1) Hello friends, how are you? My feed is a bullish sea. It's a festive time of year. Crypto has entered a bull market and people are making money left and right.

But what I'm writing about is not pleasant.

2) For every success story, there are ten failures. We don't always hear about them, nor do we want to. All too often are they swept under the rug.

I write about something disappointing and sad that has happened to one of my friends.

3) In an unregulated industry, standards govern - but it's the individuals's duty to keep himself safe out there. This is a story of starving humans who ate each other and then the dog. It is my hope that this thread will offer a word of caution to any who may need it.

4) A little more than two months ago, two anon friends of mine, sabotagebeats and Quantadelic - longtime friends with each other - started a #DeFi project by the name of Food Pyramid. Striking and bold,

5) FOOD began as an honest pyramid scheme - if there ever was one. 300 $ETH was raised in 10 minutes, stunningly. The founders were elated. Quantadelic could finally pay his rent and get a decent meal. They went out for pizza. It was the perfect success story.

1/ We often misunderstand new technologies because they don’t neatly fit into to our world…yet

They enable us to do things we previously couldn't.
They change our behaviour.

#Bitcoin is one such example.

And looking at how it’s currently used gives us a peek into our future.

2/ INFLATION HEDGE:

"Bitcoin’s ultra-orthodox monetary policy of targeting a fixed money supply, is the ideal hedge for fiat money printing."
- @pierre_rochard

3/ MONETIZATION OF STRANDED ENERGY:

“If your local energy cost is effectively zero but you cannot sell your energy anywhere, the existence of a global buyer for energy is a godsend.”
- @nic__carter

4/ UNCORRELATED ALPHA:

"One reason the interest in #bitcoin from Wall St as well as pensions and endowments is this is uncorrelated alpha, this is the holy grail of investing.”
- @Sonnenshein

5/ MICROPAYMENTS:

"Bitcoin uniquely has a native unit of account called a "sat" that currently represents 1/100 of a cent (while BTC is $10k). The brand of "sats" ...could already be the most recognizable global unit of account to represent value <1cent."
- @cuysheffield

Dear #Bitcoin & crypto tribe,

Here are some lessons from @arrington on @nakamoto which are particularly timely and poignant for we continue our good fight for crypto adoption in 2021.

This is just the beginning.

We (the Innovators and Early Adopters) laying the groundwork for the revolution probably aren't even aware of how big our ideas get.

Crypto Winter is over. Spring is coming.

/2

What is our fight?

Fiat = misery and quiet thieft via inflation
Bitcoin and crypto = freedom and happiness

This is the fight. Right now, this sounds insane to 99% of people.

/3

We can go on and on about #bitcoin and crypto and we should! But just like the Internet in 1995, remember that it will take years for smart people to the power of crypto currencies and we need to help them along the way.

/4

The way we as a "crypto community" discuss crypto on Twitter today drive away newcomers. They flee as fast as they can because of the hate, nastiness and intolerance we spread among ourselves. This is NOT ok and cannot continue.

/5

On Dec 18th, FinCEN announced a proposed rule that will require collection of personal information for transactions of >$3,000 sent to self-hosted wallets.
https://t.co/h1GT64oOqo

We are very concerned about this proposal @OKCoin.

Key takeaways below:

1/ The results seem to be pre-determined.

Transparency and full public participation is needed for sound policy making on complex topics like this. However, with a shortened 15d window (holiday included) vs standard 60d, we are not getting a genuine opportunity to participate.

2/ Cyber-crime is not unique to crypto. An FBI report in June said that daily digital crime has risen 75% since March.

No evidence indicates that illicit crypto activity has risen disproportionally to threaten national security that warrants such a rush.

3/ A unique nature of #bitcoin is to transmit value without intermediary.

This is revolutionary in human history and will greatly promote financial inclusion and freedom. It would also lead to innovations and paradigm shifts that we cannot imagine today.

