BC SCIENCE
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

#DDDD $LBPS $LOAC

A thread on the potential near term catalysts behind why I have increased my position in 4d Pharma @4dpharmaplc (LON: #DDDD):

 1) NASDAQ listing. This is the most obvious.

The idea behind this is that the huge pool of capital and institutional interest in the NASDAQ will enable a higher per-share valuation for #DDDD than was achievable in the UK.
Comparators to @4dpharmaplc #DDDD (market capitalisation £150m) on the NASDAQ and their market capitalisation:
Seres Therapeutics: $2.33bn = £1.72bn (has had a successful phase 3 C. difficile trial); from my previous research (below) the chance of #DDDD achieving this at least once is at least 90%.

https://t.co/O8Fd9uuR7f
Kaleido Biosciences: $347m = £256m. 4 products under consideration, compared to #DDDD's potential 16. When you view @4dpharmaplc's 1000+ patents and AI-driven MicroRx platform (not to mention their end-to-end manufacturing capability), 4d's undervaluation is clear.
Evelo Biosciences: $496m = £366m. 11 potential treatments under consideration compared to #DDDD's 16. 4d's IP, platform and manufacturing are superior. Very arguable that 4d should be comparably valued. @lramseu's content is excellent for comparisons.
This does not take into account the recent frenzy for IPOs/SPAC offerings, like #DDDD. In fact, however, without DraftKings and Nikola included, SPAC returns are negative - hence the case for 4d rests firmly on fundamentals.

https://t.co/EHvA8xVbep.
2) Potential Blautix Phase 3 trial. The below graphic taken from @AimHardy's excellent research shows #DDDD's Blautix was comparable to existing IBS-C and D offerings.
It offers a far superior safety profile however, making it the potential treatment of choice, especially for the $1.1bn-$1.65bn IBS-M market (patients whose symptoms fluctuate between IBS-C and D).
The fact that c. 60% of phase 3 trials are a success notwithstanding, comparing Blautix with Seres' C.difficile trial shows how selecting for specific biomarkers/genotype can yield a highly successful final stage trial.
Just the initiation of a trial netted Seres $20m from Nestlé Health Science, excluding the revenues from developing a safe live biotherapeutic. The potential for #DDDD to rerate, just based on precedent (Seres jumped c. 500% on their P3 success) is colossal.
It is likely that the announcement of a phase 3 trial and partner would lead to some of this movement being priced in, given the favourable chance of a success. Hence it is a potential near term (3-6 month) catalyst, and if not, a potential long term catalyst.
3) Potential FDA fast track for MRx0518. Interim analysis for the #DDDD treatment on its own yielded the following (from 17 individuals under trial):
"Following MRx0518 treatment, relative increases in cytotoxic cells, CD8+ T cells and other immune subsets associated with anti-tumor activity were observed in paired tumor samples.
Upregulation of key immuno-stimulatory anti-tumor cytokines and chemokines, such as IL-12 and CXCL10, was observed in post-treatment plasma samples."
Gene expression analysis identified significant expression changes in 98 genes (p<0.05) in paired samples as a result of MRx0518 treatment, including upregulation of pathways associated with antigen presentation, costimulatory signaling, cytokine and chemokine signaling, known
…to promote anti-tumor immune activity."

This is for #DDDD's treatment group who had exhausted many previous options and had metastatic cancer.
The fact that #DDDD's treatment is clearly having an effect without significant side effects is extremely important (as patients may forgo treatment due to side effects alone), and certainly presents the opportunity for fast-track approval.
To me, it belongs in this list of 2020 fast track approvals:

https://t.co/GFsF6ZYraA

This is without taking into account #DDDD's trial of MRx0518 with Merck $MRK's Keytruda, which is likely to yield as high if not greater efficacy than MRx0518 alone.
4) Potential Merck takeover. This is more dubious so can be listed as a fringe point.
#DDDD's bacterial vaccine partnership with Merck yields a potential $347.5m in milestone payments, and if other treatments show further efficacy then, given Merck's interest in the MicroRx platform and live biotherapeutics (they own 6% of 4d) they may well consider a takeover,…
…which typically occur at a substantial premium to the current share price. Takoevers of Rebiotix and Epibiome in recent history offer validation of this theory.
The key here is if #DDDD become attractive enough to be taken over, their share price would have likely enjoyed a substantial re rate from today's levels already.
To summarise, I believe #DDDD offers substantial long-term value. However there are a number of potential near term catalysts, chiefly a NASDAQ listing, which have prompted me to increase my position in the short term from its historical average.
I believe a #DDDD rerate (and a subsequent SP multiplying of 2-3x given 4d have cash till Q4) could well happen in the coming 3-6 months, and I have positioned accordingly.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

#DDDD $LBPS $LOAC

More from Science

Jason Hickel
Jason Hickel
@jasonhickel
Here's more on the new mitigation scenario for 1.5C. How does it work? What would society look like? Are we willing to do what's required to stop climate breakdown? See thread.


