BC TRADING
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

1/ I love learning about the markets. There are some brilliant people I’ve found on Twitter who have provided great insights (among others):

@JeffSnider_AIP
@LynAldenContact
@LukeGromen

But this thread is (mostly) about @profplum99

👇👇👇👇👇

 2/ Mike has an encyclopedic knowledge of market history. This interview by @DiMartinoBooth (who I also have a lot of respect for) puts that on clear display.

https://t.co/4hSd2TG4du

Mike’s explanation of passive investing and its effects on the markets was eye-opening.
3/ According to research conducted by Anadu et al for the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, passive funds made up 48% of US equity assets under management in March 2020. That number was just 14% in 2005. Meaning 8.6% annualized growth over 15 years.

https://t.co/ReuBiCAcPn
4/ Per Mike, “passive funds have this really simple algorithm: if you give me cash, I buy.” No fundamental valuation, just buying the current market-weighted index, which means a stock gets greater representation in your fund the higher its current market value.
5/ Employers and pension fund managers are predictably contributing to IRAs through fixed salary percentages on a monthly basis. And passive funds typically hold tens of basis points of cash on the sidelines because, per Mike, “it’s toxic to their business model.”
6/ I called one of my best friends, an investment advisor who I’ve known since grade 7 and said, “I gotta get a number—give me a number!” He immediately responded, “4”—his hockey jersey number—and then proceeded to tell me that active funds have four to 16% of their AUM in cash.
7/ So, thousands of percentage points higher than passive funds. Meaning trillions of dollars are being inefficiently (from an EMH perspective) pumped into the markets through a sheer desire to reduce fees—delaminating price from fundamental reality in an exponential function.
8/ All fuelled by MMT, negative real interest rates, towering debt levels, hyper-financialization, and millennials YOLOing stimulus checks into whatever the hell they want because they’re fed up with a system that appears unlikely to ever afford them a house with a fenced yard.
9/ Short interest is at an all-time high but the shorts are getting bankrupted because the whole thing is strapped to @elonmusk’s rockets 🚀—so far, the #Challenger hasn’t exploded yet, just Melvin Capital Management in its battle with #reddit traders over the value of #GME
10/ Took some #Bitcoin off the table a couple days ago. Thanks @profplum99. Need to attempt rationality in this market. The numbers are too big in the #USDT debacle and I don’t have any good reason to believe reserves are even close to backed 1:1.

Still a Bitcoin believer though
11/ With high volatility and variance/polarization, the markets and citizenry spend little time at the mean, but the older I get the more I realize #balance is important, as eloquently put by one of the best investors of 2020, @chamath, in his interview last year with @RaoulGMI
12/ I watched Mike’s debate with @nic__carter and came away convinced that my #Bitcoin thesis was still right. I immediately wrote a summary of the interview, mostly detailing my objections to Mike’s points (supported strongly by Nic’s great performance). https://t.co/zaDGja6433
13/ Only after I wrote that thread and declared my bias confirmed did I read the Crypto Anonymous paper and watch recent interviews with the executives at #Tether and #Deltec. “Hmm,” I thought, “why are so few Bitcoiners taking this seriously?”

Maybe Mike had a point...
14/ The likely Tether fraud absolutely needs to be taken seriously, but I still believe in #Bitcoin. The deeper I go in my study of the markets, the more I see relativism—ie, comparing one unhinged thing to another—and the less I see any fundamental grounding to economic reality.
15/ It’s like we went from a #Newtonian understanding of the world where gravity kept things in check to an #Einsteinian one where things now go boom in atomic positive feedback loops—eg, the only way out of a gargantuan debt bubble is by issuing exponentially more.
16/ I believe #Bitcoin can theoretically solve this, acting as a ballast in this wildly unstable economic experiment. @nic__carter was right: we have only been on this pure #fiat experiment for 50 years.
17/ In sum, thank you @profplum99. I’m learning a lot from you and will continue to listen with an open mind.

