BC BREXIT
Saved by @Alex1Powell

OK, it can be avoided no more.

This is perhaps the most complex 🧵 on #Brexit I've ever attempted. But this issue really matters.

Business, possibly even lives, depend on getting this stuff right.

It is about the complexity of Brexit delay, and what to do about it.

1/25

 If negotiations had gone to plan, it would have worked thus:

1️⃣ 🇬🇧&🇪🇺 agree a Deal, politically
2️⃣ That is then turned into a legally ratifiable text
3️⃣ Both sides then ratify - on 🇪🇺 side Member States and the EP, 🇬🇧 side the Houses of Parliament
4️⃣ Deal in force 1.1.2021

2/25
The problem: we do not have 1️⃣ yet.

And with just over 16 days to go - including 🌲 - we do not have time for 2️⃣ and 3️⃣ and hence no 4️⃣.

We *might* have time for 2️⃣ - and that could prove to be significant (see tweet 7 below), but definitely not 3️⃣ on 🇪🇺 side.

3/25
*Essential* problem: by having spent so long talking (I think 🇬🇧 tactic has been to run down the clock - https://t.co/8EJZAJZHqz ) the path to a normal ratification is now ⛔️.

Now ratification becomes harder - legally, politically, practically - with every passing hour.

4/25
The most obvious stumbling block is...

🥁🥁🥁

... the European Parliament!

Parliamentary sovereignty, eh? A topic for another time.

Anyway, the EP has said it will not vote on a Brexit Deal this year.

https://t.co/m2GvroyskE

5/25
So even if 1️⃣ 🇬🇧&🇪🇺 agree, politically in the next few days, you cannot achieve 3️⃣ that both sides ratify.

But what about 2️⃣ - that there even is a text to ratify?

Here is where it gets interesting.

6/25
If there *is* a legal text available to ratify, 🇪🇺 Member States can approve by written procedure (i.e. swift), & 🇬🇧 Lords and Commons can pass primary legislation in a day if they need to.

But the EP says it won't be bounced into doing that. It takes scrutiny seriously.

7/25
So what's the solution?

PROVISIONAL APPLICATION of the Treaty is an option - i.e. meaning that the approval of the European Parliament would come after 1 January. The Council (i.e. the Member States) can decide whether to take that route.

https://t.co/zBoRrlzG7V

8/25
But of course the European Parliament refuses that - as it would just have to rubber stamp a Deal under duress and after the fact.

The EP might, after some howling, do it, but its MEPs are not happy.

https://t.co/Z0eJ6OtwWr

9/25
Also were EP to decide after the fact... what about other players?

This aspect has been a bit murky - it looks like Member States have OKed the idea a Deal would be an EU-only agreement, not a Mixed Agreement needing 27+ national ratifications.

https://t.co/vLfoQshDbn

10/25
But if the EP can decide after the fact, and time is then not so important, why shouldn't everyone *else* have their say then too?

Count yourself lucky, 🇬🇧, that Wallonia has no coastline!

https://t.co/sMKJqK8tOM

Basically: PROVISIONAL APPLICATION is a headache.

11/25
And there is another 🤕

PROVISIONAL APPLICATION only works if you have a text ready to ratify. And currently we do not... and we know that the Deal will be 600+ pages long.

12/25
I presume the non-controversial bits of the text have been translated already, but from agreement to ratifiable text... needs some time.

If there is no agreement by end of this week, perhaps start of next week at the *very latest*, forget this route as well.

13/25
Then we get to some even more 🤯 options.

Steve Peers has mused whether RETROACTIVE APPLICATION could work - essentially a Deal after 1 Jan, but the costs incurred (e.g. tariffs) in the interim reimbursed.

https://t.co/u8V5fq4ihy

14/25
This one would be a practical nightmare - especially if it were not known how long that period would last. And businesses would have to make all their tariff calculations *anyway*.

15/25
And you could combine RETROACTIVE APPLICATION with PROVISIONAL APPLICATION to shorten the interim period.

Confused yet?

Or, perhaps more importantly, do you think Boris Johnson understands this?

