🧠 11 of the best tweets by @jposhaughnessy

Jim Sir has a spectacular ability to simplify complex topics and put them in just a tweet or thread.

I scraped his entire tweet library - here are some of my faves 🔥🔥🔥

THREAD...

1/11

The brightest people I have met share a superpower that would serve investors well - the ability to make inherently complex things simple and understandable.

2/11

If you can change your focus, you can change your future.

Don’t spend a minute worrying about something that you can’t control. If something can’t be changed by you taking direct action, put it out of your mind.

Today’s society is overrun with useless distractions.

3/11

Things you learn as you get older:

Other people are far less interested in you than you think they are.

4/11

Investors:
Your "morning routine" doesn't matter;
Finding "clever hacks" won't help you;
Reading lists of "10 things all successful people" do won't help you;
Watching "motivational videos" won't help you.

What will?
Controlling your emotions, being patient and persistent.

#FranklinTempleton investors - our primary objective should be to safeguard our investment and not punish FT. Litigations will and should continue. But trying to teach FT a lesson by voting NO is shooting ourselves in the foot!!! Fire sale will destroy our investment

#FranklinTempleton investors - FT is anyways under a scanner. They cannot escape if they are doing anything wrong. But if Funds re-open , no one can save us and we will be doomed by our own choices

#FranklinTempleton investors - I know that everyone that FT has cheated us by illegally winding funds, however the point is that if we reopen now - everyone will redeem and it will be a panic situation where everyone will loose. A better option is to let the funds wind up orderly

One of an interesting thing in Current stock market,is as soon as Saturn progressing after Retrogression phase, gained the speed in trine to Rahu - Both raw Metals & oil prices are doing good. At the sametime Rahu trine alignment with Jupiter has also boomed the bank market.

Trine movement of Rahu along with Saturn and Jupiter has broken all the bullish trend setter records and amplified the internal economy. In March 2020, Pluto, Ketu and Mars has totally shaken the market into bearish trend.Keep Remember Rahu is trend setter - Strong Bearish,

Ketu - is Trend breaker- Strong bearish.

Untill and unless Jupiter is keep moving aggressively without any affliction with Atichari Motion market will keep booming.

Period of Affliction will start from 21 December 2020 onward & when Sun will Join Jupiter in January 2021

Jupiter will be in its most aggressive motion, This is the period when Market will start fluctuating real bad in January month upto Feburary 2021 period.

From 4th of January 2021 onward upto 28th January, 10th Feburary 2021, as soon as venus moves toward dhanu & Capricorn, when complete Sarpa dosha will begin, Jupiter will be in super speed with Sun, there will be heavy conjunction of 6 planet's form in Capricorn-

OK let me try math again.

GoodStaking: you invest X, like you would in a savings account. After many years it produces Y interest, of which Y/2 go to the reserve over time, and Y/2 becomes G$ that you own.

No, that's wrong. Jesus.

The entire Y goes into the reserve, and that generates a Z amount of G$.

Z/2 goes to people as UBI.

Z/2 goes to you.

OK, so I wasn't that far off.

If I donate a large amount of money to the reserve, what I am doing is emulating a large Y. I'm taking a ton of money that I *have* (so it would be a "principal" today, a X) and pretending it's like a Y of someone else that will do GoodStaking.

The money that I have is a small X. It will generate a small Y. Instead, I want to take my small X and pretend it's a large Y, which would originate from a large X. That I don't have. Because I'm poor.

So if I want to make the largest possible impact into the UBI reserve, to make a splash, and help it be noticed, I can take the small amount of money I have, the X I have, and pretend it's a Y of staking, and time warp it to the present and use the X to buy G$ from the reserve.

1/ A primer on how I achieved end to end automation via algos.

First up, Why?

Trades execute the moment your setups trigger. No hesitating/panicking/worrying/overthinking when you need to take a new trade daily. That's why. Also, spend less screen time going fwd.

2/ How long for the whole process?

3 to 4 weeks for your easier/easiest strategies if you have some (bare minimum is enough) amount of coding experience. Even basic experience writing loops helps the process.

3/ Honestly tho, like seriously, can we do this in under 4 weeks? Yes, for simple strategies that don't use too many indicators. You can slowly build your other strategies later on once the simpler stuff is up and running.