More from Trading

10-K Diver
10-K Diver
@10kdiver
1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, I'll help you understand Geometric Expectations.


2/

Imagine we have an investment opportunity.

If the investment goes well, we get to double our money.

But if it goes badly, we'll end up losing three fourths of it.

There's a 50/50 chance of either outcome.

The question: is this a good bet or not?

3/

A simple way to approach this question is to calculate the bet's "expectation".

For every $1 we bet, there are 2 possibilities:

1. The lucky case, where we double our money and end up with $2, and

2. The unlucky case, where we lose (3/4)'th to end up with just $0.25.

4/

Each of these outcomes is equally likely.

So, on *average*, every $1 we put in turns into ($2 + $0.25)/2 = $1.125.

This is a *positive* 12.5% return.

Such bets are called *positive expectation* bets. On average, we expect to *make* (rather than *lose*) money on them.

5/

Suppose we could take many turns betting at these odds.

In any one turn, we could of course lose money.

But because our bet has positive expectation, *over time* we expect to make money.
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Dr. Ellie Lockhart is the protagonist
Dr. Ellie Lockhart is ...
@BootlegGirl
OK, I guess I have a thing to say about the stock market. I have done kind of what these Reddit folks are doing with it, in that I have invested in the stock market when I was not at all rich, using parts of my paycheck that it probably wasn't wise to risk. I don't now. (thread)

But, like, it worked out okay for me. I even shorted some stuff. I didn't coordinate with anyone or whatever, but I don't think on the individual level the stock market is *inherently* malicious. If you're privileged, you're going to be exposed to it (through 401ks, etc.)

And I don't think it's wrong for people to try to make money off of it outside of the 401k/retirement context that's socially normal, *especially* if they're desperate like I was. There *are* strategies that you can use that, while risky, aren't exactly like gambling

Like, gambling is risky in a different way. You are always working with a fairly consistent set of probabilities in gambling, and they're never in your favor (outside of grey area gambling like between friends, where you could hypothetically actually still card count)

Anyway, like, on shorts: I don't think they're evil. I think they're dangerous. For an individual, a short always carries a small risk of individual bankruptcy. There's USUALLY not even a huge upside to them; they're not mystical or magical, they're basically reverse "longs"
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Trader knight
Trader knight
@Traderknight007
A thread on SCALING IN - OUT METHOD -


What is scaling in - out?

1. Scaling in is adding on to the positions when they move in our favor (Pyramiding).

2. Scaling - out is exiting the portion of the position when the trade moves in our favor.

I have explained about pyramiding in previous tweets.

// Why use scaling out instead of exiting all position at once ?

When you are using ALL - out method where you exit positions at once, mostly you use wider Trail SL as you want to capture big moves and exit all when trail sl hits.

The problem with this method is that either you make too big or many times your medium size winners turns out to become Scratch trades.

So, when we use the scaling out method, we are trying to capture most of our medium size trades , so that they do not turn into scratch trades.

// How to use scaling out method -

Say we have to got a signal to enter in a trade, and we have to buy 1200 qty according to our Position sizing.

So, we have to divide this 1200 qty into parts, how much? It depends on you.

We can divide into 3 parts, each part 400 qty.
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Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
I spent over 100 hours studying the best patterns in Technical Analysis taught to me by @niki_poojary.

Turns out, patterns trading is simple—if you follow these 8 Patterns:

Let's start: ↓

While studying her Twitter profile and with constant talks with her, I found these to be the most important patterns she focuses on always.

Then I wrote a small summary of what each pattern means.

Also attached are some examples from her tweets.

1/ Cup and handle Pattern

Happens during an uptrend.

The cup portion has a U-shaped appearance.

The bears are getting weaker as they are unable to drive the prices below the last low.

Subhasish Pani uses this a lot in stocks to spot bullish trades.


Eg


Eg
ALL , TRADING
Gordon Gekko
Gordon Gekko
@GordunGekko
A small thread on momentum investing and how I practice it.