4/ This is the “responsible innovation” that sound policy making is supposed to protect.

It is also very nascent that needs very careful and thoughtful policy-making.

Bitcoin has no role in institutional or retail investors portfolios. It is not a currency: not an unit of account, not a scalable means of payment & is a highly volatile store of value. It is heavily manipulated: look at the investigation of  Bitfinex by US law enforcement. 1/n

See also the academic evidence that Tether is used to manipulate the Bitcoin market. And look at the recent indictment of BitMex and his criminal CEO & gang. It has no intrinsic value, it is not backed by any asset, it is not legal tender, it cannot be used to pay taxes. 2/n

Almost no merchant uses Bitcoin as its price volatility leads to market risk that any profit margin is wiped out before u can convert it back into fiat. Not scalable means of payments. It's toxic for the environment as POS hogs enormous amounts of energy & pollutes the earth. 3/n

Bitcoin is not an asset as it has ZERO intrinsic value. Assets do either provide an income or capital gains or utility or real use of some sort. Stocks, bonds, real estate, other assets provide both income (dividends, interest, rent) & capital gains & housing services for RE; 4/n

Gold/silver dont provide income but give capital gains, utility (jewelry) & used in industry.  BTC doesn't give income, has no other utility services (such as unit of account or means of payments) & provides only capital gains (or losses) based purely on speculative motives. 5/n

🔸FUD
🔸FOMO
🔸HODL
🔸BUIDL
🔸SAFU
🔸ROI
🔸ATH
🔸ATL
🔸DYOR
🔸DD
🔸AML
🔸KYC

Ever seen one of these abbreviations and wondered what it

I should be clear here. Yes, we've made fortunes on BTC. But BTC was coopted years ago. Now the CIA/deep state/Wall St people are getting into it because it has gotten the nod from the Rothschilds. At some point we will all sell for Monero and they are all fucked. ;)

It'll be somewhere around $300k that we bring the hammer down on them.

I've concluded that the real problem is that bitcoiners don't understand basic microeconomics. So here's a bit of a primer. 1/

Scarcity is a function of demand, and it affects price. For any good, if demand exceeds supply, it is scarce. That is true regardless of the absolute number of units of the good available for purchase. 2/

Imagine there are 5m Steinway grand pianos in the world, of which 1m are available for purchase. The world's population is about 8bn. So if everyone in the world wanted a Steinway grand piano, they would by any reasonable definition be extremely scarce. 3/

And because of their scarcity, competition for them would drive up their price. Steinway grand pianos would be very expensive things (as indeed they really are) 4/

Bitcoiners will no doubt have followed this so far, because this is their scarcity economics: there can only be 21m bitcoins, therefore only a tiny fraction of the world population can own bitcoin, therefore bitcoin will be very, very expensive. 5/

For the sake of a public record, I would like to lay out my prediction for how this next #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto bull market plays out...

@RaoulGMI @PrestonPysh @AriDavidPaul

Bitcoin will top out somewhere between $200k and $300k.

I am not of the belief that this is going to be the "final cycle" where BTC soaks up the world's wealth, goes to $1 million and rewrites financial history. I do not think...

That Bitcoin is headed permanently to the moon on this go round. After this cycle peaks I would expect a 60 to 80% retrace.

The macro narrative is taking shape that BTC is a hedge against inflation, however...

I don't think we're actually going to get the inflation everyone expects.

In order to get secular, painful, obvious inflation I think that several things need to happen. We need a more accommodating government (MMT) which we don't...

Have yet, as evidenced by Mitch blocking the $2k stimulus.

At this point we don't have the system necessary to fire the fiscal bazookas fast enough to overcome the forces of deflation.

I think that we'll get a MMT government eventually, but it could take several years...

1/9 In 2019 I checked out Craig Wrights claim that in 2008 he had installed a fibre link between his rural property (ranch) in Bagnoo/Byabarra to the local exchange.

