Thread: My Mum the Brexit voter.

My mum is a working class single single mum of mixed race children.

We grew up in a council house on a horrid estate

Though she now retrained she was, throughout my life, employed in menial jobs or unemployed. Some times were okayish

Some times were awful. I hold a distinct memory from age 14ish - my old shoes got a huge hole in them. Unable to afford new shoes, I wore my mum's trainers, 1.5 sizes too small. I still get those familiar foot cramps even now, age 29 and a half. I digress. The okay-notokay times

Endured into my uni years. I was lucky to join a year BEFORE the tuition fee rises. My mum commented to me "they don't people like us, our kind, lads like you at uni". That was 2010s. The resentment, in me and her, was already tangible. Cameron the enemy already. This remained so

For a while. My mum was not very political and never voted. From 2010-2016 her only political commentary came came maybe 2 or 3 times a year, in which she believed Cameron-Osborne had some agenda against her as a single working class mum. That resentment and paranoia built.

In 2014/15, she didn't vote. She expressed regret as she felt bad for Ed Miliand. Why? Because in a Q+A session on disability grants (we had a severely disabled cousin, mitochondria syndrome) he used those underrated words - "I Don't Know." But promised he'd revise it as he

I’m so angry about this ‘haute Remain is responsible for hard Brexit’ bullshit. When I stood for Parliament in 2017, I stood in hustings and said ‘Brexit is happening. We demand the Government deliver on the promise of no down-side, and the Opposition hold them accountable’.

Neither of those things happened. For four years, the Governments of May and Johnson have at best negotiated in bad faith and at worst actively pursued no deal. They gaslight us constantly that this is ‘the will of the people’, when anyone not insane or punch drunk can see that

... for what it is, the ERG’s Reichstag Fire. As for the Opposition, the decision of Jeremy Corbyn not to hold the government accountable for five years was catastrophically damaging. It handed the role of opposition to hard nationalists within and without the Tory Party.

That is why the ERG set the agenda during the May premiership, and why, despite an 80 seat majority for the Tories, they still seem to hold sway. It is why the Nationalists in Scotland will succeed in Secession (or Scexit - let’s call it what it is, not ‘Independence’).

Now, at the 11th hour, we endure accusations from such diverse luminaries as Peter Mandelson and Owen Jones that this was, somehow, our fault? We, who did nothing but demand that politicians live up to their promises. Well fuck absolutely every single one of them.

There are just 16 days to go until the end of the transition period

But how ready is the UK? (Tl,dr – it’s not and realistically can't be fully prepared)

(Long) thread, building on our @instituteforgov paper from November (most of which still stands…)

First. What does being ready look like?

Deal or no deal – huge changes are coming in Jan. With new customs and regulatory checks at the border, new red tape and rules for businesses, the end of free movement of people +less effective security

In practice, the scale of these changes – and the limited time to prepare alongside covid- mean that the UK will never be fully ‘ready’. Inevitably there will be some disruption at the border, non-compliance with new rules and interrupted trade. Cannot foresee all eventualities.

What are the main stumbling blocks in preparations?
❌The GB-EU border
❌Business readiness
❓NI protocol - last week's agreement has resolved some issues – but there is still a lot to do

GB-EU border
The gov is just about on track to deliver IT systems infrastructure and people needed to make the GB-EU border work from Jan.
But a lot of this has come late in the day-leaving little time for full end-to-end testing and for businesses to make their own preparations

Thanks @Charlesknight for finding this gem.

First one is buy cars made in the UK. How many cars are they expecting me to buy?

How will the cars be made without the parts?

Go on holiday in the UK because going to the EU will be more expensive. This is great advice. Wouldn't have known what to do without it.

Buy more bluefin tuna from Japan. No sure that's strictly environmentally ideal.

I'd just like to place on record that #NoDealBrexit is just about the worst *political* idea I've ever heard. In the 1000% unlikely event I was advising the PM, I would be extremely strongly against.

It's the classic Weak Man's Strong Man decision, like Steve McClaren dropping David Beckham. Sugar rush of the call, then all your problems get much worse.

It supercharges your opponents, allows Labour all the political landscape, is a *vast* gift to the SNP, revives the Lib Dems - all at a stroke.

