1/ outlook for bitcoin: positive 🚀

in this thread, i'll quickly outline key data points on #bitcoin sentiment, demand, market structure, and macro conditions

disclosure: i own BTC, obvi. this is not investment advice. DYOR. further disclosures at

2/ let's start w sentiment ☺️

first, investor sentiment:
@blackrock filed to add BTC to 2 funds, CIO has 400k price target
@RayDalio's Bridgewater reportedly issuing BTC research report
✅JPM, Goldman, and other bulge brackets initiated research coverage
3/ next, trader sentiment:

🚨 most important indicator is the forward curve

normally BTC futures trade in backwardation after a price drop.

this time, the curve stayed in contango following drop, meaning market makers are bullish 🐂📈 despite funding rate increase!
4/ sentiment drives demand. so DEMAND next.

💸 let's talk fund flows

🤑 our research shows $359M of inflows into crypto products last week alone (https://t.co/6Kky96m3ob)
🤑 our @CoinSharesCo @xbtprovider ETPs saw $200M trading volume on jan 4

https://t.co/8prtUF1Xxv
4/ let's talk bitcoin fundamentals

post-halving, 900 BTC mined per day, 312,000 this year.

👀 47M millionaires. 21M bitcoin.

🏆 collectibles selling at all time highs. bitcoin is the ultimate collector's item. (see https://t.co/EaxpRwWe3Y)
5/ next, market structure (my fave)

@CoinSharesCo traded >$1.5B in first two weeks of 2021. have never seen this level of participation.

spot volumes skyrocketing - BTC/USD trade pair volume has ~7x'ed since August, institutions instead of crypto native firms (who use USDT)
6/ biggest market structure shift?

🕐 trading hours shifting from asia dominance to UK / US hours activity
💱 trade pair dominance shifting from USDT to USD
🚀 open interest (OI) on @CMEGroup bitcoin derivs >$1B, break new high

1 + 2 via @KaikoData -https://t.co/RiYNMEP1h1
7/ lastly, macro, cuz BTC doesn't exist in a vacuum and everything is relative

🖨️ dems + yellen to print print print - $2.5T stimmy

⚠️ unprecedented levels of chaos, mass-scale institutional failure all around

*bitcoin is an antidote to dysfunction*

https://t.co/dJLx6I1vFS
8/ hopefully that provides perspective into how our team @CoinSharesCo thinks and works.

no price targets. no timelines. we use empirical evidence to build an actionable outlook.

being a #bitcoin bull is great. being a bitcoin bull who brings receipts is even better.

/ fin

More from Bitcoin

I will be a buyer under 13800 levels, but depending upon the reversal on smaller timeframe.
Another #FreeLoveFriday. So far, I’ve covered Bitcoin, Mastercoin/Omni, and last week ChainLink and the importance of decentralized oracles. Today, let’s talk about one of the most fascinating projects in crypto - @MakerDAO


In my thread about Mastercoin, I briefly touched on the vital role fiat-backed stablecoins play in crypto markets, but there’s a catch with them:

The counterparty risk of a third-party holding fiat in reserves.

Enter MakerDAO, which set out to create a decentralized, collateral-backed cryptocurrency, DAI, that would be “soft-pegged” to the U.S. Dollar using the power of algorithms. In crypto tradition, its supporters said trust game theory, not operators.

In 2017, MakerDAO published a whitepaper describing a system where anyone could create DAI by leveraging ETH as collateral to create Collateralized Debt Positions. Essentially, you take out a digital USD loan against your crypto.

The game theory of the system is structured such that DAI issuance is controlled to keep the price pegged to $1.00. In essence, it buffers the fluctuations of the underlying collateral to create a synthetic dollar bill.

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