One simple thing we pointed out in the what to expect when you're electing report for EIP was really embracing experts talking about "how such things usually turn out". I don't think people understand the difference this makes. https://t.co/mWUVCR4Pbz

We value experts b/c they are careful when commenting on things they don't have the full picture on. And that's good. But one thing I've found in my deep dive into the electoral disinformation flows is that expertise arrives *days* after all the disinfoverse explanations go viral

So the expertise that should be making us smarter socially doesn't really help. As I looked through reporting and thought about my own experience being interviewed it occurred to me that so often we're asked "What is this thing likely to be?" and that makes us skittish.

The true answer to "What is this thing likely to be?" is a mess of really dubious percentages requiring lots of inputs. And the uncertainty we express just makes it look like truth might be unknowable. People are bad at comprehending likelihoods.

On the other hand, ask an expert "How have similar things in the past turned out? and you'll not only get a more helpful answer, you'll get a STORY -- a narrative that can actually compete with other narratives.

Everyone should be a lifelong learner.

We stagnate when we're okay with the status quo. But by spotting areas for improvement, we can thrive and live a life worth living.

🧵 My top five reasons to keep learning.

Learning doesn't stop when you leave school.

If you want to thrive in life, you should always be learning. Once you embrace learning as a part of your life, the world will become a playground full of possibilities.

Five reasons everyone should be a lifelong learner:

Reason 1: Learning is fun

Learning allows adults to be playful like kids. Following our curiosity and learning something new, we get little hits of dopamine — the neurotransmitter associated with rewards.

Learning is natural, but it gets shrouded in seriousness the older we get.

Make learning fun to keep it sustainable.

Reason 2: Learning creates possibilities

Most modern jobs rely on specialized knowledge, but that knowledge is changing fast. Companies look for people who can learn new skills quickly.

If you can proof you can learn something, you'll have a job.

🙏 Are you a sheep or Judas goats. “All the nations will be gathered before Him; and He will separate them from one another, just as the shepherd separates the sheep from the goats;& He will put the sheep on His right, but the goats on the left.”
Matthew 25:32-33 🇺🇸 sheep;🇨🇳 goat

There have been a bunch of questions about the review over the weekend. Here’s my best go at answering ones that have been asked by a few people..

1) Is this a review of ‘care’ or of the whole of children’s social care? It’s the whole thing and that’s why it’s exciting. The system of CSC is so interconnected that to look at one part (say, residential children’s homes) alone would limit the opportunity for big change

2) Why are you creating an Experts by Experience Group? It shouldn’t be down to me alone to decide how the review hears from the thousands of people who need this system to work. I need help deciding this and the EbE is *one* structured way of doing this

3) Why do people need to apply to join this group? With so many people who could be on this group (lots have already generously offered to help) there needs to be a fair way of deciding. The application process has been made as simple as possible.

3 continued) … I understand why some may not want to apply - there will be lots of ways to contribute to the review in a big way once we’re up and running.

A thread about panic buying and stockpiling outrage. Availability (or lack thereof) of products in supermarkets is a complex and multi-layered issue.

Basically, it's not just people being cunts. 1/

CHANGING BEHAVIOUR. Many people acquire food from non-supermarket sources. Cafes, work canteens, restaurants, delis, service stations etc. 2/

When this decreases significantly, it takes a relatively small proportion of people in an area to buy one extra meal at the supermarket, to affect supply. 3/

BIGGER BASKETS. There are a LOT of people who shop 'little and often', buying only what they need for that day/possibly the next. The govt is now asking people to limit their trips, meaning products which would take a week to leave shelves will now be bought on a single trip. 4/

Again, it only takes a small proportion of people making this change to affect supply.

SPACE ON SHELF. It sounds obvious, but some products take up more space on shelf. Compare a tin of soup with an 18 pack of toilet roll. 5/

Dogg Comms Thread

Finally starting a thread after noticing all the strange Dog Comms

1)

Here is a reminder of some of the failings in the past 12 months that have led to so many infections & deaths-

1.The PM missed 5 cobra meetings at start
2. The Government ignored warnings about pandemic preparations
3. They allowed ppe stockpiles to run down (1/10)

4. Delayed lockdown number one
5. Delayed lockdown number two
6.Delayed lockdown number three
7. Ignored Sage advice on a circuit break lockdown for 6 weeks
8.Allowed people to enter the UK without checks
9.Stopped contract tracing in March (2/10)

10. Discharged people into care homes without testing
11.Allowed ppe to be exported
12. Ignored WHO advice to “test test test”
13. Couldn’t track how many people were being tested each day
14.Didn’t require private testing companies to report results to local councils (3/10)

15. Created an app that notification to self isolate from didn’t count for claiming a self isolation payment
16. Recommended face coverings in May but didn’t make it compulsory until July
17.Didn’t join cross Eu ppe procurement (4/10)

18. Handed contact tracing to private companies with no record
19. Handed ppe contracts to companies with no record
20.Failed to support people to self isolate
21.Brought in scheme of support for self isolation that only 1 in 8 people qualify for (5/10)

What are old-school transsexuals?

They are the ones who made it into the media, or the front of a tabloid, the ones who had the juicy details of surgery that made people wince or cross their legs while reading it.... clickbait, before there was anything to click.

1/

What you hear about old-school transsexuals or 'OST's' is largely the witterings of cishet transphobes who have constructed a MYTH.
2/

If you listen to accounts from transsexuals in the decades gone by when trans care wasnt available for 99.9% of trans people, what is a recurring theme is that they made incredible sacrifices to forge a life for themselves with no other option but assimilation.

3/

What often goes hand in hand with these stories, is prostitution, sex work, risking their own life for basic healthcare and treatment, many never got that far, many were MURDERED, and swept under the metaphorical carpet.

