

If you guys know Elon then you'll be already knowing that he just doesn't give up.

5/

Indian companies like Tata Chemicals investing 4k Crores for plant and another 500-1000 crores for Battery recycling plant.

Big companies like Maruti already acquired land in Gujarath for this EV purposes.

Hitachi ABB power has fast charging technology.

(1) BELGIUM: @alexanderdecroo @GLBouchez @ducarmedenis Number of false PCR positives of asymptomatic people still high and obviously not showing right picture. Deaths way down and show the absolute uselessnes of mass testing.

(2) On top of that, overall mortality during expected winter resurgence not nearly as high as during first wave whatever the media may tell you. Excess mortality clearly above average for ONE MONTH in autumn.

(3) Graph missing last month so would be even more normal. The BE curve follows all models for new viruses that we saw ONE YEAR AGO. Measures have had extremely limited impact - arguable made the curves sharper and harder to deal with for hospitals (pp locked up = indoors).

(4) Mortality in BE within the usual threshold (Covid replacing influenza) for at least one month. Compare below to the narrative and you see that the virus is well on its way to becoming endemic. The winter "wave" has been over for a long time.

(5) Include in this the faulty PCR (most estimate 35% false positives and many declared + after they died, or when they died from other conditions, and a couple of things become obvious:

Educational Thread :

#trading

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Section 1 — Supply and Demand

Basic Trading Principles
Demand = Buyers
Buyers = Support

Supply = Sellers
Sellers = Resistance

Support will be the level at which demand will outweigh supply, causing the price to rise/increase.

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Resistance will be the level at which supply will outweigh demand, causing the price to fall/decrease.
Supply and demand zones in trading are usually liquidity pools.
When an asset illustrates a sharp rise or decline large institutional players (whales in the case of crypto)

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sometimes miss the entry or exit because of the size of the orders. When this happens they leave pending orders to buy or sell at the base of the liquidity zones, with the expectation that the price will return there to fill the remaining orders.

1/4
A high price rise zone is the demand zone (support) and the zone where price has made a sharp decline is the supply zone (resistance).
Demand Zone (Buyers Present)
Technical Analysis Term = Support