1/ We often misunderstand new technologies because they don’t neatly fit into to our world…yet

They enable us to do things we previously couldn't.
They change our behaviour.

#Bitcoin is one such example.

And looking at how it’s currently used gives us a peek into our future.

2/ INFLATION HEDGE:

"Bitcoin’s ultra-orthodox monetary policy of targeting a fixed money supply, is the ideal hedge for fiat money printing."
- @pierre_rochard
3/ MONETIZATION OF STRANDED ENERGY:

“If your local energy cost is effectively zero but you cannot sell your energy anywhere, the existence of a global buyer for energy is a godsend.”
- @nic__carter
4/ UNCORRELATED ALPHA:

"One reason the interest in #bitcoin from Wall St as well as pensions and endowments is this is uncorrelated alpha, this is the holy grail of investing.”
- @Sonnenshein
5/ MICROPAYMENTS:

"Bitcoin uniquely has a native unit of account called a "sat" that currently represents 1/100 of a cent (while BTC is $10k). The brand of "sats" ...could already be the most recognizable global unit of account to represent value <1cent."
- @cuysheffield
6/ HIGH-VALUE SETTLEMENT:

"Its network can offer final settlement of large volume payments within minutes. #Bitcoin can thus best be compared to settlement payments between central banks & large financial institutions ... [but] infinitely cheaper & more verifiable."
- @saifedean
7/ DETECT MARKET DISTORTIONS:

"Bitcoin can approximate unofficial exchange rates which, in turn, can be used to detect both the existence and the magnitude of the distortion caused by capital controls & exchange rate manipulations."
- @ProfPieters
8/ CAPITAL FLIGHT:

”We are approaching a bankruptcy event in the developed economies, both in banks and governments...#Bitcoin, as a discrete and non-confiscatable currency, will benefit greatly from the capital flight that will ensue.”
- @TuurDemeester
9/ A CALL OPTION ON THE FUTURE:

"#Bitcoin is the call option on the future system...It is nothing short of the future of our entire medium of exchange system, and of money and the platform on which it operates."

-@RaoulGMI
10/ WEALTH STORAGE:

"...may sound like a strange libertarian or anarchist perspective if you’ve grown up in a stable country.
With all of the crazy things going on in the world, the demand for censorship-resistant wealth storage is high & growing."

-@TaylorPearsonMe
11/LIQUID ALTERNATIVE TO PHYSICAL SoV ASSETS:

“Classic paintings & vintage vehicles rarely trade in secondary markets and consequently, have poor price discovery... Bitcoin’s liquidity is valuable to users in that they can quickly acquire and dispose of [it].”

-@CremeDeLaCrypto
12/ COLLATERAL

"Bitcoin may be the most perfect and reliable collateral the world has ever known. When things get serious, informed players will demand it. Given the prevalence of re-hypothecation and other money games, this may be the only way to be sure."

- @TheRealPaulRB
13/ LOYALTY/REWARDS PROGRAMS

"There's a whole group of customers that are already invested in bitcoin that want more of it. They'd rather earn bitcoin back instead of cashback. [It's] a whole new market."

-@alexadelman (CEO, Lolli)
14/ TREASURY RESERVE ASSET

"Given the challenge of how to invest $600 million in treasury reserves, after a lifetime of experience & months of analysis, I decided on an allocation of 100% #Bitcoin, 0% Bonds, 0% Stocks, 0% Real Estate, 0% Gold."

-@michael_saylor

More from Crypto

So the cryptocurrency industry has basically two products, one which is relatively benign and doesn't have product market fit, and one which is malignant and does. The industry has a weird superposition of understanding this fact and (strategically?) not understanding it.


The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.

This product has narrow appeal and, accordingly, is worth about as much as everything else on a 486 sitting in someone's basement is worth.

The other product is investment scams, which have approximately the best product market fit of anything produced by humans. In no age, in no country, in no city, at no level of sophistication do people consistently say "Actually I would prefer not to get money for nothing."

This product needs the exchanges like they need oxygen, because the value of it is directly tied to having payment rails to move real currency into the ecosystem and some jurisdictional and regulatory legerdemain to stay one step ahead of the banhammer.
You may be wondering why @bristoliver rather cryptically RT’d a chart that I posted last night. The answer is not just that he loves quadratic fits on log axes, but that this chart may –and I stress may– hint at a vaccine effect amongst the over 80s THREAD


WARNING: this is a long thread, and it’s a bit of a roller-coaster. We find some apparently strong patterns in the data, and then start to unpick them a bit. So if you start getting excited half way through you might find you’re less excited at the end. But we’ll see…

First we first have to go back a bit. @bristoliver posted a thread a few days ago explaining why, with a constant vaccination rate, a log plot of cases should show a quadratic form. In other words, it should fit an equation like: a + b.x + c.x^2

I meant to link in the model thread there - here it is


the quadratic coefficient – the ‘c’ in that equation – gives an estimate of the % of the population who are being newly protected by the vaccine each day. Please note ‘protected by the vaccine’, not ‘vaccinated’ – as we don't expect 100% protection after the first dose

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