Cognitive Bias in Forensic Pathology Decisions was published today by Journal of Forensic Sciences

From the abstract “We examined all death certificates issued during a 10-year period in the State of Nevada in the United States for children under the age of six.” /2
We also conducted an experiment with 133 forensic pathologists in which we tested whether knowledge of irrelevant non-medical information that should have no bearing on fo- rensic pathologists’ decisions influenced their manner of death determinations. /3
The dataset of death certificates indicated that forensic pathologists were more likely to rule "homicide" rather than "accident" for deaths of Black children relative to White children. /4
“Participants read a vignette describing a not straightforward or simple case in which a 3.5-year-old child was presented to an ED with diminished vital signs and who died shortly after arrival. /5
In the vignette, the caretaker described finding the toddler unresponsive on the floor of a living room. Postmortem examination determined that the toddler had a skull fracture and subarachnoid hemorrhage of the brain. /6
By random assignment, each pathologist read one of two vi- gnettes, which were identical apart from two pieces of information: some were told that the child was African-American and that the care- taker was the mother's boyfriend /7
whereas the other pathologists were told that that child was White and that the caretaker was the child's grandmother. To be consistent with typical medical information, the race of the child was stated, but the race of the caretaker was not explicitly stated. /8
In the Black condition, pathologists were about 5 times more likely to rule the death as a "homicide" rather than an "accident" (35.4% vs. 6.2%), but in the White condition, the results were the opposite: /9
A dataset of death certificates in NV revealed that Black children, relative to White children, were more often judged as victims of homicides rather than accidents. /10
The experimental data, along with the death certificate data, taken together, show that even highly trained professional scientists can be biased in their decisions. /11

More from Science

@mugecevik is an excellent scientist and a responsible professional. She likely read the paper more carefully than most. She grasped some of its strengths and weaknesses that are not apparent from a cursory glance. Below, I will mention a few points some may have missed.
1/


The paper does NOT evaluate the effect of school closures. Instead it conflates all ‘educational settings' into a single category, which includes universities.
2/

The paper primarily evaluates data from March and April 2020. The article is not particularly clear about this limitation, but the information can be found in the hefty supplementary material.
3/


The authors applied four different regression methods (some fancier than others) to the same data. The outcomes of the different regression models are correlated (enough to reach statistical significance), but they vary a lot. (heat map on the right below).
4/


The effect of individual interventions is extremely difficult to disentangle as the authors stress themselves. There is a very large number of interventions considered and the model was run on 49 countries and 26 US States (and not >200 countries).
5/

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I hate when I learn something new (to me) & stunning about the Jeff Epstein network (h/t MoodyKnowsNada.)

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So our new Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's stepfather, Samuel Pisar, was "longtime lawyer and confidant of...Robert Maxwell," Ghislaine Maxwell's Dad.


"Pisar was one of the last people to speak to Maxwell, by phone, probably an hour before the chairman of Mirror Group Newspapers fell off his luxury yacht the Lady Ghislaine on 5 November, 1991."
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