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This year, for the first time, I started sharing my thoughts on various topics in Investing/Economics/Law.
Here’s a ‘Master Thread’ of my main write-ups this year.👇
First, a special thanks to all the brilliant people I’ve met & learned from on Twitter. To name a few:
@profplum99 @hkuppy @Convertbond @contrarian8888 @jam_croissant @pineconemacro @verdadcap @WayneHimelsein @LT3000Lyall @HFI_Research @SahilBloom @coloradotravis @SantiagoAuFund
Why Inflation Will Kill the Ponzi Sector and Catalyze the Growth/Value Rotation,
9/19/2020
Why Fund Flows and the Shift to Fiscal Stimulus Will Drive the Rotation,
10/8/2020
Inflation, Rising Yields, and Risk Parity: The Biggest Danger in Finance,
10/10/2020
Here’s a ‘Master Thread’ of my main write-ups this year.👇
First, a special thanks to all the brilliant people I’ve met & learned from on Twitter. To name a few:
@profplum99 @hkuppy @Convertbond @contrarian8888 @jam_croissant @pineconemacro @verdadcap @WayneHimelsein @LT3000Lyall @HFI_Research @SahilBloom @coloradotravis @SantiagoAuFund
Why Inflation Will Kill the Ponzi Sector and Catalyze the Growth/Value Rotation,
9/19/2020
Why Inflation Will Kill the Ponzi Sector (and Catalyze the Long-Awaited Sector Rotation from Growth to Value)...
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) September 19, 2020
A thread.
This topic was a black box to me a few weeks ago. I will try to crystallize what (I think) I now understand.
Why Fund Flows and the Shift to Fiscal Stimulus Will Drive the Rotation,
10/8/2020
1- For the record, I\u2019m most convinced that the 2 primary drivers of this sector rotation will be i) fund flows and ii) the shift to fiscal stimulus. https://t.co/TQ2mUwHJhg
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) October 8, 2020
Inflation, Rising Yields, and Risk Parity: The Biggest Danger in Finance,
10/10/2020
Why the Biggest Risk in Finance is Inflation (and a rising 10Y Treasury Yield).
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) October 10, 2020
A thread.
Hint: it has to do with the ubiquitous Risk Parity framework.
1/ Today has brought a lot of news about 'variants', as we discover community transmission of B.1.351 (SA variant) in the UK.
But some of the people who study these genomes have increasingly started focusing on a different concept: 'constellations', which may be more useful.
2/ We're actually all using 'variant' wrong anyway – we're using it to refer to a 'lineage'. A lineage is a set of viruses descended from a common ancestor. All B.1.1.7 (UK variant) viruses descend from an infection that probably occurred in August or September.
3/ But what makes this lineage practically important is that it carries a set of mutations which make it more transmissible.
I.e. we don't really care about the ancestry in itself.
4/ For example, one of the mutations that we think is important to B.1.1.7's faster transmission is called N501Y.
5/ It turns out that a lot of the lineages identified as important recently, in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK, have mutations such as N501Y in common (figure adapted from https://t.co/lpJeW0GGnU)
But some of the people who study these genomes have increasingly started focusing on a different concept: 'constellations', which may be more useful.
2/ We're actually all using 'variant' wrong anyway – we're using it to refer to a 'lineage'. A lineage is a set of viruses descended from a common ancestor. All B.1.1.7 (UK variant) viruses descend from an infection that probably occurred in August or September.
3/ But what makes this lineage practically important is that it carries a set of mutations which make it more transmissible.
I.e. we don't really care about the ancestry in itself.
4/ For example, one of the mutations that we think is important to B.1.1.7's faster transmission is called N501Y.
5/ It turns out that a lot of the lineages identified as important recently, in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK, have mutations such as N501Y in common (figure adapted from https://t.co/lpJeW0GGnU)