4/ Costs involved:
- Zerodha API subscription (2k per month).
- Historical data subscription (2k per month). You can unsub after the first month if you don't need it.
- Udemy course (Price keeps changing but it's 490/- right now).
- AWS (Free tier for the first year)

5/ What language?

Python as it is relatively easy with a lot of inbuilt libraries. C++ is better and faster I'm told but it's not like you are running nanosecond HFT strategies with your peasant like retail capital.

Open letter to all S&P 500 benchmarked managers:

On Friday 12/18 at market close, $TSLA will enter the S&P 500 Index at an approximate 1.5% weight - the sixth largest weight in the S&P 500 index after $AAPL, $MSFT, $AMZN, $GOOGL, and $FB.

2/Goldman says 90% of you don’t own $TSLA, and you probably never had much interest in owning it, since it trades at 169x consensus 2021 EPS, and is +665% YTD. Surely you can ignore it for a little longer, and wait for it to come back down to Earth.

That would be a huge mistake.

3/ CNBC talking heads who know nothing about $TSLA have long proclaimed it to be overvalued. Celebrity shorts and sell side analysts who blindly compare it to other auto companies have been wrong about TSLA for years. Investors who I think are smart sound like empty suits...

4/ when they try to explain why $TSLA keeps going up.

I’ll tell you why $TSLA keeps going up, and why it could double again in 2021 (at 1.5% wt, a double will cost you 150 bp performance).

First, EVs will soon replace gas-powered cars, yet EVs today are just 3% of global SAAR.

5/ As with IPhone, once a customer goes EV, he/she never goes back. By 2025, EVs are likely to be 20% of global SAAR. Do the math: 20/3 = 6.7x = 46% CAGR.

Second, $TSLA is by far the global EV market leader, with 25% YTD global EV share. TSLA continues to grow its share...

Australian iron ore producer Fortescue (FMG AU) is a great example of how value investing often works in practice. In 2018 the stock was trading for A$4. It was cheap at spot iron ore - a mid single digit FCF multiple, even w historically high discounts on low-grade 58pc Fe (1/n)

The reason it was cheap was investors believed the increased 58pc discount was structural not cyclical, and benchmark iron ore prices of US$60-70/MT were not sustainable - Chinese demand would surely falter, and send prices down to US$40-50/MT (2/n).

I basically agreed with the market. That was also my expectation. But I decided to buy some anyway because I recognized I could be wrong, and if either iron ore prices stayed at US$60/MT or rose; OR 58pc discounts narrowed to historical levels, the stock would prove very cheap.

Meanwhile, the stock was fairly priced on the base case market expectation (mirroring my own), at perhaps a HSD FCF yield. Not many investors make an investment on the basis that they might be wrong, but I did due to (1) the asymmetry; and (2) the future being hard to predict.

So what happened? Unexpectedly, there was a Vale dam failure in Brazil, taking out several 10ms MT of supply. Chinese demand remained strong. 58pc discounts narrowed, and covid further interrupted Brazilian supply, while Chinese have stimulated infra to offset covid headwinds.

"Pets are family". Been tracking 13 stocks but only own $CHWY. I will add BarkBox, $STIC when it lists. The company has a valuation of $1.6B with $350M in revenue, profitable
Others: #PetsAreFamily
$CHD
$CHWY
$ELAN
$FRPT
$HSKA
$IDXX
$PAWZ
$PETQ
$PETS
$SPB
$TRUP
$TSCO
$ZTS

BarkBox is a monthly subscription box filled with dog toys and treats. Co. has 1 million + subscribers to its monthly box. Its sells its products on $TGT and $AMZN as well.
Founded in Dec 2011, by Matt Meeker, Carly Strife, Henrik Werdelin in New York.

One month your dog might receive a collection of treats and toys. BarkBox might send him on a journey through Chewrassic Bark. Each box contains two innovative toys, two bags of all-natural treats, a chew, and a specially curated item from the month's themed collection.

Every toy is designed by in-house industrial designers, made for the way dogs play and approved by the company's own test dogs. You can choose a one-month subscription ($29), six months ($25/box), or 12 months ($22/box).

BarkBox is very allergy friendly. Every BarkBox is free from corn, wheat, and soy, which greatly reduces the risk for triggering allergies and food sensitivities.
You can reorder certain items or purchase items from other collections online.

There is a money-back guarantee

Thread:

"When is Alt Season?" is a question we all ask a lot so let's take a look at a possible scenario that could answer that question.

