[thread] on "sovereignty"

"Some fears have been expressed that if Britain joins the Common Market she will cease to be able to formulate her own foreign policy and will lose her separate identity. "

THREAD
1. Anyone who thinks English exceptionalism, nationalism and ‘regulatory realignment’ - the root drivers of Brexit - would have ended with a ‘soft brexit’ ie a customs union or a Norwegian style deal, misunderstands what brexit has always been about.

2. ‘No-deal’ has always been the logical goal for those who’ve driven the brexit agenda. The question @UKLabour should be asking the govt is, ‘what part of the ‘level playing field’ do you want to change? Food standards? Env protections? Workers rights?

3. The issue of fish, whilst playing to worst instincts of territorial jingoism is, excuse the pun, a red herring. This is about phase 2 of the neoliberal project. Building on the gains of the last 40 years.

4. The reality for those who want to challenge this grim trajectory is to understand phase 2 will be about hollowing out what’s left of our democracy as @FisherAndrew79 eloquently argues

5. The crisis of democracy, which brexit is but the latest manifestation, is what we must mobilise against. So many other issues are but symptoms of this underlying malaise.

🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🇮🇪🚚🚚🇬🇧🇪🇺🚨

As #brexit talks drift towards the rocks, trade groups say plans for Irish Sea trade border after Brexit are ‘in a mess’ via, my latest via @FT ...this is an issue coming deal or no deal. Stay with me 1/


So to recap, under Northern Ireland protocol negotiated in the Withdrawal Agreement all goods going from Great Britain to NI must confirm with EU customs code. To avoid new border in Ireland, that means trade border in Irish Sea - new paperwork, new systems. Operational Jan 1/2

The problem is that because the FTA negotiations are stuck, the negotiations in the Joint Committee on how to implement the Protoocl (and @michaelgove is with @MarosSefcovic talking today) haven't yet born fruit. That means a LOT of uncertainty. /3

@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic How much uncertainty? Well, as @MichaelAodhan tells me, a lot. Research by the Northern Ireland Business Brexit Working Group (NIBBWG) found only 20% of members were ready. And its not their fault: need info on tarifs, computer systems etc. And are not getting answers /3

@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan Now. The Government has earmarked £200m for the Trade Support Service run by Fujitsu and the Customs Clearance Consortium with @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 to help business process new paperwork...BUT even it cannot answer lots of Qs, and won't help with animal/SPS issues. /4

Breathless accounts of brilliant negotiating are oddly unaccompanied by statements of UK wins.

Twice the PM has signed up to deals he previously said no PM could sign up for. The level of self-deception in turning these into triumphs is off the scale.

A wise man has suggested that Johnson's self delusions are good for the UK in the way he folds under EU pressure but denies it - that this actually delivers the best result.

But it doesn't do much for the country's politcal debate to have such delusions at the heart of the most important economic relationship. And they don't have such delusions in Belfast.

Perhaps it is the way of UK politics that no leader can be seen to be pro-EU, that the UK must be seen to be bigger than the EU, even though the UK is obviously smaller and needs the EU for trade.

1. Brexit. Like Christmas with Covid or dunking your head in a bucket of ice cold water or running your toes over with a lawnmower. What fun we did not have. But here we all are. Forced to play the worst ever drunken party game.

THREAD

2. So as we while away our time, whooping it up from lockdown, wondering at the next national crisis, let us ponder this week’s existential question: how can a Brexit deal be so close and yet so far away?

3. Is it close? Is it far away? Are we doomed or saved? And even if we’re saved are we in fact doomed?

It’s all too much. Like playing zenga with no twig things or scrabble with no letters. My head is spinning. Pass me the whisky and egg my nog.

4. To generalize (why not, everyone else does) Brexit commentary tends to fall into two illustrious camps both full of the wisest of sages.

5. The first reflects upon Mr Johnson’s character and political track record, the many hard as you like pronouncements emanating from various government orifices and the most peculiar composition of the Conservative Party, to arrive at an understandably unhappy conclusion.

Along the way I wrote about considering Johnson’s Brexit decision as a choice between clichéd narratives. What would read / play best? Well...

It is absolutely no surprise to me that he ended up choosing the ending that would most easily portray him as the hero who saved the day.

The tricky part of this narrative is convincing re the ‘not giving in’ part. Hence all the bluster about standing tough and being happy to walk away.

And yet.

