Friend: Suggest me a battery stock for long term.

Me: Why do you want to invest in battery stock?

Friend: Future is about EV so.

Me: Good :)

Me: Battery is going to be huge portion in EV price.

[1/n]

2/

Me: Since batteries is going to be major cost component I feel like big companies source raw materials like lithium, Nickel, Iron and setup their own plants for manufacturing those.

I would rather play passive on EV like embedded and IOT devices in EV, Charging stations etc.

3/

Companies like Tesla already have Gigawatt factories and planning to setup Terawatt factory within this decade.

Researching extensively on all life cycles of battery, from structure to packing.

Researching alternatives to lithium batteries, since lithium is scarce.

4/

Already Tesla found few potential replacements for Lithium, working on few challenges that are pised by potential elements and mentioned the same during this year investor meet.

If you guys know Elon then you'll be already knowing that he just doesn't give up.

5/

Indian companies like Tata Chemicals investing 4k Crores for plant and another 500-1000 crores for Battery recycling plant.

Big companies like Maruti already acquired land in Gujarath for this EV purposes.

Hitachi ABB power has fast charging technology.

Mkt view :
Only 290 companies trading above dec 2017 prices which was top of overall broader market. If one looks at nifty which is concentrated in 5 stocks, then it may scare them. Whereas individual stocks have yet lot of room to grow.

In history of markets, when interest rates can not grow and remain so low for another 1 year minimum then stock prices are bound to soar.

How to play in current markets :
1. Debt free and low working capital companies ( as% of sales) with less receivable days and small cash conversion cycles . This ensures company always has money to operate n stay afloat.

2. High growth companies with above 1st condition. Top line of 10% plus and bottom line of 25% plus consistently with increasing or stable operating margins make the company do better in robustness of share price.

In such pandemic corona conditions or earlier demonetization, nbfc liquidity crunch, ilfs, small & midcap dwnfall from 2018: if all of these situations can not stop these companies then What will?

#Global #ETF Weekly & Month-end (thread): 29 Jan 2021

- 2020 worst perf #sector making comeback in 2021 $IXC

- This is helping #oil producing countries with #Nigeria & #UAE in top5 #Country ETF YTD performers in USD $NGE $UAE

- #SouthAfrica $EZA moved into top15 YTD performers

2/12

#EmergingMarkets #ETF still storming ahead against #DevelopedMarkets ETF, still not relatively "overbought" yet, but getting close.

#SouthAfrica might need a lot of catch up, but $EZA YTD performance in USD (+0.2%) continued 2nd half on 2020 recovery against $URTH (-0.8%)

3/12

#Global #Value #stocks still making short-term recovery, with $IWVL #ETF still looking strong relatively over the short-term. Over 3yr period it is however still lagging quite substantially.

4/12

This one is worrying, but then again, it's been for some time. #Global #Tech #stocks relative to #MSCI All Country World Index is definitely creating some concern. Be very careful.

$IXN vs $ACWI

5/12

#Internet companies still big driver on performance, with US Internet Co's #ETF growing 1.8% in January (YTD) in USD versus #MSCI World $URTH losing 0.8% over same period

#Chinese Internet Co's $KWEB however grew 13% in Jan. Wow! That helped #Naspers/#Prosus & also SA $EZA

A lot has been written today about the $GME pump on /r/WallStreetBets from a financial angle.

But I think there's another angle - this it also works as a *multiplayer game* and one with an interesting design.

Don't believe me? Let's look at it structurally!

1/

WSB pump of $GME exhibits a number of gamelike elements:
1. resource mechanics
2. multiplayer social mechanics
3. progression mechanics
4. multi-system interactions
5. prediction complexity, and
6. a powerful player fantasy to tie them together

2/

1. Just by itself, the stock market is an engrossing game (for those who can afford the time and money). It's got a variety of simple resource mechanics (buy / sell stocks), more complex mechanics (buy / sell options), super complex mechanics (would you like some futures?) ... 3/

... and a very high analytic complexity (which mechanic should I apply to maximize return, short term or long term?).

Like in chess, this analysis is very hard but therefore interesting.

And the system gives somewhat clear feedback about how well you're playing ($$$). 4/

2. Now WSB specifically adds social mechanics. Being a lone wolf timing the market is one thing - but banding together to see what you can do together, now that's something else!

