BC BREXIT
Saved by @Alex1Powell

A few thoughts on how Brexit is likely to affect the UK economy in 2021 - with the caveat that much remains uncertain 1/

 Most important change on January 1st will be higher trade costs due to creation of UK-EU customs border plus restrictions on what services trade is allowed

Costs from regulatory divergence likely to be at least as important as border costs in the long run, but not immediately 2/
Expect disruption & delays at the border for the first few months

However, I do not anticipate shortages of essential goods, as imports can be expedited if needed, e.g. air freight, priority customs processing 3/
Delays will become shorter and more predictable as firms learn what paperwork is needed and customs capacity improves. Important for just-in-time supply chains where predictability is more important than speed 4/
Contrary to government claims, many costs will be permanent:
- Red tape, e.g. need for customs workers wastes resources & lowers productivity
wasting resources
- Tariffs (if no deal)
- Rules of origin (if deal)
- Lost market access for services

https://t.co/07wNehNn7z 5/
Border costs will raise import prices & make it harder for UK firms to export to EU. UK-EU trade will grow less quickly

Consumer price rises likely to be moderate (low single digits?) but will gradually erode living standards similar to post-referendum https://t.co/l7Zyegk7MZ 6/
Tariffs are low or zero in most sectors, but some industries would be hit hard by no deal, e.g. cars, clothing, meat & dairy. Loses concentrated on small groups, can trigger political backlash & have high salience

https://t.co/d2r6M1GlvB 7/
Aggregate effects of Brexit will be swamped by Covid in 2021, as vaccine roll-out and end of social distancing lead to strong recovery. But Brexit will still exert a drag on economic growth that will become more apparent as
time passes. 8/
For casual observers, border disruption & possible impact of tariffs on car industry & agriculture likely to be most visible immediate economic impacts 9/
Monetary policy: Brexit mostly irrelevant due to overwhelming importance of Covid in determining path of policy.

And, as the Bank of England has noted, monetary policy cannot offset the impact of a permanent negative supply shock 10/
Fiscal policy: subsidies can be targeted to hardest hit. I favour compensating losers from trade policy, but remember that compensation merely redistributes the
costs to tax payers rather than solving underlying problem of higher trade costs 11/

https://t.co/2ZULlcIotu
Further reading

Excellent @UKandEU report on implications of new deal. @anandMenon1 @jdportes @jillongovt: https://t.co/OV0XXk5ypk

Interesting @JohnSpringford @tomashirstecon piece on interactions between Brexit & Covid:
https://t.co/pgasjQHwzw

More from Brexit

Dr Matt Prescott
Dr Matt Prescott
@mattprescott
WHAT'S MOST SUSPICIOUS ABOUT BREXIT? A tough competition... but here's my initial list... the two LEAVE CAMPAIGNS (see £££s from RUSSIAN DONORS + ISLE OF MAN), everything to do with VOTE LEAVE, everything to do with LEAVE EU, everything to do with CAMBRIDGE ANALYTICA / SCL...

... The way so many leading REMAINERS have since become LEAVERS or accepted PEERAGES (see the HOUSE OF LORDS, RUSSIA REPORT), the way David CAMERON quit, the way Nick CLEGG went from leading the LIB DEMS to working for FACEBOOK (WTF???), George OSBORNE working for Evgeny LEBEDEV.

... the lack of criticism of BREXIT on the BBC (see manipulation by omission, PROPAGANDA, DISINFORMATION and MISINFORMATION), the lack of EXPERTS on the BBC, the super-abundance of Nigel FARAGE on the BBC (see QUESTION TIME)...

... the daily PROPAGANDA from our TABLOID PRESS and traditionally BROADSHEET NEWSPAPER... the mainstreaming of DUMBING DOWN across all media and formats...