1. Most models assume we need to keep growing the economy indefinitely. The problem is this makes it impossible to transition to zero emissions quickly enough; so they speculate on geoengineering and negative-emissions technologies to save us. Scientists reject this as too risky.

2. By contrast, this scenario proposes that high-income countries don't *need* more growth, and can scale down unnecessary production and consumption. This reduces energy demand (from 140 EJ in 2020 to 40 EJ in 2050), and enables a rapid transition to renewable energy.

3. What does it require? In the global North (Annex 1 countries)
•a shift from private cars to public transportation
•reduction in flights
•smaller average house size

Meanwhile, consumption in the global South (non-Annex 1 countries) rises to converge.


4. Significant reduction of aggregate material use. How? Longer product lifespans; regionalization of production and consumption; ban on advertising; a shift in taxes from labour to resources. All of this allows us to reduce ground freight, which cuts energy use.
SCIENCE
Kevin McKernan
Kevin McKernan
@Kevin_McKernan
When respected Scientists resign over the false narrative... Take notice... and thank them.

Google Translated Letter from

Prof. Dr. Thomas Aigner,
Department of Geosciences,
University of Tuebingen, Sigwartstrasse 10,
D-72076 Tuebingen Germany

Dear colleagues,
It was with the greatest astonishment, deepest concern, and indeed bewilderment, that I took note of the "7th ad hoc statement" from the National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina on December 8th, 2020.
In my opinion, this paper is not worthy of an honest, critical-

weighing science oriented towards the service and well-being of man. I do not have any medical expertise. However, as a scientist committed to nothing but the pure truth, I take the liberty of speaking up. I feel very alarmed by several points:

1. On November 27, 2020, a group of 22 internationally recognized experts presented the following report on the PCR test, the linchpin of the "pandemic", for the Eurosurveillance magazine:

"External peer review of the RTPCR test to detect SARS-CoV-2 reveals 10 major scientific flaws at the molecular and methodological level: consequences for false positive results". Quote: "This highly questions the scientific validity of the test".
SCIENCE
Advertisement
Corey Lynn \U0001f64f\U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8
Corey Lynn 🙏🇺🇸...
@CoreysDigs
1) OBSERVATION: The frequencies are changing. I would have to assess stats on the electromagnetic field to see its fluctuations. All I know is, I am highly sensitive to energy/frequencies, and they are changing, because…

2) 2 Weeks ago, my dog was effected by it as well. He is hearing things that aren’t technically audible. I can tell by his body language and sounds. One week ago I began feeling a pressure in my head and ears. It wasn’t painful at all, but it was intense for a bit.

3) It reminded me of taking off in an airplane a bit. I felt like I was in a vacuum. It went on and off for a couple of days. I’ve picked up on frequencies and high pitched sounds (not audible to most) for 30 years, and today my right ear began to ring for longer than usual.

4) This is nothing unusual for me, with exception of the duration. This happens often with me. No, it’s not tinnitus. Only this time, when I spoke, there was reverb creating a high pitch in my ear from my voice. This lasted for about 30 minutes. It did not hurt, just annoying.

5) So yes, the frequencies are changing. What this means exactly, I am unsure of at the moment. Some will say electromagnetic fields, others will say ascension, and some will say pole shift. I honestly can’t say at this very moment.
SCIENCE
Yardley Yeadon
Yardley Yeadon
@MichaelYeadon3
https://t.co/xvP6tVlIaE
Quite a surprise. Ferguson isn’t qualified to comment on such things. He lacks understanding of basic biological concepts, partly explaining why his predictions are often so extreme.


That said, I’ll take him as an ally. It’s clear we’re already at herd immunity. How can I be sure? London had a huge peak of excess deaths in spring. The timing of peak deaths showed clearly that the pandemic was self-limiting. Recall much debate about whether the interval...

...between lockdown & peak deaths was long enough for lockdown to have been the cause of reducing deaths? The answer was “no”. But it was close & I can understand people thinking “well, it’s close, so perhaps it was lockdown that did it?”, thereby establishing a foundational...

...myth favoured by those who genuinely believe lockdown saves lives (it clearly doesn’t).
I’ll get to London & here immunity. But those wavering about the evidence about lockdown in spring really will benefit from cogitating on this graph.


In blue are the 30 trusts with the earliest date of peak deaths in spring. In red, the 30 with the latest peak deaths. For me, this is proof that national lockdown, which began Mar 23, played no role whatsoever in turning the pandemic. You’ll see some areas had peak daily...
SCIENCE
Michael Wara
Michael Wara
@MichaelWWara
Ever since @JesseJenkins and colleagues work on a zero carbon US and this work by @DrChrisClack and colleagues on incorporating DER, I've been having the following set of thoughts about how to reduce the risk of failure in a US clean energy buildout. Bottom line is much more DER.


Typically, when we see zero-carbon electricity coupled to electrification of transport and buildings, implicitly standing behind that is totally unprecedented buildout of the transmission system. The team from Princeton's modeling work has this in spades for example.