Specifically WSB allows not just socializing/meta, but also for coordination. 5/

$TSLAQ Instead of having an accrual palooza, I will dribble these out as I have time and available information. The first account to be reviewed: Automotive Leasing Revenues. The remainder of the planet calls this Sales-Type Leasing (ASC 842.) (1/n)

GAAP allows revenue recognition if a manufacture or dealer leases the preponderance of useful life and economic value of inventory. Computer manufactures are significant users of this accounting treatment. The journal entries for this type of leasing are: (2/n)

The sales are the present value of the payments plus down payment. COGS is the cost of the equipment less the present value of the residual payment. (3/n)

The final receivable entry is the residual value added to the lease payment receivable to remove inventory from the financial statements. $TSLA classifies the lease receivable as an Operating Lease Vehicles, net on the balance sheet and they are subject to depreciation. (4/n)

The assumptions in the calculation that can be subject to manipulation: the implicit interest rate of the lease and the residual payments. Lower rates increase capitalization of the lease which gives higher revenues. Larger residual decreases cost of goods sold. (5/n)

Ok, here's the $CRESY thread (also posted to https://t.co/fxuIdqDOtQ, where the format may be a bit easier to read).

I haven't been this excited about a position in a long time. I think $CRESY is worth far more than its $6 trading price today. Here's why...

Here's what we have...

More than 1.3M acres of wholly owned SA farmland (beef, corn, soy, sugarcane

62.4% stake in a truly impressive real estate portfolio - 15 malls, 4 skyscrapers, 3 luxury hotels, nearly 1000 acres of land in Buenos Aires and Montevideo, the Buenos Aires fairground, 2 convention centers, a consumer bank, a commercial bank, and an arena, and a US REIT.

A 50% stake in Argentina's biggest ag exchange, and a 22.5% stake in an Ag fintech platform that just raised more money than any Latin American agtech startup in history from Bay Area VCs.

The farming segment itself is profitable, and with the prices of all the commodities they produce skyrocketing, despite more than doubling since the March lows, CRESY is still trading lower YoY and seriously lagging its fundamentals.

Earnings are set to explode.

(1) BELGIUM: @alexanderdecroo @GLBouchez @ducarmedenis Number of false PCR positives of asymptomatic people still high and obviously not showing right picture. Deaths way down and show the absolute uselessnes of mass testing.

(2) On top of that, overall mortality during expected winter resurgence not nearly as high as during first wave whatever the media may tell you. Excess mortality clearly above average for ONE MONTH in autumn.

(3) Graph missing last month so would be even more normal. The BE curve follows all models for new viruses that we saw ONE YEAR AGO. Measures have had extremely limited impact - arguable made the curves sharper and harder to deal with for hospitals (pp locked up = indoors).

(4) Mortality in BE within the usual threshold (Covid replacing influenza) for at least one month. Compare below to the narrative and you see that the virus is well on its way to becoming endemic. The winter "wave" has been over for a long time.

(5) Include in this the faulty PCR (most estimate 35% false positives and many declared + after they died, or when they died from other conditions, and a couple of things become obvious:

With $GME hitting all time highs, making people millions & some even billions, let's take a look at one of the gaming companies set to IPO soon.

Time for a thread 👇 👇👇

1/ Roblox is like the world’s largest:

🏨 HOTEL COMPANY #AirBnB 👉 doesn’t own real estate
🚕 TAXI COMPANY #Uber 👉 doesn’t own any cars

AND

🎮 DIGITAL PLAYGROUND COMPANY #Roblox 👉 doesn’t create any games

2/ Digital Disney World.

Remember building imaginary forts with your friends in your backyard?

It's like that except digital, pros are building the structures and your parents are spending a lot of $$$ buying gear, digital pets and accessories.

Making $RBLX very rich!

3/ Business Model.

Online gaming platform where millions of kids (and some adults) come to play, learn, communicate, explore, and expand their friendships.

All in 3D digital worlds that are entirely user-built.

4/ Highlights.

- Founded in 2004
- $589MM revenue
- +170MM monthly active users (Oct 2020)
- Freemium, monthly subscription & one-time payments
- US$29.5B Valuation

I've been trying to understand for some time the impact of $GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) on the price of $BTC. Here's a good article to start, and here's a thread on my current thoughts...

There's no doubt that $GBTC has been a driving force in allowing investors to gain exposure to $BTC. For many investors, it provides the easiest way to get crypto exposure. As a result, $GBTC often trades at a large premium (20%-30%) over spot $BTC 2/9

Recently in January, $BTC prices have declined from a high of >$40k to <$30k (now back near $35k). $GBTC's premium to NAV has also dropped to <5% 3/9

It's worth understanding the mechanics of $GBTC. $GBTC allows accredited investors to buy private shares for 0% premium to NAV, and in return the accredited investors are locked up for 6 months. If you are a non-accredited investor, i.e. retail, you don't have this option 4/9

Many sophisticated investors have taken advantage of this arbitrage opportunity. One way an accredited investor can buy private shares of $GBTC is by depositing BTC (often times with leverage). In doing so, they can collect the $GBTC premium 5/9