Jay_millerjay's Categories
Jay_millerjay's Authors
Latest Saves
THREAD: Who are the rising stars of Chinese elite politics in the central Party-State bureaucracy?
For @MacroPoloChina I analyzed last year's ministerial-level promotions to posts in Beijing
TLDR: Ties to Xi Jinping—or a Xi ally—are very helpful! (1/14)
https://t.co/kO2A0Efyq2
Seven politicians were promoted to ministerial-level positions in central Party agencies last year
All are likely to feature on the next Central Committee selected at the 2022 Party Congress
Some could make the CCP's elite 25-person Politburo (2/14)
https://t.co/kO2A0Efyq2
Likeliest for the Politburo is Meng Xiangfeng, new Executive Deputy Director of the CCP General Office
He would replace Xi ally Ding Xuexiang as CCP chief-of-staff if Ding is promoted further in 2022
Meng worked under Xi allies Cai Qi in Hangzhou and Chen Xi in Liaoning (3/14)
Less likely for the Politburo but still important is Jiang Jinquan, new Director of the CCP Policy Research Office
He replaces 5th-ranked leader Wang Huning who led the Party's brains trust for 18 years
Wang remains prominent and will be <68 in 2022, so he'll stay around (4/14)
Other notable central Party promotions include Li Shulei and Liang Yanshun, who both assisted Xi when he led the Central Party School from 2007-2012
Li is a political conservative who is said to be quite close with Xi, even drafting his 2014 speech on culture and art (5/14)
For @MacroPoloChina I analyzed last year's ministerial-level promotions to posts in Beijing
TLDR: Ties to Xi Jinping—or a Xi ally—are very helpful! (1/14)
https://t.co/kO2A0Efyq2
Seven politicians were promoted to ministerial-level positions in central Party agencies last year
All are likely to feature on the next Central Committee selected at the 2022 Party Congress
Some could make the CCP's elite 25-person Politburo (2/14)
https://t.co/kO2A0Efyq2
Likeliest for the Politburo is Meng Xiangfeng, new Executive Deputy Director of the CCP General Office
He would replace Xi ally Ding Xuexiang as CCP chief-of-staff if Ding is promoted further in 2022
Meng worked under Xi allies Cai Qi in Hangzhou and Chen Xi in Liaoning (3/14)
Less likely for the Politburo but still important is Jiang Jinquan, new Director of the CCP Policy Research Office
He replaces 5th-ranked leader Wang Huning who led the Party's brains trust for 18 years
Wang remains prominent and will be <68 in 2022, so he'll stay around (4/14)
Other notable central Party promotions include Li Shulei and Liang Yanshun, who both assisted Xi when he led the Central Party School from 2007-2012
Li is a political conservative who is said to be quite close with Xi, even drafting his 2014 speech on culture and art (5/14)
The 12 most important pieces of information and concepts I wish I knew about equity, as a software engineer.
A thread.
1. Equity is something Big Tech and high-growth companies award to software engineers at all levels. The more senior you are, the bigger the ratio can be:
2. Vesting, cliffs, refreshers, and sign-on clawbacks.
If you get awarded equity, you'll want to understand vesting and cliffs. A 1-year cliff is pretty common in most places that award equity.
Read more in this blog post I wrote: https://t.co/WxQ9pQh2mY
3. Stock options / ESOPs.
The most common form of equity compensation at early-stage startups that are high-growth.
And there are *so* many pitfalls you'll want to be aware of. You need to do your research on this: I can't do justice in a tweet.
https://t.co/cudLn3ngqi
4. RSUs (Restricted Stock Units)
A common form of equity compensation for publicly traded companies and Big Tech. One of the easier types of equity to understand: https://t.co/a5xU1H9IHP
5. Double-trigger RSUs. Typically RSUs for pre-IPO companies. I got these at Uber.
6. ESPP: a (typically) amazing employee perk at publicly traded companies. There's always risk, but this plan can typically offer good upsides.
7. Phantom shares. An interesting setup similar to RSUs... but you don't own stocks. Not frequent, but e.g. Adyen goes with this plan.
A thread.
1. Equity is something Big Tech and high-growth companies award to software engineers at all levels. The more senior you are, the bigger the ratio can be:
2. Vesting, cliffs, refreshers, and sign-on clawbacks.
If you get awarded equity, you'll want to understand vesting and cliffs. A 1-year cliff is pretty common in most places that award equity.
Read more in this blog post I wrote: https://t.co/WxQ9pQh2mY
3. Stock options / ESOPs.
The most common form of equity compensation at early-stage startups that are high-growth.