This claim was proven false
A few days ago I revisited this claim and dug much deeper - the story is still false

2/9 Craig claimed that due to his initiative he opened up a rural town to high speed internet and approx 50,000 people benefited 🙃

The Byabarra exchange is tiny and in 2009 didn't service many properties, maybe a hundred or so

Craig must think we are clowns 🤡

3/9 Craig also said he had racks of PC's set up in his shed at his ranch to support the Bitcoin network in the early stages of 2009. The high speed Fibre internet link was an integral part of this.

Why on earth would you need all that to support the Bitcoin network 2009? 👎

4/9 I found photos of his shed online as the property was being sold at one point, just looked like a normal shed with lots of tools. It was a metal shed, no insulation, no cooling, so not a great place to host PC's mining Bitcoins

Aussie sun + metal shed = very hot PC's 🔥

5/9 So I checked the facts and found the claim about having fibre to the home was total nonsense.

I did this by phoning a local business, also the NBN co, Optus, Telstra and I spoke to real estate agents and 2 key people in the local area.

Nope, no fibre then, no fibre now

1/ Crypto’s biggest potential impact to society is in sustainably distributing wealth, capital & ownership to a larger % of the world.

This is also its biggest risk: crypto can exacerbate inequality if it is not made accessible to everyone—especially those who need it most.

2/ Inequality is growing to unsustainable levels comparable to that in the early 1900s prior to WWI & the 1700s prior to the French Revolution & sweeping changes throughout Europe.

The top 1% (~80M people) now owns the same amount of capital as the remaining 99% (~7.9B people).

3/ Historically, there are only two solutions to extreme levels of inequality:

1. Revolution: Violence or war that leads to wealth redistribution to those who fought & won

2. Intervention: Political change that raises taxes on the rich & increases benefits to the poor

4/ But is there another way? One that doesn’t require war or heavy government oversight?

Is another option even possible when the system, power, rules, governance, capital, tech, etc. are centralized among the 1%, as they have been for millennia?

Historically, the answer is no.

5/ Today’s society also faces something new that no other generation has: global technologies that have further centralized power and wealth, as well as automated work and reduced demand for labor, particularly among the middle class.

Tech is accelerating inequality.

Today a new bitcoiner was born.

How and which information triggered his change of mind?

...... A super small thread. 👇👇👇

A family member who bought a bit in the end 2017, right in the top and saw its portfolio basically dissolve rather quickly than slowly.

He basically dismissed the idea that bitcoin had value, and believed that every #bitcoin -er was in a cult.

I asked him to give it a chance

Just listen to these two podcasts:

1. Bitcoin is Hope
with @johnkvallis and @michael_saylor

2. Bitcoin in a Deflationary World
with @PrestonPysh and @JeffBooth

And finally read this little article:
"Why the Yuppie Elite Dismiss Bitcoin"
by @Croesus_BTC

As a context, he had an inclination to socialism as he is not from a wealthy family and did his Masters Program in an Ivy League university.. so he is fully indebted.

He gave it a chance, and I wake up to an SMS.

"Ok, I bought bitcoin, wont ever make fun of that again."

I asked him: "What changed your mind?"

He said:
"I am convinced. I must accept that part of me wants to trust that the currently monetary system won't fail. It is not easy to accept that the USD will devaluate to oblivion."

"I loved @PrestonPysh's pod, I will cont. learning"

#Bitcoin has never taken any money from anybody. Every person in the world that bought #BTC and did not sell or lose it has made money. I mean hard money too. The only ones that lost either sold it or lost it. What’s the lesson?

The simple answer is #HODL don’t sell and secure it, but not many have done that #. Why? Here is what I learnt from being involved in #Bitcoin for over a decade.

1. You need to overcome the emotions of fear and greed which is hard wired into the human psychology. Not so easy.

2. You need to resist the urge to trade when everybody is telling you #Bitcoin is going to be killed by another competitor or it’s a scam or it’s a Ponzi scheme or it’s just for drug dealers or it’s a dinosaur compared to other crypto or it’s going to get banned or etc. etc. etc.