16/25
Also RETROACTIVE APPLICATION essentially means a period of No Deal, although if it were known that a Deal were forthcoming that might limit the likely panic.

But...

🥁🥁🥁

... trade nerds to the rescue!

17/25
Another way to bridge the period of No Deal could be to use GATT Article XXIV 5(c) - to not apply tariffs in this interim period.

https://t.co/VU2lPCkK5o

18/25
And you would probably not need an agreed legal text for that - both sides agreeing they would be OK with this would probably be OK.

https://t.co/V12xdXbnH8

But both sides would still have to want to do it...

19/25
Using GATT Article XXIV 5(c) could also be complemented by the CONTINGENCY MEASURES proposed by the European Commission (these need to be approved by the European Parliament as well - vote 18 Dec)

They cover 🚛🛫🛬 & 🎣

https://t.co/5LUBrWkAds

20/25
Another solution would be a sort of STANDSTILL ARRANGEMENT - i.e. a couple of paragraphs Treaty (that, yes, would have to be provisionally applied - FTW!) that would essentially buy all the institutions some more time.

Detail scarce on this so far

https://t.co/H4N4eNTKLs

21/25
So what do we conclude here?

FIRST, time still matters - getting an agreement ASAP would keep the PROVISIONAL APPLICATION route open. Waiting until 🌲 to agree closes that route.

22/25
SECOND, any of these options is fraught with complexity and difficulty, and some combination of the 5 of them (PROVISIONAL APPLICATION, RETROACTIVE APPLICATION, GATT Article XXIV 5(c), CONTINGENCY MEASURES and STANDSTILL ARRANGEMENT) could be needed.

23/25
There might, just might, be a way through all of this yet...

24/25
... and all of this is because the man in 10 Downing Street is too scared to take a decision.

Thanks, Johnson.

25/25

More from Jon Worth

Jon Worth
Jon Worth
@jonworth
To those saying that those who have got their public health advice wrong earlier in the pandemic should put up their hands and apologise... a little cautionary lesson from another sector

A short 🧵

1/

Public health is not my thing

But Brexit is

And throughout 2019 and 2020 I have been trying to make predictions as to what will happen in that story. Lives do not depend on this, only my professional reputation (marginally) does

2/12

The three series of #BrexitDiagram I made in 2019 were extraordinarily accurate

Series 1/2
https://t.co/wOSzIXxJ2M

Series 3
https://t.co/E4fKeGoa5n

Series 4
https://t.co/yRsQ8mLGj1

Each series got that stage of Brexit right

3/12

The 2020 series was nowhere near as good - at one stage I had No Deal Brexit at 78% chance in early December - and that was not what

I own this error - I was wrong

I know *why* I was wrong - I thought the European Parliament would fight more on Provisional Application, and I thought agreeing everything in a week wouldn't work. I wasn't right

The Manston crisis / borders closing changed something too

5/12
HEALTH
Jon Worth
Jon Worth
@jonworth
Next week is shaping up to be one hell of a week in 🇬🇧 politics

It all revolves around parliamentary sovereignty, Tory party shenanigans, and Johnson's need to survive and if that contradicts with doing the right thing

Bear with me - this is messy but important

1/12

Why will it be hellish?

We *know* that there will be a vote on Coronavirus Tier system on Tue 1 Dec, with the system to come into force from the end of 2 Dec

There *might* be a Brexit Deal at the start of next week as well, and Johnson having to OK it or not

2/12

Coronavirus first

I am not well placed to judge whether the Tier system is right (don't @ - reply me about that), but it's enough to say there are 3 grounds for critique
- do lockdowns work?
- does THIS lockdown system work?
- has my town/region been harshly treated?

3/12

Those are enough grounds for plenty of parliamentary opposition on the Tory benches, and on opposition benches too.

Labour could easily justify voting against in that some of the judgments on Tiers are not strictly based on the science

But what does voting *against* mean?

4/12

Were the vote lost, there would be little or no actual practical consequence regarding the Coronavirus restrictions - as discussed with Adam Wagner the government would almost certainly table Regulations using its emergency powers
POLITICS
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Jon Worth
Jon Worth
@jonworth
A quick thread about night trains

The transport ministers from 🇩🇪🇦🇹🇫🇷🇨🇭, and the CEOs of the state-owned 🚅 operators in each (DB, ÖBB, SNCF, SBB), held a press conference about night trains today...

