@profplum99 @hkuppy @Convertbond @contrarian8888 @jam_croissant @pineconemacro @verdadcap @WayneHimelsein @LT3000Lyall @HFI_Research @SahilBloom @coloradotravis @SantiagoAuFund
This year, for the first time, I started sharing my thoughts on various topics in Investing/Economics/Law.
Here’s a ‘Master Thread’ of my main write-ups this year.👇
@profplum99 @hkuppy @Convertbond @contrarian8888 @jam_croissant @pineconemacro @verdadcap @WayneHimelsein @LT3000Lyall @HFI_Research @SahilBloom @coloradotravis @SantiagoAuFund
9/19/2020 https://t.co/1RTLabcJh1
Why Inflation Will Kill the Ponzi Sector (and Catalyze the Long-Awaited Sector Rotation from Growth to Value)...
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) September 19, 2020
A thread.
This topic was a black box to me a few weeks ago. I will try to crystallize what (I think) I now understand.
10/8/2020 https://t.co/LQuw7f3mqY
1- For the record, I\u2019m most convinced that the 2 primary drivers of this sector rotation will be i) fund flows and ii) the shift to fiscal stimulus. https://t.co/TQ2mUwHJhg
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) October 8, 2020
10/10/2020 https://t.co/TmrFKWd2VW
Why the Biggest Risk in Finance is Inflation (and a rising 10Y Treasury Yield).
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) October 10, 2020
A thread.
Hint: it has to do with the ubiquitous Risk Parity framework.
10/10/2020 https://t.co/sYYqVkAMsT
I\u2019m getting this question a lot. Where will inflation come from? What will cause it to rise?
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) October 11, 2020
I know the opinions on inflation are many and varied, but here\u2019s my take.
A thread. https://t.co/0Y5yaqiBH9
10/12/2020 https://t.co/xH6bTTbxgv
1- Great chart. Deflationary downdrafts will not be extinguished, but throughout history, inflation is quite consistent.
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) October 12, 2020
Note also that each low on the chart is higher than the previous, and so is each high. https://t.co/lmzCtWIcBS pic.twitter.com/3fmiEstDXV
10/14/2020 https://t.co/es50d3kTy9
Why We\u2019re on the Precipice of Another Bitcoin Mania...
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) October 14, 2020
A thread.
Note: it has nothing to do with Bitcoin replacing fiat money anytime soon.
10/22/2020 https://t.co/NY60UVpa7P
Time for a thread about US NatGas and why it will surprise to the upside...
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) October 22, 2020
There\u2019s an exceptional opportunity setting up in the energy space, in particular for US NatGas and related equities.
I\u2019ll explain the setup in this thread and also reveal my top pick. \U0001f920
10/24/2020 https://t.co/GFS0NwzCCT
The progression of price inflation can be explained in 3 stages:
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) October 24, 2020
Stage 1: Low Inflation. Low inflation is when prices increase just a little. People don\u2019t much notice. Life goes on. https://t.co/G0G1covcsa
10/30/2020 https://t.co/tKQROIB4CT
This week was... interesting. The election turbulence that some were predicting finally materialized.
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) October 30, 2020
The most notable day of the week, IMO, was Wednesday: stocks sold off by more than 3.5%, while Treasuries offered no protection.
Risk Parity continues to teeter.
A thread.
11/1/2020 https://t.co/xr1Z826pP8
I finally gave this episode a listen. Great and provocative interview as always from @ErikSTownsend.
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) November 1, 2020
Below I\u2019ll share some general comments on MMT along with some thoughts that came to mind while listening to Erik\u2019s conversation with @StephanieKelton.
A thread. https://t.co/ORvjCZJyd8
11/09/2020 https://t.co/4XgQjlLeQt
Mega blowout in $QQQ / $IWN spread this morning.
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) November 9, 2020
Energy complex on fire too. \U0001f525
Tech at incredibly stretched levels, with increasingly negative beta to C19.
Markets teaching us a lesson about fast & violent sector rotations. 1100bps this morning... Keep pushing till it snaps. pic.twitter.com/UHpFEJuZHu
11/10/2020 https://t.co/OON5foFBXd
Fantastic thread. Brief summary:
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) November 10, 2020
-Mkt cap of lower real rate beneficiaries (tech, bonds, etc.) is ~$24T, comprising largest share of $SPX + $RTY mkt cap (69%) in history.
-Equities are positioned for deflation/lower real rates, when higher rates are more likely over next 12mos. https://t.co/yga7ifdUnw
11/13/2020 https://t.co/3wJgEsGt0Z
What a week.
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) November 13, 2020
Tech (QQQ) -1.32%
Small Value (IWN) +8.82%
Energy (XLE) +17.04%
Who\u2019s having fun? pic.twitter.com/tyubwjZmuG
11/16/2020 https://t.co/PU4V0u9Qox
What\u2019s up with bond yields?
