✨ Today, I started my ８ＴＨ ＹＥＡＲ working full-time in #Bitcoin.

I've been a journalist, I've worked at a global exchange and I've spent thousands of hours down the rabbit hole.

If you're just starting out, here are the lessons I'd pass along 🧵

#Bitcoin weekly RSI is at the same level as it was during the March'20 crash.

Two possibilities:

1) Reversal
2) Crash to test the lower bound of the channel or even lower, as most of the crashes are preceded by oversold readings.

As of now, 2 has a higher probability.

1/ Thread explains the rationale for $GBTC over #bitcoin. (Speaking from experience, but not necessarily an endorsement of GBTC):

2/ $GBTC fills a need and is designed to permit exposure to #bitcoin for professional, registered investment advisors in the US. Money managers have unique circumstances compared to individual investors.

3/ #Imagine you are an investment mgr with 250 client accounts (an average-sized separate account manager would have 400). Owning #bitcoin means setting up another 250 accounts - major work with not a lot of reward. If you want to rebalance (stocks/bonds/bitcoin)...

4/ you have 250 transfers to make. Doubles admin workload, makes operational life very complicated. Lots of work for a 5-10% allocation (or less!) to $BTC.

5/ Client reporting is a nightmare. 2 sets of custodian statements not easily combined... A typical client already has 3 accounts, now it is 6 accounts & 6 statements, and there are few software feeds to consolidate data from #crypto exchanges into traditional portfolio reports.

Here’s my thoughts with BTC lending as this cycle heats up. During the previous cycle we saw BTC prices jump from 10,000 to 20,000 in 16 days. This means that if the borrower overcollateralized with an LTV of 50%, their escrow will be liquidated (unless margin is met)...1/

within half a month. Now, what happens if this cycle produces growth that keeps running at double the price action in another 16 days from there? Well, it means those that just met the previous margin calls, now only have 4 days to respond to the next. So what does 2/

this mean for spreads? It means borrowers start to disappear from the market...which also means the spreads in the derivative market don’t get market makers to service the short-side of the trade. For lending/borrowing platforms that are completely overcollateralized, there 3/

shouldn’t be any problems for the depositors, but if lending/borrowing platforms are cutting corners for some of their borrowers (and they aren’t overcollateralized), the borrowers ability to meet margin calls due to counter-party risks in other parts of their portfolio mix ...4/

could cause systematic risk for all participants of the borrowing/lending platform. This is why transparency on borrowing/lending platforms are paramount to long-term trust and growth in the industry. I suspect the risk to lending/borrowing platforms is actually....5/