This slide summarises what they'd agreed


Don't get me wrong: night trains are *good*, and the trains on these routes will be ÖBB NightJet services, and ÖBB runs the best night trains there are in Europe.

I personally will be very happy to take these trains.

But so much for the good news.

Most of these routes have *already* been announced (Zürich to BCN, Rome, Amsterdam) - see https://t.co/7JnAo74tIX

Or have been even trialled (Vienna-Brussels) - see

That means only really the parts of the trains going to Paris and Berlin are in some way new - and even then we don't know how this will work (old Berlin-Paris night train went *through* Brussels)

In short: we're talking today about something like 4-6 new train services a day

In comparison: DB has 400 ICE units, SNCF 600 TGVs.

All of this is a *drop in the ocean*.
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Jon Worth
Jon Worth
@jonworth
"Red wall voters will not forgive Boris Johnson if he sells out to get a trade deal with Brussels, polls show"

It's in The Sun. Harry Cole wrote it...

So let's dig a

The poll was done by @SavantaComRes and the PDF of the results is here:

P. 57
If this 'no deal' scenario occurs, to what extent would you be
more or less likely to vote Conservative at the next General Election?

+ likely, total: 20%
no difference: 41%
- likely, total: 32%

P. 59

I don't actually know what these questions mean

"The UK establishes a new relationship with the EU that is based on EU law" What *is* that?


"The UK maintains political alignment with the EU after the Brexit Transition Period, such as a common foreign and security policy" What is political alignment? And does CFSP work?

"The UK cannot pass its own laws and ensure its courts enforce them" Oh come on.
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Jon Worth
Jon Worth
@jonworth
OK, so it's a fortnight away - the "Digital Party Conference" of the CDU to decide who the next party leader will be

And whoever wins this is going to have a good chance of being Chancellor, succeeding Merkel after the election in September this year

There are three main candidates in the running - all middle aged men from Nordrhein Westfalen
- Friedrich Merz
- Armin Laschet
- Norbert Röttgen

So who's going to win?

For ages it looked like Laschet was the clear front runner. Prime Minister of Nordrhein Westfalen (NRW), and with a kind of folksy-beergarten manner, it looked good for him.

But then came COVID, and in the first wave it looked like NRW was pushing to open up too early, and questions started to be raised as to whether he would be up to the job...

Laschet's star is falling

The candidate profiting is Merz. The comeback kid at 65 years of age would take the CDU more to the right - which seems to be what a slew of the 1001 delegates (esp those from the states of eastern Germany) want. That despite the pragmatic line of Merkel being +popular than ever.
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The important difference between AstraZeneca's relationship with the UK and with the EU, and the reason it has fallen behind schedule on 50m vaccine doses promised to the EU, is that the UK agreed the deal with AZ a full three months before the EU did - which gave...

AZ an extra three months to sort out manufacturing and supply problems relating to the UK contract (there were plenty of problems). Here is the important timeline. In May AZ reached agreement with Oxford and the UK government to make and supply the vaccine. In fact Oxford...

had already started work on the supply chain. The following month AZ reached a preliminary agreement with Germany, the Netherlands, France and Italy, a group known as the Inclusive Vaccine Alliance, based on the agreement with the UK. The announcement was 13 June. BUT the EU...

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What is frustrating for AZ is that the extra talks with the European Commission led to no material changes to the contract, but wasted time on making arrangements to make the vaccine with partner sites. The yield at these partner sites has been lower than expected. The problem...
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John Lichfield
John Lichfield
@john_lichfield
Fish thread.
Having read the Brexit deal, I believe B. Johnson misled the nation on Thurs when he said Britain could catch “all the fish that it wants ” in UK waters in 5 years’ time. The clear presumption in the text is that EU fleets will have similar access after 2026.1/12

The UK fish industry will have to pay a high price in EU import tariffs if that access is withdrawn. Overall… the deal falls far short of the exaggerated “sea of opportunity” promises made to UK fishermen. 2/12

