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eComm and D2C will be acutely impaired by the ATT opt-in mechanic coming to iOS (rumored made mandatory in March). ATT doesnt exclusively impact app advertisers, & in fact may disproportionately damage eComm and D2C. Some thoughts on how those advertisers should prepare (1/X)
2/ In the @MobileDevMemo 2020 mobile advertising predictions post, I posit that D2C ad spend may drop by as much as 50% in Q2 2020. FB revealed in December that app-to-web campaigns will be governed by ATT opt in, severely limiting campaign efficiency
3/ FB had only previously discussed ATT in terms of app campaign relevance. This new revelation likely stemmed from further instructions from Apple following FB's initial guidance
4/ FB affirmed in Dec that app-to-web campaigns will be: conversion event limited, aggregated at campaign level, and limited wrt attribution windows (default: 7-day click). This effectively replicates the privacy treatment of app campaigns on app-to-web campaigns
5/ Adam Lovallo from https://t.co/baV6VrUW7E describes 28-day click / 1-day view the "gold standard" for D2C. Why would FB change the default to 7-day? Because it is aggregating conversions at the campaign level -- universally, with what it is calling Aggregated Event Measurement
2/ In the @MobileDevMemo 2020 mobile advertising predictions post, I posit that D2C ad spend may drop by as much as 50% in Q2 2020. FB revealed in December that app-to-web campaigns will be governed by ATT opt in, severely limiting campaign efficiency
3/ FB had only previously discussed ATT in terms of app campaign relevance. This new revelation likely stemmed from further instructions from Apple following FB's initial guidance
4/ FB affirmed in Dec that app-to-web campaigns will be: conversion event limited, aggregated at campaign level, and limited wrt attribution windows (default: 7-day click). This effectively replicates the privacy treatment of app campaigns on app-to-web campaigns

5/ Adam Lovallo from https://t.co/baV6VrUW7E describes 28-day click / 1-day view the "gold standard" for D2C. Why would FB change the default to 7-day? Because it is aggregating conversions at the campaign level -- universally, with what it is calling Aggregated Event Measurement
The emergence of many new hypocrisies typically heralds an emerging new cultural synthesis.
Are you disturbed that you agree with one of those viewpoints? Or perhaps that other people you respect do?
1/x
Let me offer a framework for thinking about things like this, something called an “Omega Event.”
It was first described to me by Erik Martin, one of Reddit's first community managers:
In governance, Omega Events exist due to the fact that no system of beliefs, no worldview, no set of rules, can account for everything that will ever happen.
Eventually someone (or some group) will do something that lies outside the scope of all existing rules, and you will have to make decisions again from first principles.
Sometimes the Omega Event emerges from the confluence of many unrelated factors. When it does, it is wholly different from anything you’ve encountered.
Are you disturbed that you agree with one of those viewpoints? Or perhaps that other people you respect do?
1/x
\u2014 HYPOCRISY \u2014
— emily (@emnode) January 9, 2021
\U0001f4cdFree market conservatives outraged that a private social media company can decide who has access to its service.
\U0001f4cdSo called liberals overjoyed at the prospect of powerful corporations taking control of the content and information we're allowed to see.
Let me offer a framework for thinking about things like this, something called an “Omega Event.”
It was first described to me by Erik Martin, one of Reddit's first community managers:
In governance, Omega Events exist due to the fact that no system of beliefs, no worldview, no set of rules, can account for everything that will ever happen.
Eventually someone (or some group) will do something that lies outside the scope of all existing rules, and you will have to make decisions again from first principles.
Sometimes the Omega Event emerges from the confluence of many unrelated factors. When it does, it is wholly different from anything you’ve encountered.
20 Most Important Lesson of 2020
// A THREAD //
It was a fast and weird year.
The year of change.
My life changed a lot and I learned even more.
Here are the 20 most important lessons - which will shape the upcoming decade for me.
1. Systems Are Better Than Goals
In the past, I failed many of my goals.
This year I've realized that it could be caused by the fact that they were goals, not systems.
Thanks, @ScottAdamsSays for helping me realize this.
Short article on the topic: https://t.co/lyBqGBR0yM
2. Use Notion More
@NotionHQ is definitely the most useful tool I've discovered this year.
I use it for:
- Twitter
- Freelance CRM
- Content Creation
- Website project management
And for personal use, it's completely free.
3. Email Is Immortal
This year we saw on social sites:
- Shadow bans
- Normal bans
- Decreasing reach (e.g. during the presidential election)
That's why I believe building an independent audience e.g. email list is mandatory.
P.S. https://t.co/iuhQJIf80K
// A THREAD //

It was a fast and weird year.
The year of change.
My life changed a lot and I learned even more.
Here are the 20 most important lessons - which will shape the upcoming decade for me.

1. Systems Are Better Than Goals
In the past, I failed many of my goals.
This year I've realized that it could be caused by the fact that they were goals, not systems.
Thanks, @ScottAdamsSays for helping me realize this.
Short article on the topic: https://t.co/lyBqGBR0yM

2. Use Notion More
@NotionHQ is definitely the most useful tool I've discovered this year.
I use it for:
- Freelance CRM
- Content Creation
- Website project management
And for personal use, it's completely free.

3. Email Is Immortal
This year we saw on social sites:
- Shadow bans
- Normal bans
- Decreasing reach (e.g. during the presidential election)
That's why I believe building an independent audience e.g. email list is mandatory.
P.S. https://t.co/iuhQJIf80K

David Ogilvy is the King of Copywriting.
And in 1982 he writes a 38 lesson manifesto titled
"How to create advertising that sells"
Here are the top 7 tips that you can use today:
We Make the Wrong Promise
A promise is not a random claim or stupid slogan.
It is a benefit for the consumer.
And the product delivers that benefit.
Awards are Dumb
"Pursuing creative awards seduces creative people from pursuing sales."
Translation:
If your job is to sell, focus 100% of your energy on selling the product.
Not selling yourself to voters to win an award.
"Nobody was ever bored into buying a product."
Give it some magic and charm.
The iPhone vs. Blackberry is a modern
Hit the Headline
"On average, 5 times as many people read the headline vs. the body."
People are scared of writing clickbait titles.
But the truth is that clickbait exists only when you fail to keep your promise to the reader.
h/t @nicolascole77
And in 1982 he writes a 38 lesson manifesto titled
"How to create advertising that sells"
Here are the top 7 tips that you can use today:
We Make the Wrong Promise
A promise is not a random claim or stupid slogan.
It is a benefit for the consumer.
And the product delivers that benefit.
Awards are Dumb
"Pursuing creative awards seduces creative people from pursuing sales."
Translation:
If your job is to sell, focus 100% of your energy on selling the product.
Not selling yourself to voters to win an award.
"Nobody was ever bored into buying a product."
Give it some magic and charm.
The iPhone vs. Blackberry is a modern
Steve Jobs killed BlackBerry.
— Chris Hladczuk (@chrishlad) December 7, 2021
By creating a cult and inventing new rules
Here's the breakdown and why it matters\U0001f447
Hit the Headline
"On average, 5 times as many people read the headline vs. the body."
People are scared of writing clickbait titles.
But the truth is that clickbait exists only when you fail to keep your promise to the reader.
h/t @nicolascole77