The public don't want No Deal. You just won an election promising to make it all go away. You're under attack for your competence on Covid. The last thing you need is loads more blame.

You need to move on, convince middle of the road voters who have peeled away. You need to talk infrastructure, jobs, Covid recovery, climate change, hospitals.

1/ As Brexit talks enter what might be their last few hours, the key hurdle to overcome is how to agree on what the EU calls 'managed divergence' and the UK has dubbed 'lightning tariffs'. Despite the doom and gloom, there are signs the sides aren't quite as far apart as appears.

2/ The EU has dropped its insistence on a 'ratchet clause' which would have formalised the principle both sides should keep up with each other's standards. It's now ready to cater for divergence in the future so long as there are strong safeguards to rebalance unfair competition.

3/ This is a shift from the EU, which previously rejected managed divergence as too messy and risky for its economies. They worried it would create constant uncertainty for them. It thus represents a fair departure from the EU's opening position on LPF.

4/ There is a difference between having a commitment to match standards hard-wired into the deal, failure to comply with which would be a breach of the agreement, and a mechanism written into the text catering for a decision to diverge and accept rebalancing measures in return.

5/ What the sides are now trying to thrash out is how unfair competition would be defined, the process for triggering rebalancing measures, and how extensive they'd be. The EU originally wanted the Commission to have the unilateral right to apply them - hence 'lightning tariffs'.

England with its brexit and its inept reactions have fucked the life of 11,000 hauliers MOST of which whom will never take a job delivering to england for at least a year. I have listened to 20 I know

"we were pushed to places, we had no choice, argument was met by threat of arrest. We had no food, no dignity, we were forced back into cabins if we tried to leave. They had dogs and tasers. "

Not one driver blames anyone but the british. many have been talking to their national governments and most have been told they will receive compensation.

They are saying "we are told to be in a driver zoo, no facilities, afraid, no lights, who is around my truck ? this country is like Russia.

These are the questions, big and small, that I will be asking about the shape and quality of a Brexit deal when the text is out:

(A long thread)

On manufactured goods:

1. Does the agreement provide zero-tariff and zero-quota access on all goods?

Where to find the answer: Chapter on Tariffs

2. Under what circumstances might tariffs be imposed in the future?

Where to find the answer: Chapters on Trade Remedies, on Subsidies, and Trade and Labour, and Trade and Environment

3. Is there “mutual recognition of conformity assessment”? If so, what products does it cover?

Chapter on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) and relevant annexes

4. What are the agreed “rules of origin” requirements?

Chapter on Rules of Origin

BREXIT DEAL- THREAD:

I shall vote for the agreement reached with the European Union. I shall do so not because it is perfect - far from it - but because it is the least worst of the options available. 1/24

To have ended the transition period with no deal at all would, I believe, have resulted in an economic stress and uncertainty that, on top of the damage caused to our economy by coronavirus, that would be quite simply unsustainable. 2/24

It appears to me, however, that we have spent the last four years and huge amounts of time, money and political capital reinventing the wheel. 3/24

The suggestion that we have “achieved a trade deal worth six hundred and fifty billion pounds “with the European Union has all the hallmarks of a “side- of- the-campaign- bus” slogan about it that is, to say the least, disingenuous. 4/24

What we are now presented with is an agreement that delivers most but not all of the trade arrangements that we previously enjoyed with the remaining twenty-seven countries of the European Union with strings attached and no further say in policy or regulation. 5/24

In June 2016, no one knew about No Deal AKA the WTO Option. Almost no one was calling for it. I had published something in 2015 about what would happen in a No Deal situation. It was not until June 2016 that people picked up on it and the FT phoned me. No one understood. THREAD

In June 2016, a lot of people didn’t expect Cameron to resign.

In the immediate aftermath of the vote, judging by their ‘soft’ responses, Vote Leave leader Boris Johnson and Vote Leave architect Daniel Hannan didn’t expect & didn't understand/foresee the radicalisation of their own side.

No one expected all Vote Leave figures to basically scarper and leave the EEA behind during summer 2016.

No one expected Northern Ireland to grow into the enormous issue it became.

It's now looking quite likely that Brexit will coincide with both a third lockdown and - if the longterm forecasts are correct - severe flooding.
Any one of these events would be a national crisis.
Together they could amount to a national catastrophe.
God help us.