The headline quota compromise - reducing EU catches in the UK 200 mile zone by 25% over five and a half years – is balanced enough. But different fishers will study the small-print with delight OR anger. Some EU quotas will be cut more than others. 3/12

Fisheries, we were told, would be a big Brexit winner. No it won’t. On this deal, the UK industry will certainly lose more from Brexit (no more frictionless access to the EU market) than it gains (incremental, extra quotas over the next 5 years). 4/12

First…the length of the deal. The 5 and 1/2 years of cuts in EU quotas/increases in UK quotas, are laid out in annexes to the main treaty. The last column says “2026 onwards” In other words, the presumption is there will be no further cuts in EU quotas after that date. 5/12
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Anton Spisak
Anton Spisak
@AntonSpisak
Amid all the announcements today, it's easy to overlook that the OBR has updated its scenario on a no-deal Brexit. It exposes an undeniably hard reality for the Govt that claims that the UK would "prosper mightily" under no-deal next year.

(Short thread)

1. Key chart: a no-deal/WTO/Australia-style Brexit would delay the point at which econ output regains its pre-virus peak by "almost a year to the third quarter of 2023."

In the upside scenario, this cross-over point could be at the start of 2022; in the downside, in 2025. Grim.


2. Next year, a no deal Brexit would reduce real GDP by around a further 2% - as a result of immediate disruption to the border and uncertainty facing businesses. That's on top of the Covid-related contraction.


3. While there's some short-term border disruption, most of the costs come in the medium term: from lost employment; productivity losses; lower business investment.

Exactly the opposite of what the Chancellor said to @AndrewMarr9 on Sunday.

4. Underneath these numbers, output would fall *below* the Covid levels for several key sectors: Manufacturing, professional services, financial services, retail, energy.

All trade intensive sectors that have been spared the same drop in output as the non-tradables this year.
BREXIT
Rem Korteweg
Rem Korteweg
@remkorteweg
On March 17, the Netherlands will have general elections.

Two parties - PVV & FVD - want a Nexit, a departure from the EU, in line with Brexit.

As the reality of the EU-UK trade agreement kicks in, let's take a look at what these parties

Firstly, good to note, here is their recent polling,

PVV: 14% - 23 seats (currently 20 seats)
FVD: 2.5% - 4 seats (currently 2 seats)

A government needs 76 seats to govern.

Give or take, these parties appeal to about 20% of the electorate.

/2

FVD wants a so-called "intelligent Nexit" because - arguably - they think the UK's departure was not-so-intelligent.

"Intelligent" Nexit. Lots of nodding

But FVD doesn't want to leave the EU, they want an end to the EU.

/3

They want a "different cooperation model among sovereign states" based around free trade, conveniently assuming that the EU will automatically cease to exist once the Dutch vote 'Leave'.

And EFTA should be the basis for the new model.

/4

It's full-on 'magical thinking'.

If you want to join EFTA, sure, make the case.

But be truthful about what it means.

The FVD decides to disregard the EEA agreement, which governs trade between the EFTA-4 and the EU27, and the EU rules and regs that EFTA countries follow.

/5
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David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Today's UK-EU trade deal reflection - what is rarely stated in discussions about the deal's shortcomings is that they reflect UK government policy choices - in particular that control of immigration and a US trade deal are a higher priority than an EU deal.

Thus, why was it not a UK government priority to secure for UK musicians the rights to tour the EU? Because that would probably have required a reciprocal right to be given to those in the EU, which we didn't want to give. Choice.

Meanwhile why did the UK government not seek or secure a reduction in food inspections for GB products going to the EU? Because that would probably have required fixing food regulations in a way that might have been an obstacle to a US trade deal.

Works the other way as well. Why did the EU refuse UK requests on mutual recognition of industrial testing? In part at least because of UK lack of commitment on maintaining the previous EU system of standards and conformity assessment which might be a problem in a US deal.

One of the strangest opinions in the London politics bubble is that the UK government isn't that bothered about a US trade deal, as it so obviously goes against the evidence. There might be domestic opposition, but this was to be Brexit Dividend Number 1.
BREXIT

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