And there are *so* many pitfalls you'll want to be aware of. You need to do your research on this: I can't do justice in a tweet.
https://t.co/cudLn3ngqi
4. RSUs (Restricted Stock Units)
A common form of equity compensation for publicly traded companies and Big Tech. One of the easier types of equity to understand: https://t.co/a5xU1H9IHP
5. Double-trigger RSUs. Typically RSUs for pre-IPO companies. I got these at Uber.
6. ESPP: a (typically) amazing employee perk at publicly traded companies. There's always risk, but this plan can typically offer good upsides.
7. Phantom shares. An interesting setup similar to RSUs... but you don't own stocks. Not frequent, but e.g. Adyen goes with this plan.
Excited we finally have a draft of this paper, which attempts to provide a 'unifying theory' of the long economic divergence between the Middle East & Western Europe
As we see it, there are 3 recent theories that hit on important aspects of the divergence...
1/
One set of theories focus on the legitimating power of Islam (Rubin, @prof_ahmetkuru, Platteau). This gave religious clerics greater power, which pulled political resources away form those encouraging economic development
But these theories leave some questions unanswered...
2/
Religious legitimacy is only effective if people
care what religious authorities dictate. Given the economic consequences, why do people remain religious, and thereby render religious legitimacy effective? Is religiosity a cause or a consequence of institutional arrangements?
3/
Another set of theories focus on the religious proscriptions of Islam, particular those associated with Islamic law (@timurkuran). These laws were appropriate for the setting they formed but had unforeseeable consequences and failed to change as economic circumstances changed
4/
There are unaddressed questions here, too
Muslim rulers must have understood that Islamic law carried proscriptions that hampered economic development. Why, then, did they continue to use Islamic institutions (like courts) that promoted inefficiencies?
5/
As we see it, there are 3 recent theories that hit on important aspects of the divergence...
1/
New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP15802
— CEPR (@cepr_org) February 14, 2021
Culture, Institutions & the Long Divergence@albertobisin @nyuniversity, Jared Rubin @jaredcrubin @ChapmanU, Avner Seror @SerorAvner @amseaixmars @univamu, Thierry Verdier @PSEinfohttps://t.co/lhs6AJb7jE#CEPR_DE, #CEPR_EH, #CEPR_ITRE pic.twitter.com/FtMzAELljJ
One set of theories focus on the legitimating power of Islam (Rubin, @prof_ahmetkuru, Platteau). This gave religious clerics greater power, which pulled political resources away form those encouraging economic development
But these theories leave some questions unanswered...
2/
Religious legitimacy is only effective if people
care what religious authorities dictate. Given the economic consequences, why do people remain religious, and thereby render religious legitimacy effective? Is religiosity a cause or a consequence of institutional arrangements?
3/
Another set of theories focus on the religious proscriptions of Islam, particular those associated with Islamic law (@timurkuran). These laws were appropriate for the setting they formed but had unforeseeable consequences and failed to change as economic circumstances changed
4/
There are unaddressed questions here, too
Muslim rulers must have understood that Islamic law carried proscriptions that hampered economic development. Why, then, did they continue to use Islamic institutions (like courts) that promoted inefficiencies?
5/
(1/50)
#Cardano “Understanding Kamali”
#Cardano will be the underpinning of the emergence of Africa.
To grasp the full weight of the SOLUTIONS #Cardano can provide it is pertinent to read “Understanding Africa” as I will draw directly from the PROBLEMS laid out.
(2/50)
Here is a link if you have not already read
(3/50)
What I will attempt to do here, is to create an immersive world for you to be placed in to grasp the weight and size of problems from the ground level and then take a grass-roots approach at solving them using #Cardano and its technology.
(4/50)
As an investor and community member of #Cardano, this should be extremely important to you as you have a stake (pun intended) in this.
“You are paid in direct proportion to the difficulty of the problems you solve” - @elonmusk
(5/50)
In Africa, agribusiness, more than any other sector, has the potential to reduce poverty and drive economic growth. Agriculture accounts for nearly half of the continent’s gross domestic product and employs 60 percent of the labor force.
#Cardano “Understanding Kamali”
#Cardano will be the underpinning of the emergence of Africa.
To grasp the full weight of the SOLUTIONS #Cardano can provide it is pertinent to read “Understanding Africa” as I will draw directly from the PROBLEMS laid out.
(2/50)
Here is a link if you have not already read
(1/38) #Cardano \u201cUnderstanding Africa\u201d (Part 1 of 2)
— FatCat (@fatcatofcrypto) February 10, 2021
This thread will be split into two parts with the 2nd coming out on Sunday.
