BC BREXIT
Saved by @Alex1Powell

This is pure revisionism, untrue and a dangerous, divisive reinvention of recent history that will stop our country from recovering. I was intimately involved in these events and will try to explain....

 Let’s put aside for a moment the rights and wrongs of a ‘soft’ Brexit. (Wrong mainly because no one voted for it in the 2016 referendum; it literally wasn’t on the ballot paper.)
There was a fleeting opportunity for a soft Brexit in 2016 *if* the-then PM had chosen to make delivering Brexit a cross-party endeavour. This is what she should have done on an issue of such strategic national importance, and I told her so at the time.
There was a second missed opportunity after the 2017 General Election delivered a hung Parliament. That is as strong a signal as you get in our democracy that it’s time for a cross-party approach. Theresa May chose to buy a confidence-and-supply agreement with the DUP instead.
By mid-2018, the political reality was that Parliament’s choice was between a confirmatory referendum or a Hard (‘No Deal’) Brexit because enough of the Conservative party wanted a ‘clean’ Brexit and the rest either couldn’t agree on an alternative or didn’t care either way.
That is why I resigned as a minister in June 2018. I couldn’t be part of a Government that was blind to the inevitable outcomes of its Brexit policy: Britain leaving the EU with a minimal deal and a change in the country’s direction towards a more nationalist and populist agenda.
A few Tories saw this - Bebb, @Anna_Soubry, Grieve, me - and helped form a tight cross-party group of MPs to find a solution. The so-called “Trains and Buses” group had more impact at Westminster in 2018-19 than anyone realised. By Sept 2018, the group had a deliverable plan.
We had to respect the country’s choice in 2016 & find a democratic way to avert the worst outcomes. In practice, this meant a confirmatory referendum (so people could give their informed consent) on a workable plan for soft Brexit that had Parliament’s support (likely May’s deal)
We also had to persuade colleagues of all parties to act in the national - not self - interest. We knew that the great majority of Labour MPs would vote for a referendum & against any hard Brexit. ‘Remain’ Tory MPs held the key - fear of their Tory associations was the main issue
In mid-2019 a few ‘senior’ Conservatives finally decided to try and see off a Hard Brexit by pushing for a soft one. But the self-styled “rebel alliance” had failed to grasp that any version of soft Brexit was then politically undeliverable. At best, they delayed the inevitable.
(Another quick aside: there were *no* leaks from the Trains and Buses group until the “rebel alliance” joined us. Their posturing was at times self-serving, unhelpful and broke the wider group’s trust. The lack of previous leaks is why the T & B group remains relatively unknown)
Tory leadership bids in June 2019 perpetuated the myth that the Tories could deliver a ‘soft’ Brexit in Govt. And predictably failed: the hard-Brexit European Research Group was controlling events and would never have supported a soft Brexit. Johnson was always going to win.
The ‘Benn Group’, which formed in summer 2019, successfully delivered an Act that stopped the Government from forcing through a No Deal Brexit. What it failed to do, mainly because of the early General Election, was agree a solution. In time, that would have been a referendum.
In short, we’re where we are because 1) ‘Remainer’ Tory MPs (May, Tugendhat, Greene etc) and former MPs (Stewart, Rudd, Hammond etc) did not grasp the fact that the only politically deliverable Parliamentary outcomes in late 2018 were a confirmatory referendum or a hard Brexit. https://t.co/5hubeyrPUn
(Also: The People’s Vote realised too late that persuading Tory MPs was critical. Some of us started The Right To Vote campaign in early 2019 to help. We needed a Cabinet Minister to resign and three were receptive. Didn’t happen though.)
2) Jeremy Corbyn’s team were happy to create political chaos because, in their minds, from such chaos would come their revolution. Most Labour MPs knew this and realised there was no agreed soft Brexit compromise. Hence the growth in support for a confirmatory referendum in 2018
3) Jo Swinson’s baffling decision to go for a GE in late 2019. This was heavily based on flawed polling analysis not political reality. We were slowly winning the Brexit parliamentary race, then one of our own side spiked it. Hubris won through.
We came very close, though. Those of us (from all parties) who recognised the political dynamics and realities early found a democratic solution the country could live with and were just nine votes short of the Parliamentary majority needed to deliver it.
(Our whipping operation, impressively run by just two MPs (one Tory, one Labour), was on the mark through the entire saga, much more so than the Govt whips office.)
For some to try to rewrite events so as to absolve themselves is wrong. Predictable but still wrong. Plenty of people behaved badly. But ultimately, this is about systems failure. Our political system spectacularly failed our country.
Over my decades in politics, I have seen first-hand too much hubris, self-serving decision-making & appalling behaviour at Westminster; too little integrity & effort to get to grips with complex issues. The result of these personal failings is the #Brexit we’ll get on 1 Jan 2021.
We need more people in politics and public life who are better-motivated. People who, when push comes to shove, can be relied on to act with honesty, care and diligence. And the electorate needs to support them.
Not everyone comes out of this badly. Brexit was always in the SNP’s self-interest but they supported our collective effort with honesty, energy & integrity. A number of Labour MPs distinguished themselves. The ERG’s determination, consistency & hard work is also to be respected.
The rest of the Tories are a case study in the depths to which political & public life has sunk. At best, they were intellectually & morally weak. At worst, they actively lied (to the nation & themselves), putting personal interest & the pursuit of power above the public interest
The sooner we recognise this, the sooner we can start to correct the flaws and heal as a country. When future political historians write about our times, they will conclude that our politics failed our nation - indeed our four nations. Let’s accept this and do better.