I use the Nifty 500 universe for selecting my momentum stocks. Nifty 500, as the name suggests, has 500 companies in it. WRONG !!!! It actually has 501 companies. Yes, I double-checked 🙂 So, these 501 companies is

my talent pool (if you will) from which I select the 50 best candidates that I want to bet my money on.

Ok. So, exactly, did I go about doing that.

Step 1: Start with Nifty 500 universe (501 companies)

Step 2: Eliminate all those companies which have a listing history of

less than 1 year. This eliminated 25 companies (see table).

Step 3: For the remaining 476 companies, I computed their last 12-month rolling price returns (meaning, comparison of their price as on March 31, 2022 as compared to that as on March 31, 2021, and then computing the %


gain that each of those stocks have earned. I found out the following:

a) Average return of all the 476 companies was 43.27% (meaning if their average price as on March 31, 2021 was 100, then their average price as on March 31, 2022 was 143.27)

b) Out of these 476 companies

140 companies, gave a negative return.

c) Out of the balance 336 companies, 46 companies gave single-digit returns

d) Out of the balance 290 companies, 101 companies gave a return between 10-30%

e) Out of the balance 189 companies, 55 gave returns between 30-50%
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For fun I made a Robinhood account. It took me 5 minutes to sign up, get approved and transfer funds for trading...

Here's some details... Read on.

...it took me another 5 minutes to get qualified for options.

If I share a sign up I get "free shares" and I can share as much as I want up to 500$ worth.

The main UI has a prepopulated "list" of stocks/crypto to watch and links to news.


Clicking a stock opens a "trade" button that looks like this.

Notice options is first, buy second.

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Art Historian* \U0001fa94
Art Historian* 🪔...
@Arthistorian18
The last Hindu king of Pakistan.

The name Amarkot is known to all in our subcontinent as the birthplace of Emperor Akbar. When Humayun was fleeing from Sher Shah, Rana Prasad of Amarkot sheltered him and this is where Emperor Akbar was born.

#Thread
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@talesofBharat


They have always maintained friendly relations with the rulers. The Mughal court and the Rana of Amarkot had special respect because Emperor Akbar was born in the shelter of Amarkot Raj. They did not even have to attend court regularly.

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Dara Shikohar provided Rana supplies to Amarkot during his expedition to Kandahar.
But another reason why the name of this Amarkot is inextricably linked with the history of the subcontinent is the partition of the country.
Sodha is the family name of the Maharajas of..

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Amarkot,They were originally known as Sodha Rajputs. Despite possessing a very small kingdom, he was far ahead in terms of wealth and honor. During the British rule, Rana Ratan Singh led the anti-British movement in Sindh. In 1753, the British occupied the state of Amarkot,
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which was his and his ancestral home, and hanged Rana Ratan Singh on a high platform on the walls of Amarkot fort. It hangs in front for a few days. Even today, a folk song called "Mor tor tilaya rana" is very popular in Sindhi language.
After the capture of the fort by the
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Nick Kapur
@nick_kapur
A thread of images from a Japanese illustrated history of America from 1861.

Here is George Washington (with bow and arrow) pictured alongside the Goddess of America. 1/


Here is Christopher Columbus (seated at center) reporting his discovery of America to Queen Isabella of Spain.

So far, kinda normal, but wait for it.... 2/


Now it's the American Revolution. Here is George Washington defending his wife "Carol" from a British official named "Asura" (same characters as the Buddhist deity). 3/


And here is Washington's "second-in-command" John Adams battling an enormous snake. 4/


Here is Washington and his wife "Carol" meeting an extremely youthful Benjamin Franklin, who has an impressive squat. 5/
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@VIBHU_Tweet
IT WAS RISHI KANADA WHO GAVE THE ATOMIC THEORY & TALKED ABOUT THE GRAVITY OF EARTH, 2600 YEARS BEFORE AN APPLE FELL IN FRONT OF NEWTON'S EYES:

Scientists of the modern world credit an English scientist John Dalton (1766 CE -1844 CE) for the Atomic Theory.


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