Part 1 will layout the pervasive PROBLEMS Africa faces whereas Part 2 will apply direct technologies @InputOutputHK can implement as SOLUTIONS. pic.twitter.com/n3I91bnddq
(3/50)
What I will attempt to do here, is to create an immersive world for you to be placed in to grasp the weight and size of problems from the ground level and then take a grass-roots approach at solving them using #Cardano and its technology.
(4/50)
As an investor and community member of #Cardano, this should be extremely important to you as you have a stake (pun intended) in this.
“You are paid in direct proportion to the difficulty of the problems you solve” - @elonmusk
(5/50)
In Africa, agribusiness, more than any other sector, has the potential to reduce poverty and drive economic growth. Agriculture accounts for nearly half of the continent’s gross domestic product and employs 60 percent of the labor force.
I missed that DOJ has posted the individual certificates listing what offenses Trump pardoned for each person listed in his January 19 master clemency warrant, which had names but didn't spell out the covered crimes. https://t.co/oL44VoCVbr
Here's Steve Bannon's, for example.
Here's Elliot Broidy, a Trump fund-raiser who admitted to a role in a covert campaign to influence the administration on behalf of Chinese and Malaysian interests.
https://t.co/tvpHORLrps
Here's Ken Kurson, a former Giuliani speechwriter and former editor of a newspaper Jared Kushner owned, who had been charged with cyberstalking
https://t.co/HxcexSK4Sc
Here's Aviem Sella, an Israeli who had been a fugitive from 1987 esionage and subversive activities charges related to recruiting a spy against the United States, Jonathan Pollard. (He was never extradited and pardoning him was a favor toNetanyahu.)
https://t.co/neHjN57ok3
Here's Dwayne Michael Carter a/k/a Lil Wayne, who had pleaded guilty to firearm offenses
https://t.co/yixm1fTR2b
Here's Steve Bannon's, for example.
Here's Elliot Broidy, a Trump fund-raiser who admitted to a role in a covert campaign to influence the administration on behalf of Chinese and Malaysian interests.
https://t.co/tvpHORLrps
Here's Ken Kurson, a former Giuliani speechwriter and former editor of a newspaper Jared Kushner owned, who had been charged with cyberstalking
https://t.co/HxcexSK4Sc
Here's Aviem Sella, an Israeli who had been a fugitive from 1987 esionage and subversive activities charges related to recruiting a spy against the United States, Jonathan Pollard. (He was never extradited and pardoning him was a favor toNetanyahu.)
https://t.co/neHjN57ok3
Here's Dwayne Michael Carter a/k/a Lil Wayne, who had pleaded guilty to firearm offenses
https://t.co/yixm1fTR2b
I should mention, this is why I keep talking about this. Because I know so many people who legally CAN'T.
How do I know they have NDAs, if they can't talk legally about them? Because they trusted me with their secrets... after I said something. That's how they knew I was safe.
Some of the people who have reached out to me privately have been sitting with the pain of what happened to them and the regret that they signed for YEARS. But at the time, it didn't seem like they had any other option BUT to sign.
I do not blame *anyone* for signing an NDA, especially when it's attached to a financial lifeline. When you feel like your family's wellbeing is at stake, you'll do anything -- even sign away your own voice -- to provide for them. That's not a "choice"; that's survival.
And yes, many of the people whose stories I now know were pressured into signing an NDA by my husband's ex-employer. Some of whom I *never* would have guessed. People I thought "left well." Turns out, they've just been *very* good at abiding by the terms of their NDA.
(And others who have reached out had similar experiences with other Christian orgs. Turns out abuse, and the use of NDAs to cover up that abuse, is rampant in a LOT of places.)
How do I know they have NDAs, if they can't talk legally about them? Because they trusted me with their secrets... after I said something. That's how they knew I was safe.
And if the environment at the org was toxic or abusive, it is not uncommon to not realize the extent of that toxicity/abuse until after you're out. But by the time you realize that you signed under duress and presumed good faith where none existed, you're out of options.
— Lauren Thoman (@LaurenThoman) February 16, 2021
Some of the people who have reached out to me privately have been sitting with the pain of what happened to them and the regret that they signed for YEARS. But at the time, it didn't seem like they had any other option BUT to sign.
I do not blame *anyone* for signing an NDA, especially when it's attached to a financial lifeline. When you feel like your family's wellbeing is at stake, you'll do anything -- even sign away your own voice -- to provide for them. That's not a "choice"; that's survival.
And yes, many of the people whose stories I now know were pressured into signing an NDA by my husband's ex-employer. Some of whom I *never* would have guessed. People I thought "left well." Turns out, they've just been *very* good at abiding by the terms of their NDA.
(And others who have reached out had similar experiences with other Christian orgs. Turns out abuse, and the use of NDAs to cover up that abuse, is rampant in a LOT of places.)