3. You need to learn how to become your own bank that requires learning a new skill that became easier over time, but was very hard in the early days. Securing your own wealth without a bank gives you freedom, but new problems to solve.

1. Congrats to the @opyn_ team for launching V2 - very exciting! I’m happy that the new V2 dashboard has a clean layout with greeks and implied vols for each respective option. It’s also a pleasant surprise to see the prices are closely in line with @DeribitExchange's options.

2. Many folks in this space use options to make directional bets on the underlying price of an asset ie: if we’re bullish or bearish we can buy a call or put respectively. Things get interesting when we move beyond simply trading the direction of where BTC or ETH is going...

3. Unlike futures, with options we can make bets on the underlying volatility of an asset. This style of trading is commonly referred to as “vol trading” which is a slightly more advanced strategy used by sophisticated retail traders and institutions such as @ledger_prime.

4. Below are a few key terms we need to understand as vol traders:
- Realized Volatility
- Implied Volatility
- Delta

5. Realized volatility (a): the historical volatility of the underlying asset throughout the life of the option. This volatility is measured during a given time period - ie: volatility over a 30 day period. Below is a plot of realized ETH vol from @GenesisVol data.

1/3

No one has called the entire crypto market cap hitting an all-time high, I think it is time to call it.

Total crypto market cap is now over $750B. In 2018 market cap briefly eclipsed $800B, but BTC dominance was below 35%, the market was illiquid garbage.

2/4

On January 7th 20118 - the proclaimed market cap ATH, Bitconnect had a market cap of $2.3B and Dentacoin $1.8B (and was up 930% on the week, lol). Coins like Ardor had market caps of $1.8B with $5M in daily volume. Bitcoin Gold was at $5B mcap

These assets were not liquid

3/4

I mean look at this garbage, New York Coin at $125M market cap on $4M volume and Electra $176M market cap on $45K volume.

4/4

Today Bitcoin's market cap dominance is sitting around 70% on tens of billions in daily trading volume, and total crypto market cap is at $750B. While garbage remains, much has been wiped out and the market is starting to mature.

This is the new all-time high for crypto.

A personal update: Monday was my last day at Business Standard and I can truly count the past 3 years as the golden phase of my career, where I got the opportunity to not only report but also break some of the biggest news stories during this period.

From January, I will be writing for the @BloombergQuint.

Even though I will miss the adrenaline rush of finding my byline in the paper every morning, I am really excited about starting a new journey with a digital platform.

In this thread, I am sharing some of the work that I did at @bsindia, which is close to my heart.

I wrote a series of stories with @dilasha on how the cryptocurrency players in India are surviving in a hostile regulatory

In Feb 2018, I exposed how the government secretly commissioned a survey to two independent economists, giving them unauthorised access to private data of citizens only to establish ‘robust’ job

What will it actually take for BSV to succeed?

One big thing, or many small things.

No other 'cryptocurrency' is scaling in a way that will actually work. They're adding friction, barriers to entry, and narratives and narratives and narratives.

As a result, they *can't* compete when BSV achieves higher usage than they can support.

This is a two sided issue.

First, BSV must be able to scale. So far, it looks like the software can handle scale pretty nicely, and folks are working on further improving it.

Second, people must actually use BSV. Adoption. This also drives miners to scale, too.

So, what will it take for BSV to succeed?

One big thing, or many small things... Using BSV to work.

See, if we get one large volume business sustainably using BSV, or many small volume businesses doing so, BSV wins.

The dynamics of mining shift entirely in BSV's favor as soon as this happens.

The "costly revenue" will arise on BSV, so only miners who work will earn it, while the "cheap revenue" will remain on BTC/BCH.

BSV miners will earn both cheap and costly revenue.