The last real alt season occurred directly following the Dec. 17, 2017 $BTC ATH.

IMO we need Bitcoin to make a real run before it brings back the dumb money.

The previous Bitcoin run up began approx Dec. 16, 2016 when it broke its previous high and began a journey into price discovery. Let's compare that to now. We just poked through to a new ATH the other day, but the journey is just beginning. In 2016 alts didnt immediately go nuts

when btc entered price discovery. There are windows of alt movements during a larger bitcoin move where you get mini alt seasons such as June-July 2017 and most recently, May-Aug 2020. These are just periods where Bitcoin ranges and lets alts move.

So, what started the '17-'18 season then? Well, that's easy. FOMO

That FOMO didn't begin until roughly November of 2017, 11 months AFTER Bitcoin entered price discovery.

And the mania didn't begin until early December 2017 almost 1 year after Bitcoin entered price discovery.

We are short $MVIS. In a market gone mad, this $1.2 billion market cap corporate husk with almost no revenue or intellectual property value is a standout.

It has risen 5,000% from lows this year on misguided retail euphoria over its LiDAR IP portfolio amid a broad EV bubble.

Retail investors have latched onto the company's portfolio of 250+ active patents, but an IP attorney we engaged found that only ~10 $MVIS issued patents even mention LiDAR.

Of those, many are oriented toward consumer/non-automotive use.

These patents haven't faced inter partes review (IPR) challenges yet, significantly reducing their value.

“No one buys patents these days for any real money unless the patents have been put through the test of at least an IPR,” our IP attorney told us.

The recent excitement all belies the fact that $MVIS is essentially a science project that has gone nowhere after 25 years.

It was trading around $0.20 in April of this year and contemplating sale or liquidation.

But EV mania presented an opportunity.

In November, the company put financing documents in place then announced the very next day that it hopes to have a LiDAR demo product by April 2021.

thread

LESS IS MORE?

Fishing Opportunities

1. I'm reading the summary on the UK/EU trade agreement & have some concerns. It's not the full blown text, just an outline of the negotiated agreement so I may be needlessly cynical, we'll have to wait & see.

2. The 25% UK uplift of the value the EU member states catch in UK waters.

I see difficulties with this whichever way I try to spin it to myself:
a) The EU are reducing quotas in fishing waters for some species due to issues with sustainability.

3. So our uplift could cause over fishing of stocks in our own waters. The summary doesn't mention if/how EU access to our waters will be reduced?

b) But assuming the quotas are reduced in line with other member states waters, we could have a reduced income rather than uplift.

4. The 25% uplift is implemented over 5 yrs. So for the sake of argument let's assume it's 5% per yr. But if EU quotas are being reduced by an average of say 10% by weight, that 10% has a value attached to it & our annual uplift will be calculated in line with the lower quotas.

5. Although in theory there'd be a point in 2 yrs where our 5% increments would match the reduced EU quotas, the scientific advisers are calling for greater reductions in quotas to allow stocks to recover, so it's likely quotas will be cut again.

More thoughts on $FISV following investor day last week

This time focused on the newly named FinTech segment: core account processing and digital banking arm of legacy Fiserv

TLDR: While it’s the smallest segment (~20% of FISV revenue), it’s the “glue” that ties things together

1) $FISV FinTech segment is the #1 provider of core processing and digital banking solutions to the ~11,000 banks and credit unions in the US

Its mission critical systems power 3,700 FIs:
- core processor for 1 out of every 3 banks
- digital offering for 95 out of top 100 banks

2) This segment dates back to the origins of $FISV, and today it’s the market share leader with nearly 40% of all US banks relying on FISV to power everything from new account opening, items processing, online/mobile banking, regulatory compliance, general ledger/reporting, etc

3) Not just the market leader, $FISV is also has a best-in-class offering

Well regarded Aite Group rates it better than nearest competitors $FIS $JKHY

Today, these 3 dominate the market and maintain an oligopoly structure, with various other point solutions pretty far behind

4) $FIS skews larger multinational banks (2x+ as many $10B+ banks as FISV/JKHY combined) and $JKHY is 1,700+ community/credit unions

However, the sweet spot for $FISV is $1-50B banks (now 500+ as clients) while also maintaining a strong base of 3,200+ community/credit unions

0/ We've highlighted FinTech infrastructure co's like BR, FIS, JKHY, MA, V, ICE, NDAQ, etc. as companies w/ a variety of moats that have led to dominant mkt share & outperformance despite being 50+ years old on avg.