... setting up of short-lived but potentially important CROSS-PARTY COALITIONS...
BREXIT
Nick Marro
Nick Marro
@nickm4rro
1/ Lots of good analysis out there on why the EU-China CAI is a bad decision in the context of Xinjiang, transatlantic partnerships, etc. But I also think that even the trade/econ benefits of the CAI look quite limited. Thread:

2/ It highlights, as a win, that China’s preservation of existing liberalizations. That’s positive, but not really a big problem; the bigger issue is stagnation, where reform pledges have failed to materialize after years/decades of promises. Great example is in the FDI openings,


3/ which are highlighted to include cloud, auto, fin services etc—all areas of EU/MNC interest. Thing is, these openings aren’t new. China has begun opening auto/finance since 2018/19, while the 50% cap on cloud services has remained unchanged since 2015 (or before if we consider


4/ WTO ascension commitments vs the 2015 Telecom Catalogue, but that’s for another day). So these are existing openings that are repackaged as “wins.” More critical issue beyond FDI caps is around licensing issuance, which still big problem. Arguably some more significance in

5/ R&D and health? Not an expert, but the FDI conditions (eg hospitals only in certain cities) are limiting, while R&D could be complicated by data/info controls. It’s also unclear how existing tech transfer prohibitions exceed existing protections in the foreign investment law,
BREXIT
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@tiggerish_
I am in the market for positive, optimistic articles about Brexit - it may not be how I’m feeling but I’m sure I’ve missed things + want to avoid confirmation bias so I’m opening my mind, + this seemed like a good place to

Elliott argues that ‘the UK has deep, structural economic problems’ - true, but correlation is not causation: we look in vain for an argument that these problems are caused by EU membership and/or that membership is preventing them being tackled

The argument would be stronger if Elliott could show that other countries in the EU faced similar structural problems, but he doesn’t + I don’t think he could - the EU manages to incorporate a wide range of economic models, + regional inequalities vary hugely between EU countries

He does not attempt to acknowledge + explain the boom in inward investment in UK manufacturing in the last few decades, one of the few economic positives for ‘left behind areas’, though that may have been hard without referring to single market membership + European supply chains

‘Brexit means that those farmers who want their fruit harvested will now have to...pay higher wages or invest in new machinery.’ Maybe they will (but I’m not convinced) but this would have unintended consequences eg higher prices for healthy food
BREXIT
Alessio Patalano
Alessio Patalano
@alessionaval
Two excellent questions at the end of a very sensible thread summarising the post-Brexit UK FP debate. My own take at attempting to offer an answer - ahead of the IR is as follow:


1. The two versions have a converging point: a tilt to the Indo-pacific doesn’t preclude a role as a convening power on global issues;
2. On the contrary, it underwrites the credibility for leadership on global issues, by seeking to strike two points:

A. Engaging with a part of the world in which world order and global issues are central to security, prosperity, and - not least - values;
B. Propelling the UK towards a more diversified set of economic, political, and security ties;

3. The tilt towards the Indo-Pacific whilst structurally based on a realist perception of the world, it is also deeply multilateral. Central to it is the notion of a Britain that is a convening power.
4. It is as a result a notion that stands on the ability to renew diplomacy;

5. It puts in relation to this a premium on under-utilised formats such as FPDA, 5Eyes, and indeed the Commonwealth - especially South Pacific islands;
6. It equally puts a premium on exploring new bilateral and multilateral formats. On former, Japan, Australia. On latter, Quad;
BREXIT
Steve Hyndside
Steve Hyndside
@SteveHyndside
I’m feeling really sad today thinking about what we’ve lost over the last 5 years. But this is mixed with proud knowledge I, and many around me, did all we could to avert this disaster unfolding. This is a short thread to give a shout out to some of them 1/


First up is @GreenPartyMolly - I’ve already rung her today to say this and more. But she was both astute and persuasive in her tireless work before and after the referendum. I remain proud to have worked for her and supported her.

Second up is @ewgjones - one of the few who threw himself into election mode before the referendum and saw the pragmatic need for a persuasive targeted GreenerIn campaign. Without him @SW_GreenerIN probably wouldn’t have happened (or certainly looked very different)

Third up is my former colleague @aw_bell who pivoted quicker than anyone I knew through the grief of 2016 to try & make the best of the awful situation post referendum. He metaphorically shook me awake when I kinda wanted to hide under a duvet (and I think he did this for many)

Fourth up is Joe Williams - friend who helped set up @Bristol4Europe (who really led the national response post referendum). He was a calculated head in a room who dared to think big when others were panicking.
BREXIT

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Shri Krishna Leela

This is a beautiful story of Guruvayurappan. Once there lived in Guruvayur a poor family. Kitta, his wife & kids were struggling for their daily needs. With only a coconut tree in house, he earned a living by selling coconuts.