But that, more even than the new generation required, runs straight into a thicket/woodchipper of environmental laws and public objections that currently (and for the last 50y) limit new transmission in the US. We built most transmission prior to the advent of environmental law.

So what these studies are really (implicitly) saying is that NEPA, CEQA, ESA, §404 permitting, eminent domain law, etc, - and the public and democratic objections that drive them - will have to change in order to accommodate the necessary transmission buildout.

I live in a D supermajority state that has, for at least the last 20 years, been in the midst of a housing crisis that creates punishing impacts for people's lives in the here-and-now and is arguably mostly caused by the same issues that create the transmission bottlenecks.
SCIENCE

You May Also Like

Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
Most software founders, particularly in B2B, need to get radically better at sales. @Steli , who is the best person for explaining the scrappy stages in the beginning and then building out a team with scripts and processes, wrote a guide to:

For technical founders it is irrationally, obscenely hard to reverse years of programming (ba dum bum) that sales is a value-destroying activity. Sales is CLEARLY a value-creating activity, contingent on you have a value-creating product.

The world will not drop what they are doing to adopt your work. This is particularly true in B2B, where simply building a better mousetrap won't overcome the activation energy required to get people with additional non-mice problems to prioritize changing mousetraps today.

This is very non-obvious for founders because founders are not often people who *want* to be sold to. We often come from a background where trying out tools is a bit of a fun hobby. We like looking at all the options, making charts, and ripping out partially complete tests.

"This week I unsuccessfully trialed four software options for automating that thing that has been killing us. Our actual production process remains the same as last week. Don't worry; this was a great use of time." is not a thing you want to write in a progress report to manager.
TECH
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
A thing which I unironically and enthusiastically believe which is unpopular among smart people of my acquaintance: financial engineering has in the recent past and present contributed substantially to human welfare. We should hope to see more of it.

Maybe more geeks need to meet someone who says “My job is teleporting value across time and space.”

Financial engineering is sort of a squishy term. I don’t primarily mean payments infrastructure or financial rails, although both of those involve substantial engineering.

I mean more “We took a thing and performed some alchemy, and now have a new thing.”

Except instead of alchemy it is generally quite a bit of math, a huge amount of contract law and due diligence, often an impressive amount of ops work, and a dusting of technology that web devs would recognize as such.
ALL
Advertisement
Anu Satheesh
Anu Satheesh
@AnuSatheesh5
Story of Thumba Poo and Shiva

Thumba poo is a tiny white flower which grows in all areas. These flowers are used for treatment for sinus. Small children who have polyps in Nose are told to crush tumbha leaves and apply in nose part.
There is an interesting story of Thumba and


Mahadeva. Thumba flowers were not taken for Shiva Pooja. Saddened to this Thumba prayed sincerely and Mahadeva appeared before her.
She was surprised that Shiva had appeared before her. Instead of saying that she wants to under his feet always, she said
@SriramKannan77


She said that her feet should be on his head. Shiva accepted her prayers. It is because of this Thumba flower is placed in the head of Shiva Linga.
Shambo Mahadeva
Om Namah Sivaye
🙏🕉🙏
ALL
Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
SIRSI MARIKAMBA DEVI, UTTAR KANNADA DIST. (KAR)
#bharatmandir

Also known as Doddamma (elder sister of all Mariammas). Marikamba of Sirsi is both Mari (terror) as well as Maremma (savior). She is terror in anger & Mother in love. That is why she is called Marikamba.


There was a man by the name of Asadi/ Basava. He used to attend a fair at the neighboring village. Once, he was harassed by some men due to his poor status. So he did not go to the fair. Instead, he stayed in his village Sirsi and prayed to Devi.


One night, he had a dream where Devi Kali informed him about her presence in a tank at his village. When the tank was searched, people found a box with parts of murti. The different parts were assembled together and since then Sirsi Devi became popular in the region.


The kshetram has extremely striking murals in ‘Kaavi’ art. It is an art form of the Konkan region of coastal Karnataka. This stunning art involves creation of patterns in red colour against a white background.
Marikamba rathyatra is one of the biggest Car festivals in Karnataka.
ALL
Learner Vivek Bajaj
Learner Vivek Bajaj
@vivbajaj
My System for momentum trading🧵:

1. Stock Identification:

Daily and Weekly Delivery Analysis using @mystockedge
Theme Confirmation using Internet and Network

2. Stock Confirmation:

Relative Strength of a stock visavis market using RS55 model listed in @mystockedge

1/n

3. Stock Participation:

Only when chart showing short term breakout along with RS55>0 and RSI>50. I am ready to leave some initial movements.

4. Position buildup:

Every time the stock gives a breakout from the previous swing high add more position and go all-in.

2/n

5. Stock Exit:

I run two portfolios: Short term Swing and Long term Swing.

For Exit in Short term swings, I use a 2hourly Chart with super trend and RS. I am using @tradingview for the same.

For long term swing, I exit when the RS of the stock goes below 0. Period.

n/n
SCREENERS , VB , ALL