Authors Thomas Sampson
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A few thoughts on how Brexit is likely to affect the UK economy in 2021 - with the caveat that much remains uncertain 1/
Most important change on January 1st will be higher trade costs due to creation of UK-EU customs border plus restrictions on what services trade is allowed
Costs from regulatory divergence likely to be at least as important as border costs in the long run, but not immediately 2/
Expect disruption & delays at the border for the first few months
However, I do not anticipate shortages of essential goods, as imports can be expedited if needed, e.g. air freight, priority customs processing 3/
Delays will become shorter and more predictable as firms learn what paperwork is needed and customs capacity improves. Important for just-in-time supply chains where predictability is more important than speed 4/
Contrary to government claims, many costs will be permanent:
- Red tape, e.g. need for customs workers wastes resources & lowers productivity
wasting resources
- Tariffs (if no deal)
- Rules of origin (if deal)
- Lost market access for services
https://t.co/07wNehNn7z 5/
Most important change on January 1st will be higher trade costs due to creation of UK-EU customs border plus restrictions on what services trade is allowed
Costs from regulatory divergence likely to be at least as important as border costs in the long run, but not immediately 2/
Expect disruption & delays at the border for the first few months
However, I do not anticipate shortages of essential goods, as imports can be expedited if needed, e.g. air freight, priority customs processing 3/
Delays will become shorter and more predictable as firms learn what paperwork is needed and customs capacity improves. Important for just-in-time supply chains where predictability is more important than speed 4/
Contrary to government claims, many costs will be permanent:
- Red tape, e.g. need for customs workers wastes resources & lowers productivity
wasting resources
- Tariffs (if no deal)
- Rules of origin (if deal)
- Lost market access for services
https://t.co/07wNehNn7z 5/
Fwiw I get told that economics and process considerations (haulage, logistics, manufacturing etc) play limited role in #brexit inner circle decision-making. Belief it\u2019ll be messy but business will adjust. Q is more short term political embarrassment. 2/2
— Peter Foster (@pmdfoster) December 13, 2020