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George Riddell
George Riddell
@GeorgeMRiddell
Been a lot of discussion recently around services trade in the deal between the UK and EU. Having read through the agreement over the past couple of days, my impressions👇

First off, services is definitely included. Question for service providers, is will it be enough?

1/N

My overall impression is that the EU has offered among the best in class for its FTAs similar to Canada and Japan.

But this access is a far cry from access to the Single Market and how is constructed as part of a trade agreement for the EU reflects that.

2/n


Unlike for goods trade, once you've got a product through all the customs and regulatory procedures into the EU, it can be sold anywhere in the EU, or its "entered circulation".

For services trade, that isn't the case. Its still done on a member state by member state level.

3/n

This is even true in the trade agreement itself where although the provisions set out in the Services and Investment chapter sounds awfully good - lots of principles about the freedom to establish and allowing the cross-border trade in services.

It's only when...

4/n

You get to the annexes and you realise both the EU and individual member states have put entry conditions across huge areas of different services sectors both now (existing measures) & in the future. Don't worry too much about the future reservations, it's the existing ones.

5/n
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Helene von Bismarck
Helene von Bismarck
@HeleneBismarck
While we await white smoke signalling a #Brexit deal, let us consider what the end of the transition period on 31 Dec (deal or no deal) will mean for the future of UK politics. Will the end of the Brexit process lead to the end of British #populism? I am very sceptical.
Thread 1/

This thread serves as an English summary and translation of a long essay I published in the Swiss @RepublikMagazin last week. Contrary to its title, it is not just about @BorisJohnson

British populism is a political method, not an ideology. It is not identical with Trumpism, even if it shares some of its traits. The populist method in the UK does not become redundant with #Brexit, because its use hasn't been limited to the UK's relationship with the EU.
3/

The populist method in the UK consists of two key elements:
1) the emotionalization and over-simplification of highly complex issues (such as Brexit, the pandemic, migration, culture or history)
2) the reliance on bogeymen ('enemies') both abroad and at home

4/

Populists depend on enemies, real or imagined, to legitimize their actions and deflect from their own shortcomings. There has been an obvious candidate for the enemy abroad since 2016: the EU. But once transition is over, this may, in the long term, become more difficult.
5/
BREXIT
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Chris Randone
Chris Randone
@ChrisRandone
Many bearish sentiments across the mortgage sector because they believe companies won't succeed as much when rate finally go back up (3 maybe 4 years from now). Which makes sense except for $GHIV and here's why. In 2016 Brexit came & rates went down which lead to huge success...

in mortgages. Business was great for many companies but then in ‘17 and ‘18, rates went up. What happened you might ask? A lot of people got compressed, margins got compressed, rates went down, & people struggled in the mortgage market...

Well UWM ( $GHIV ) compound annual growth rate, from ‘16 to ’18, was 28%. Companies that focused on refi struggled, so obviously a very successful company like Rocket or Quicken, they went down 14% in compound annual growth rate in those years...

$GHIV actually grew, and so did their profits, so the opportunity to continue to grow in all cycles is a big differentiator for UWM, and the broker channel versus a lot of our competitors. When rates rise, it's actually even better for $GHIV (UWM)..

If rates stay low, great UWM will continue to crush but when the rates rise, they will continue to steal even more market share because of how they operate in the mortgage sector. People also talk about the speed in closing a loan & that other competitors are faster...
BREXIT
Michael M. \U0001f1e8\U0001f1ed\U0001f1f3\U0001f1f4\U0001f1ee\U0001f1f8\U0001f1f1\U0001f1ee\U0001f1ec\U0001f1e7
Michael M. 🇨🇭🇳🇴🇮🇸🇱🇮🇬🇧...
@vivamjm
Brexit also brings UK pork sector to standstill. Surprise eh? @RichardAENorth 🙄
UK pork processors are experiencing significant issues in exporting products to the EU, which has already brought part of the industry to a complete standstill, risking knock-on impacts on farm.


The widely seen footage of overzealous Dutch (*my edit: "no they were not"*) inspection officials confiscating ham sandwiches transported by British hauliers is just the tip of the iceberg as far as the UK pig sector is concerned.
The NPA’s processor members have reported that

excessive (*my edit: only for non-EU members*) bureaucracy associated with paperwork requirements are causing delays at Dover, Calais and other ports. With pork being a perishable product, these delays are making UK shipments unattractive to buyers in the EU, forcing processors

to reject shipments and cancel future orders.
Despite the trade deal agreed between the EU & UK just before Christmas, the UK’s formal departure from the EU Customs Union and Single Market was always going to mean additional checks, new labelling and certification requirements

and delays at ports. While the full overall impact of the new rules is yet to be felt, as UK export volumes remain lower than normal for the time of year, the UK pig sector is already feeling the effect. Processors have reported a number of issues, including:
BREXIT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Today's UK-EU trade deal reflection - what is rarely stated in discussions about the deal's shortcomings is that they reflect UK government policy choices - in particular that control of immigration and a US trade deal are a higher priority than an EU deal.

Thus, why was it not a UK government priority to secure for UK musicians the rights to tour the EU? Because that would probably have required a reciprocal right to be given to those in the EU, which we didn't want to give. Choice.

Meanwhile why did the UK government not seek or secure a reduction in food inspections for GB products going to the EU? Because that would probably have required fixing food regulations in a way that might have been an obstacle to a US trade deal.

Works the other way as well. Why did the EU refuse UK requests on mutual recognition of industrial testing? In part at least because of UK lack of commitment on maintaining the previous EU system of standards and conformity assessment which might be a problem in a US deal.

One of the strangest opinions in the London politics bubble is that the UK government isn't that bothered about a US trade deal, as it so obviously goes against the evidence. There might be domestic opposition, but this was to be Brexit Dividend Number 1.
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