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) November 16, 2020
The consensus scenario appears to be that yields stay pegged at zero forever and beyond. I just don\u2019t buy it.
Let\u2019s imagine why long term rates would rise (Part 1), and what would happen if they did, even if just a little (Part 2).
A thread. https://t.co/DfsG81HWbb
11/20/2020 https://t.co/HZdHgU3qae
The Next Bitcoin Mania is Here...
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) November 20, 2020
The main thesis (explained in the thread below) has been that rising institutional demand coupled with an already-tiny float will catapult Bitcoin higher in the short to medium term.
Brief update.\U0001f447 https://t.co/es50d3kTy9
11/20/2020 https://t.co/eDhM1NzeZl
1- $GBTC makes it a lot easier for institutions and retirement accounts to own Bitcoin. So in a sense, it does increase demand, by increasing accessibility.
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) November 20, 2020
Institutions that otherwise would not have been able to buy are now buying thanks to $GBTC (and other similar products). https://t.co/hekHzEVmEN
11/29/2020 https://t.co/gEg6cxZtRR
Why the Growth/Value Rotation is Likely Still in its Early Innings...
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) November 30, 2020
A thread.
Lots of talk about whether this \u201cvalue pop\u201d in Nov will prove to be short-lived or whether it has legs. https://t.co/1RTLabcJh1
12/10/2020 https://t.co/21tvf0JjJc
Brief note on the Growth/Value Rotation.
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) December 10, 2020
I have been using the $QQQ / $IWN ratio to proxy the Large Growth and Small Value factors respectively.
Admittedly, these are imperfect proxies, as they conflate Growth/Value factors with Momentum/Anti-Momentum factors. https://t.co/gEg6cxZtRR
12/20/2020 https://t.co/GPu8lfZay0
The problem with listening to @Jkylebass is that he can convince me of almost anything.
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) December 21, 2020
Great episode nonetheless with many interesting topics covered. Kyle made some points that I think are worth discussing.
Here are some highlights.\U0001f447\U0001f447 https://t.co/oJHQkmOa3q
More from Society
My reporting here convinced me that there's no large effect in either direction on labor force participation from child allowances. Canada has a bigger one than either Romney or Biden are considering, and more labor force participation among women.
But what if that wasn't true?
Forcing parents into low-wage, often exploitative, jobs by threatening them and their children with poverty may be counted as a success by some policymakers, but it’s a sign of a society that doesn’t value the most essential forms of labor.
The problem is in the very language we use. If I left my job as a New York Times columnist to care for my 2-year-old son, I’d be described as leaving the labor force. But as much as I adore him, there is no doubt I’d be working harder. I wouldn't have stopped working!
I tried to render conservative objections here fairly. I appreciate that @swinshi talked with me, and I'm sorry I couldn't include everything he said. I'll say I believe I used his strongest arguments, not more speculative ones, in the piece.
I appreciate his intellectual curiosity and effort. I have quibbles. But my big disappointment is there was no mention of unintended consequences, which we discussed and which are kind of THE core conservative concern on this issue.
— \U0001d682\U0001d68c\U0001d698\U0001d69d\U0001d69d \U0001d686\U0001d692\U0001d697\U0001d69c\U0001d691\U0001d692\U0001d699 (@swinshi) February 18, 2021
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The question is:
Is this an official account for Bahcesehir Uni (Bau)?
Bahcesehir Uni, BAU has an official website https://t.co/ztzX6uj34V which links to their social media, leading to their Twitter account @Bahcesehir
BAU’s official Twitter account
BAU has many departments, which all have separate accounts. Nowhere among them did I find @BAUDEGS
@BAUOrganization @ApplyBAU @adayBAU @BAUAlumniCenter @bahcesehirfbe @baufens @CyprusBau @bauiisbf @bauglobal @bahcesehirebe @BAUintBatumi @BAUiletisim @BAUSaglik @bauebf @TIPBAU
Nowhere among them was @BAUDEGS to find
1. LWJ’s sword Bichen ‘is likely an abbreviation for the term 躲避红尘 (duǒ bì hóng chén), which can be translated as such: 躲避: shunning or hiding away from 红尘 (worldly affairs; which is a buddhist teaching.) (https://t.co/zF65W3roJe) (abbrev. TWX)
2. Sandu (三 毒), Jiang Cheng’s sword, refers to the three poisons (triviṣa) in Buddhism; desire (kāma-taṇhā), delusion (bhava-taṇhā) and hatred (vibhava-taṇhā).
These 3 poisons represent the roots of craving (tanha) and are the cause of Dukkha (suffering, pain) and thus result in rebirth.
Interesting that MXTX used this name for one of the characters who suffers, arguably, the worst of these three emotions.
3. The Qian kun purse “乾坤袋 (qián kūn dài) – can be called “Heaven and Earth” Pouch. In Buddhism, Maitreya (मैत्रेय) owns this to store items. It was believed that there was a mythical space inside the bag that could absorb the world.” (TWX)