$FISV had their investor day yesterday and laid out the why.

1/ $FISV highlights the fact that they have #1 market share in core accounting processing for $1-$50B FI’s; they are doing $1.0B in global e-Commerce revenue, and have more than $30B available for capital allocation over the next 5 years (read more M&A for FinTech co's)

2/ They have global reach with clients in more than 100 countries, more than 1,000 products & services, 10,000+ FI clients, & 6M merchant locations.

All while being #1 as a core account processor, merchant acquirer, bill pay, P2P payments, etc...

3/ This business model + market positioning has led to incredibly strong outperformance since inception ~35 years ago with cumulative $FISV shareholder returns of +42,171% vs. the $SPY at 3,327% & Nasdaq at 4,355%.

4/ $FISV has grown via a series of acquisitions over the past 30 years most recently the $22B tie up w/ First Data.

They highlight the progress on the deal & new goals post integration.

M&A is a skill & FISV has it financially; tech integration leaves something to be desired

A THREAD on some insightful thoughts about Investing & Financial Independence by Rohit Chauhan (@rohitchauhan) Sir:

1/

The unfortunate reality of markets is that the last one to panic loses the most. So if you must panic, do it early or else don’t.

2/10

Investing is such a solitary activity where you are fighting your own bias and lack of knowledge; that it is amazing to see people argue and fight with others about the merit of their investment ideas.

Other than preserving your ego, what good can defending your ideas do?

3/

Thank god, my parents did not do a DCF on me like a lot of investors do in their analysis. Negative free cash flow during investment phase (school & college) & conclude my NPV was -ve. Good thing there is no way to short your kids. U are forced to be long & hope for the best.

4/10

It's a privileged life if one of the main worries in life is how to beat the market.

Less than 0.1% of humanity has this worry. It is the highest of high class problem.

5/10

25x is a good threshold for financial independence, where x is annual expenses.

Focus on fulfillment and not money beyond that. If you still chase money, then it’s not the money you are after.

Sam Walton: Made in America
[Autobiography of Wal-Mart's Founder]

- Creating Value for customers
- Being obsessed with Cost Control
- Taking care of employees
- Learning and Innovating
- Why stores Failed
- Sam’s Rules for Building a Business(Must Read)

A Thread 🧵👇

2/ Wal-Mart today is a $400B market-cap company with over $500B in revenues, $15B of net profits, and over $25B in operating cash flows. It also owns a majority stake in Flipkart, and thereby in Myntra and PhonePe.

3/ Develop Communication/People’s skill: “I learned early on that one of the secrets to campus leadership was the simplest thing of all, speak to people coming down the sidewalk before they speak to you.”

4/ Be obsessed with providing value to the customers, save them money by tightly controlling costs: On business trips, Sam Walton and his colleagues used to stay in one or two rooms, once 8 of them shared one room. Expenses were capped at 1% of the purchases.

5/ “We exist to provide value to our customers, which means that in addition to quality and service, we have to save them money. Every time Walmart spends one dollar foolishly, it comes right out of our customer’s pockets."

Finance Vs Economics.https://t.co/FknPKywifs business information.

Starting a house based enterprise and not using a business plan is suicide. Distribution is how you will get your product into the arms of your prospects.

1/

Get a cup of Bru coffee.

Today I will help you understand a simple implied growth calculator to find a stock buy level. Let's get started.

(A short thread)

2/

As you might know, The value of a stock is the present value of its lifetime cash flows.

For the long term buy and hold investor, the real cash flow from the stock is dividend income over its lifetime.

3/

In 1959, M J Gordon proposed a formula for this. The formula is

Value = D/(r-g)

Whereas

D = Expected dividends.
r = Required rate of return.
g = Dividend growth rate in perpetuity.

A detailed derivation of the formula is given at the end.

4/

Now, let's be honest, it is next to impossible to predict the growth rate in perpetuity for a firm.

So we twist the formula a little bit. Rather than finding out value, we find the *implied growth rate* This helps us to make deals with Mr. Market.

5/

Here is some math:

Value = D/(r-g)

r-g = D/value

D/value is nothing but dividend yield, so we substitute the same.

r-g = Dividend yield

g = r-Dividend yield

*Implied growth = Required rate of return - Dividend yield*