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The anatomy of a scenario...

A 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱 on how mitigation works, why we probably need some level of carbon capture & storage (CCS) & carbon dioxide removal (CDR) - just not as much as in scenarios.

Based on my presentation ↦ https://t.co/j5uLxUi0xF


2. We start with a baseline or reference scenario, that assumes no or limited mitigation. If we want to stay "well below 2°C" we need to get rid of the dark grey & be net-zero!

We can argue about the baseline, but for the purposes here, it doesn't matter
https://t.co/C0dAdj65tl


3. The heavy lifting is done by conventional mitigation: behavioural change, energy efficiency, fuel switching (fossils to non-fossils), changed transport, dematerialisation, etc, etc...

But, scenarios suggest this is not enough to get rid of all greenhouse gases.


4. In some sectors, particularly some industrial sectors, perhaps the cheapest or only way to mitigate is with carbon capture & storage (CCS), eg, cement, steel, chemicals, etc

This is one reason we need CCS...


5. We can't forget about non-CO₂ emissions. We can probably get most non-CO₂ out of industry, but what about agriculture? Even if we change diet, reduce food waste, etc, we may not be able to eliminate CH₄ or N₂O from agriculture.

Some CO₂ & non-CO₂ remains (dark grey)...
The solution to this problem is to figure out credible reasons to justify the number of indian military personnel, and the expenses of maintaining this relationship. Once you do that, reveal the details, and they lose leverage to push through this issue. /1


And that means owning up to why Indian military assistance is needed. This requires large national conversation about the threat of Islamic extremists in the Maldives, explain the dangers and the opportunity cost of an attack etc. /2

People will except we'll reasoned decision making. And the public already has a frame of reference to indian military assistance from November 3rd 1988. So none of this is new or a surprise. /3

What is being weaponised is this imagined spectre of loss of autonomy for the country by collaborating with indian military on national security issues. This is an easy problem to solve. /4

The solution is merely laying out how national autonomy is maintained in such a national security collaboration. It's not like the Maldives can defend itself from any foreign military invasion anyways. /5