I’m old enough to remember when we wouldn’t accept any LPF provisions, any state aid constraints and we wanted all our fish back right now. Otherwise it’s an ‘Australia’ style Brexit.

TRAGIC..
"And so it came to pass that alleged Prime Minister Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson travelled to Brussels to personally take charge of the Brexit trade deal negotiations. He alone could break the deadlock, put the dastardly Eurocrats in their place and snatch victory

Thread: My Mum the Brexit voter.

My mum is a working class single single mum of mixed race children.

We grew up in a council house on a horrid estate

Though she now retrained she was, throughout my life, employed in menial jobs or unemployed. Some times were okayish

Some times were awful. I hold a distinct memory from age 14ish - my old shoes got a huge hole in them. Unable to afford new shoes, I wore my mum's trainers, 1.5 sizes too small. I still get those familiar foot cramps even now, age 29 and a half. I digress. The okay-notokay times

Endured into my uni years. I was lucky to join a year BEFORE the tuition fee rises. My mum commented to me "they don't people like us, our kind, lads like you at uni". That was 2010s. The resentment, in me and her, was already tangible. Cameron the enemy already. This remained so

For a while. My mum was not very political and never voted. From 2010-2016 her only political commentary came came maybe 2 or 3 times a year, in which she believed Cameron-Osborne had some agenda against her as a single working class mum. That resentment and paranoia built.

In 2014/15, she didn't vote. She expressed regret as she felt bad for Ed Miliand. Why? Because in a Q+A session on disability grants (we had a severely disabled cousin, mitochondria syndrome) he used those underrated words - "I Don't Know." But promised he'd revise it as he

BREXIT DEAL- THREAD:

I shall vote for the agreement reached with the European Union. I shall do so not because it is perfect - far from it - but because it is the least worst of the options available. 1/24

To have ended the transition period with no deal at all would, I believe, have resulted in an economic stress and uncertainty that, on top of the damage caused to our economy by coronavirus, that would be quite simply unsustainable. 2/24

It appears to me, however, that we have spent the last four years and huge amounts of time, money and political capital reinventing the wheel. 3/24

The suggestion that we have “achieved a trade deal worth six hundred and fifty billion pounds “with the European Union has all the hallmarks of a “side- of- the-campaign- bus” slogan about it that is, to say the least, disingenuous. 4/24

What we are now presented with is an agreement that delivers most but not all of the trade arrangements that we previously enjoyed with the remaining twenty-seven countries of the European Union with strings attached and no further say in policy or regulation. 5/24

1/ As Brexit talks enter what might be their last few hours, the key hurdle to overcome is how to agree on what the EU calls 'managed divergence' and the UK has dubbed 'lightning tariffs'. Despite the doom and gloom, there are signs the sides aren't quite as far apart as appears.

2/ The EU has dropped its insistence on a 'ratchet clause' which would have formalised the principle both sides should keep up with each other's standards. It's now ready to cater for divergence in the future so long as there are strong safeguards to rebalance unfair competition.

3/ This is a shift from the EU, which previously rejected managed divergence as too messy and risky for its economies. They worried it would create constant uncertainty for them. It thus represents a fair departure from the EU's opening position on LPF.

4/ There is a difference between having a commitment to match standards hard-wired into the deal, failure to comply with which would be a breach of the agreement, and a mechanism written into the text catering for a decision to diverge and accept rebalancing measures in return.

5/ What the sides are now trying to thrash out is how unfair competition would be defined, the process for triggering rebalancing measures, and how extensive they'd be. The EU originally wanted the Commission to have the unilateral right to apply them - hence 'lightning tariffs'.

It's now looking quite likely that Brexit will coincide with both a third lockdown and - if the longterm forecasts are correct - severe flooding.
Any one of these events would be a national crisis.
Together they could amount to a national catastrophe.
God help us.

Our government has a track record of:
- ignoring warnings
- leaving the necessary action to the last possible minute
- then bungling it
- using a crisis to enrich its friends and advance its political agenda
- leaving the poorest and most vulnerable to sink or swim

These tendencies, in combination with a possible concatenation of crises, present a severe threat to our wellbeing. We are not in good hands.

So once again we will have to rely on each other. It's going to be a hard grind in early 2021, perhaps the hardest many people in the UK will ever have experienced.
To the greatest extent possible, we'll have to support each other - materially and psychologically.

Of course, there's no complete substitute for good governance. The ideal combination is a strong society and a responsible government. But as we don't have the latter, we'll need to be as strong together as we can.