4/

Thats before they even got to surgery, which was equally dangerous and precarious unless you somehow managed to raise enough money to go to one of the very places in the world where the operations were performed with competence and care.
5/

Cardano and Elrond communites have always been on friendly terms and there is plenty of space for both to coexist.

I want to address some inaccuracies in @matiwinnetou's recent post.

👇Read the thread👇

1. The governance model on Elrond will be launched during 2021 Q2, and the ethos and spirit is the same as Cardano. To give governance power to the token holders.

2. Three years of development and plenty of external audits such as Trial of bits, hackers invited to break the network during BoN and 1400 validators strees testing for an extended period of time ensures that the network is secure.

3. Many Blockchains are only one company. Elrond Foundation is currently bootstrapping the Network, but will gradually hand over governance to the holders thus enabling decentralization

4. On-Chain upgrades have already been successfully performed both on the mainnet and on the public testnet. Elrond's hardfork detection mechanism has been thoroughly tested in Battle of Nodes under severe adversarial conditions.

Okay folks, you all have been very kind over the last few days. I promise this account hasn't been highjacked. There's a lot going on & evangelical proximity to it is maddening.

But I promised you a thread about cancel culture, socioeconomics, & vocation.

First, let me say that I believe peer pressure & shunning happens in every social group. I believe the group can rally against the individual to force them comply w/ established norms & established powers. It is feature of human community.

So I don't disbelieve that something akin to "cancel culture" exists. But living in & ministering in working class spaces, I've never understood the emotion attached to popular iteration.

Sure, we talk about political correctness & the pressure to not say things, but the cancel culture narrative always felt imported somehow. Like, it wasn't organic to the way we moved thru the world.

So it's always puzzled me. The emotion that is. The fear. The panic of the woke mob coming for your job. Why is it framed this way? None of this made sense to me until I started mixing more w/ mid-upper class conservatives, particularly Xians.

Who wants to go on an adveventure ???

Ontario based company owns shares in a Chinese company 🇨🇳

China amc owned by CITIC Securities

CITIC security ones by CITIC Group

CITIC Group is communist State corporation/ CEO chang Zhenming important to remember ☝️☝️💰💰

I've also noticed that it's often that cheating is what women do when they don't want a divorce but, for a ridiculous number of reasons (most of which are probably ad hoc rationals) are upset.

>Why did you cheat?
>"I don't want to feel equal I want to feel special and I want dick."

>Don't you have a dick?
>"Oh he's so wonderful, so sweet, so kind. He is the greatest man in the world...but, I'm bored."

Welcome to the void.

And so the older study that concluded that "Women cheat because they love their husbands" is only getting more "correct".

This is not a world I was made for.

Ten years.
That's it.

Next up is @ElseyVicki talking about "Faking it, creating it and making it: the pillars of professional identification in Occupational Psychology". #DOPconf

What are the five pillars and why do they matter for employability? Ensuring MSc graduates have somewhere to go. #DOPconf

Vicki looked at career stories and how graduates forged their identity into the profession. Identification precursor to identity, but is more outward-facing. This research interviewed 20 MSc graduates, aged 22-63, about their career. #DOPconf

These interviews led to five pillar model. First pillar is Education and Learning, with continual life-long learning contributing to identity-forming. #DOPconf

Second pillar is Networking and Building Relationships. Who is in your network and how do you support each other? Those connected to #weareoccpsychs found identity-building stronger, with networking being very important. #DOPconf

(THREAD) Quarantine Act - we should all know what we are dealing with

1/ The devil is in the details. The first couple of sentences raise a red flag.

A communicable disease need to pose "a risk of significant harm to public health"

How is significant defined? Do the covid deaths meet that bar?

2/ While looking for a definition of significant harm to public health I found this gem!

2007 Jun 19:

"When I trained in public health, some 25 years ago, quarantine had fallen into disrepute because of the widespread perception that it did not work"

3/ "Mass quarantine gained further currency when it was adopted as a control strategy against severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003. Now, quarantine is re-entrenched in the mainstream of public health theory such that it is being proposed as a measure to fight pandemic

4/ "The Control of Communicable Disease Manual4 provides an authoritative summary of control measures for more than 150 infectious diseases of public health concern."

I have worked all day on the Holiday Inn Cluster timeline

The first case was reported late on Feb 7
This was the Authorised Officer who tested negative after a shift on Feb 4, returned to work on the 7th, developed symptoms and tested positive

A cohort of her colleagues were then required to test and quarantine

The next case to emerge was a guest at the hotel who left HQ on Dec 7 after completing their 14 days

They were tested as a result of the AO testing positive

That result came back on the 9th

On the 9th it was also determined that the viral genome sequence for the AO case was identical to a family of 3 who had been at the Holiday Inn

All had B.1.1.7 VOC

That family was transferred to a hot hotel on Feb 4

Feb 3 and 4 are now believed to be the exposure dates relevant to the beginning of the cluster

The father in the family of 3 was admitted to ICU on the 9th

As of Feb 14 there are 16 cases linked back to the Holiday Inn but there is a sub cluster linked to a Private Dining event in Coburg on Feb 6 for 5 of those cases

The intersection point is a hotel quarantine worker and it is a little confusing as the TLs overlap

There are so many things as a GP that we cannot access day to day since the NHS focused on Covid in March. The list is endless, my patients have suffered... These are not real patients, but real scenarios I have faced since March. Imagine....

✨✨Dear Patriots✨✨

I love you all. ♥️ So it pains me deeply to tell you, I must be going. Someone must do this, for all of Humanity. I took the job before I knew what it truly meant. But accepted it once I knew what it meant.