Kitta was from a low caste family. He was a great devotee of Guruvayurappan. Everyday before going to work he always prayed infront of a picture of Guruvayurappan in his house. His only wish was to worship at Guruvayur & have annadanam in temple. But he was not allowed there


It was Utsavam time in Guruvayur. From far behind kitta and family worshipped Guruvayurappan. Annadanam was given daily and no one was left empty stomach. Only Kitta didn't receive. That night, it was only Kitta's family who was sleeping without food. After temple nada closed


Shri Krishna, dressed himself as a Brahmin went to temple Kitchen. He packed food and went directly to kitta's house. Reaching Kitta's house, Shri Krishna told he was sent by a cook of Guruvayur temple and gave them the food he packed. Kitta and family was very happy seeing food.


When Kitta finished his food, Brahmin asked it will be better if he get a tender coconut( karikku)to drink. Kitta climbed the tree and gave all coconuts to him. After having 1 tender coconut, the Brahmin asked to bring remaining coconuts to Guruvayur temple the next day.
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Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
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SRI KALAHASTI KSHETRAM, CHITTOOR (AP)
#bharatmandir

Panchbhootasthalam representing vayu element, also called Dakshin Kailasha.
As per Shiva’s boon, Vayu is incarnated here as Shiva and worshipped as Kalahasteeswara.
The kshetram is also associated with Rahu and Ketu.


The Kshetram is named after 3 devotees of Shiva- a snake, spider and elephant who worshipped a lingam in the forest. Elephant did jal abhishek with water from its trunk, spider protected it from dust by weaving a web on it and snake adorned it with his jewel.
@GunduHuDuGa


Once, the web and jewel got washed away when elephant sprayed water on the lingam. Angered snake entered elephant’s trunk and bit him but died in the process. The agitated elephant trampled the spider accidentally. Shiva gave moksha to all three.


Hence the name-Sri for Spider, kaal for snake n hasti for elephant.

Shiv bhakt Kanappa is said to have plucked his own eye to put it on the lingam here when he saw blood oozing from the eye on the lingam
This place is the ultimate location for Rahu Kethu Sarpa Dosha Nivarana.
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Tweeting Historians
Tweeting Historians
@Tweetistorian
@ChenHuailun here. I'm adding a supplementary thread before today's scheduled one to expand on the origins and early history of the Church of the East (aka the Nestorian Church) ~ahc #jingjiao 1/


The Church of the East traces its origins to the christological position of the School of Antioch, which held that the human and divine and human essences (ουσία) of Christ were united in a single prosopon (πρόσωπον). ~ahc #jingjiao 2/


This ran against the position of the School of Alexandria, which held that the two essences of Christ were united in a single hypostasis (ὑπόστασις). In general terms, hypostasis is more inherent than prosopon. ~ahc #jingjiao 3/


One implication of the Antiochene rejection of the hypostatic union is that Mary could not accurately be called the Theotokos, or God-bearer. Instead, she is the Christotokos, the Christ-bearer. ~ahc #jingjiao 4/


These Christological debates were further complicated by Syriac terms such as 'kyana' (ܟܝܢܐ), associated with 'ousia' but later translated to 'hypostasis' by Syrian Orthodox; and 'qnoma ' (ܩܢܘܡܐ), sometimes contentiously translated as 'hypostasis' or 'person.' ~ahc #jingjiao 5/
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Stephen Bush
Stephen Bush
@stephenkb
Some quick thoughts on Sam Gyimah's resignation after conversations with various Conservative MPs: 1) the chances of a second referendum are a lot higher than I thought:

2) At this point, if you are a young and ambitious Tory MP it is now so overwhelmingly in your interest to vote against the withdrawal agreement. V v hard to see how Julian Smith can cap rebellion at under 100:

3) Really just to reiterate 1) Gyimah is the kind of "No, never gonna rebel" vaguely pro-EU Tory you'd need to get on side to outweigh Labour Leavers and Real Concerners.
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