Our government has a track record of:
- ignoring warnings
- leaving the necessary action to the last possible minute
- then bungling it
- using a crisis to enrich its friends and advance its political agenda
- leaving the poorest and most vulnerable to sink or swim

These tendencies, in combination with a possible concatenation of crises, present a severe threat to our wellbeing. We are not in good hands.

So once again we will have to rely on each other. It's going to be a hard grind in early 2021, perhaps the hardest many people in the UK will ever have experienced.
To the greatest extent possible, we'll have to support each other - materially and psychologically.

Of course, there's no complete substitute for good governance. The ideal combination is a strong society and a responsible government. But as we don't have the latter, we'll need to be as strong together as we can.

A year ago we left the EU, but the real impact of leaving will only be felt from tomorrow.

1/13

Although the ‘deal’ includes tariff free access to the single market and customs union – it still destroys friction free access to the EU markets, which will destroy many UK businesses and cost many UK jobs.

2/13

It of course fails to address the UK’s services industry – which represents 80% of trade with the EU.

3/13

But there are also other factors – lorry drivers will need to be paid more to wait in queues. Or they won’t come.

4/13

So there will be supply failures for product from the EU – impacting everything from supermarket shelves to car and aerospace manufacturing industries.

5/13

THURSDAY 24th

Merry Brexmas
-Johnson is expected to make the Brexit deal announcement today at around 08:00GMT
-Johnson will first talk to EU Chief at 07:00GMT to sign and seal after "late night wrangles over individual fish species" (not a joke)

-There were four secret calls between PM and EU chief VDL yesterday to get the deal over the line, VDL asked Johnson: “Do we have a deal?” to which the PM replied, “Yes.” 🍾
-Johnson is said to have made "huge concessions", likely to anger Brexiteers in Britain

-Senior European source says Johnson is willing to accept that the EU hands back just 25 percent of the value of fish it catches in British waters, over a 5.5-year transition period. The UK was previously insisting on 35 percent, over three years

-Sources say Boris showered Michael Gove with praise last night on the Cabinet call, Said his former rival and been "indispensable" in getting a deal, with planning and No Deal readiness🤗

South Africa travel ban
-Passengers travelling from South Africa to England today will be denied entry, after government scientists and ministers became increasingly alarmed about a new strain of the coronavirus that has emerged in the country.

Our experts have read through the 1,246 pages of the Brexit deal so you don't have to. Here are 13 things consumers need to know about the UK-EU deal ⬇️

1. You won't need a visa.

If you're travelling for up to 90 days in any 180 day period, you don't need to worry about getting a visa. This applies to any country in the EU, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland

2. To travel to the EU you will need at least six months of validity left on your passport.

And as far as your furry friends are concerned, the UK will no longer be part of the Pet Passport scheme. You'll need an Animal Health Certificate instead.

3. You should get yourself a Ghic (as well as travel insurance).

Similar to the Ehic, the Ghic is a UK government scheme. It will be available from 2021, but details are still being finalised. You can still use your Ehic card until it expires.

4. You'll still be entitled to compensation for flight delays. This rule only applies to flights on EU airlines or flights to or from EU airports. It’s possible that only passengers flying from the UK on EU airlines or from the EU to the UK will be covered.

Lots more to say on #Erasmus and 'replacement' #turingscheme. Students in Northern Ireland may still have access thanks to the Irish government. What about Scotland or Wales? Some considerable barriers here to think about. /1

Erasmus is an EU programme. It is established by a Regulation: a law covering the scope, how the programme works, funding etc over a 7 year period (2014-20). Higher Ed exchanges and Jean Monnet are the best known but also vocational training etc. /2

Participation from non-EU states is possible (Art 24). Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein are in the European Economic Area; Switzerland needs a bilateral agreement. I assume UK would need to be listed similarly to Switzerland in the new Regulation if it wanted to be in. /3

The 'acceding countries, candidate countries and potential candidates' has a specific scope, and does include Kosovo (not yet recognised by all Member States). Turkey in particular has been very active in Erasmus. /4

The European Neighbourhood Policy covers 16 neighbouring states in North Africa, Middle East (including Palestine) and Eastern Europe (except Russia) if a bilateral agreement concluded (yes for some, but not all at the moment). /5