To those saying that those who have got their public health advice wrong earlier in the pandemic should put up their hands and apologise... a little cautionary lesson from another sector

A short 🧵

1/

Public health is not my thing

But Brexit is

And throughout 2019 and 2020 I have been trying to make predictions as to what will happen in that story. Lives do not depend on this, only my professional reputation (marginally) does

2/12
The three series of #BrexitDiagram I made in 2019 were extraordinarily accurate

Series 1/2
https://t.co/wOSzIXxJ2M

Series 3
https://t.co/E4fKeGoa5n

Series 4
https://t.co/yRsQ8mLGj1

Each series got that stage of Brexit right

3/12
The 2020 series was nowhere near as good - at one stage I had No Deal Brexit at 78% chance in early December - and that was not what happened

https://t.co/WNM4ip9HXs

4/12
I own this error - I was wrong

I know *why* I was wrong - I thought the European Parliament would fight more on Provisional Application, and I thought agreeing everything in a week wouldn't work. I wasn't right

The Manston crisis / borders closing changed something too

5/12
But what happened in the public reaction?

Last year did anyone go "you predicted it all right at every turn"? No, not a bit. People were grateful for how the diagrams explained everything, but praise for my prediction ability was not forthcoming

6/12
Now plenty of people are happy to rub my nose it it for getting this round wrong - even though I acknowledge I got it wrong publicly, and know why I got it wrong, and should be better in future

7/12
And some of those critics have even questioned whether I should even make judgments on *anything* else - having got 1 of the 4 phases of Brexit wrong

8/12
This also explains why much of the public political 'analysis' we read is not very clear and categoric in its recommendations or predictions - because it means it is then harder to be shown to have been wrong later

9/12
It was similar re. my UK tactical voting advice in 2019 - the vast vast majority of the advice was correct, but the attacks for having only relatively late changed Kensington to the correct recommendation outweighed the whole positive feedback

10/12
Putting your hands up and saying "I got that wrong" is damned hard, and having felt the reaction on something as minor as a Brexit prediction, I dread to think of the what the reactions would be if you had to do that on a matter of life and death

11/12
What's the solution?

I don't know.

But expecting people to own up to an error, when the price for doing so seems greater than the acclaim ever received for having got it right looks to be a long shot.

12/12

More from Jon Worth

Next week is shaping up to be one hell of a week in 🇬🇧 politics

It all revolves around parliamentary sovereignty, Tory party shenanigans, and Johnson's need to survive and if that contradicts with doing the right thing

Bear with me - this is messy but important

1/12

Why will it be hellish?

We *know* that there will be a vote on Coronavirus Tier system on Tue 1 Dec, with the system to come into force from the end of 2 Dec

There *might* be a Brexit Deal at the start of next week as well, and Johnson having to OK it or not

2/12

Coronavirus first

I am not well placed to judge whether the Tier system is right (don't @ - reply me about that), but it's enough to say there are 3 grounds for critique
- do lockdowns work?
- does THIS lockdown system work?
- has my town/region been harshly treated?

3/12

Those are enough grounds for plenty of parliamentary opposition on the Tory benches, and on opposition benches too.

Labour could easily justify voting against in that some of the judgments on Tiers are not strictly based on the science

But what does voting *against* mean?

4/12

Were the vote lost, there would be little or no actual practical consequence regarding the Coronavirus restrictions - as discussed with Adam Wagner the government would almost certainly table Regulations using its emergency powers
OK, it can be avoided no more.

This is perhaps the most complex 🧵 on #Brexit I've ever attempted. But this issue really matters.

Business, possibly even lives, depend on getting this stuff right.

It is about the complexity of Brexit delay, and what to do about it.

1/25

If negotiations had gone to plan, it would have worked thus:

1️⃣ 🇬🇧&🇪🇺 agree a Deal, politically
2️⃣ That is then turned into a legally ratifiable text
3️⃣ Both sides then ratify - on 🇪🇺 side Member States and the EP, 🇬🇧 side the Houses of Parliament
4️⃣ Deal in force 1.1.2021

2/25

The problem: we do not have 1️⃣ yet.

And with just over 16 days to go - including 🌲 - we do not have time for 2️⃣ and 3️⃣ and hence no 4️⃣.

We *might* have time for 2️⃣ - and that could prove to be significant (see tweet 7 below), but definitely not 3️⃣ on 🇪🇺 side.

3/25

*Essential* problem: by having spent so long talking (I think 🇬🇧 tactic has been to run down the clock -
https://t.co/8EJZAJZHqz ) the path to a normal ratification is now ⛔️.

Now ratification becomes harder - legally, politically, practically - with every passing hour.

4/25

The most obvious stumbling block is...

🥁🥁🥁

... the European Parliament!

Parliamentary sovereignty, eh? A topic for another time.

Anyway, the EP has said it will not vote on a Brexit Deal this

More from Health

No-regret #hydrogen:
Charting early steps for H₂ infrastructure in Europe.

👉Summary of conclusions of a new study by @AgoraEW @AFRY_global @Ma_Deutsch @gnievchenko (1/17)
https://t.co/YA50FA57Em


The idea behind this study is that future hydrogen demand is highly uncertain and we don’t want to spend tens of billions of euros to repurpose a network which won’t be needed. For instance, hydrogen in ground transport is a hotly debated topic
https://t.co/RlnqDYVzpr (2/17)

Similar things can be said about heat. 40% of today’s industrial natural gas use in the EU goes to heat below 100°C and therefore is within range of electric heat pumps – whose performance factors far exceed 100%. (3/17)


Even for higher temperatures, a range of power-to-heat (PtH) options can be more energy-efficient than hydrogen and should be considered first. Available PtH technologies can cover all temperature levels needed in industrial production (e.g. electric arc furnace: 3500°C). (4/17)


In our view, hydrogen use for feedstock and chemical reactions is the only inescapable source of industrial hydrogen demand in Europe that does not lend itself to electrification. Examples include ammonia, steel, and petrochemical industries. (5/17)
@73inlancs @janethooton_ @ErinInTheMorn @fifi_EY 1/ The 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 government decided pediatric gender care in England would be a monopoly contract (a Labour minister, in 2008), despite all other NHS patients officially being entitled to a choice of providers, & second opinions on diagnoses & treatment, & gave it to GIDS, which has…

@janethooton_ @ErinInTheMorn @fifi_EY 2/…always advocated that trans minors & their families must have no alternative source of care, & subsequent Tory ministers have personally put their signature on renewals of it, and even personally rejected proposals for improvement that have been put forward by NHS England…

@janethooton_ @ErinInTheMorn @fifi_EY 3/…as a result of wider & public consultation. They & their civil servants listen only to GIDS on trans minors - it was GIDS advised against <18s being allowed #GenderRecognition in 2004, & since, on the basis that no one under 18 can be certain of their gender identity, just…

@janethooton_ @ErinInTheMorn @fifi_EY 4/…as many other staff at their trust wrote⬇️ to the press in 2002 (when the first instigator of this case, psychoanalyst Susan Evans was on staff too) that no trans people should be allowed that recognition but needed

@janethooton_ @ErinInTheMorn @fifi_EY 5/…to "cure" us instead. Yet GIDS proved incapable of defending its super-conservative protocol in court - no doubt because GIDS has always expected challenges to be from patients seeking care more like that elsewhere, arrogantly ignoring that services in countries where the…

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