2/ let's start w sentiment ☺️
first, investor sentiment:
✅
@blackrock filed to add BTC to 2 funds, CIO has 400k price target
✅
@RayDalio's Bridgewater reportedly issuing BTC research report
✅JPM, Goldman, and other bulge brackets initiated research coverage
3/ next, trader sentiment:
🚨 most important indicator is the forward curve
normally BTC futures trade in backwardation after a price drop.
this time, the curve stayed in contango following drop, meaning market makers are bullish 🐂📈 despite funding rate increase!
4/ sentiment drives demand. so DEMAND next.
💸 let's talk fund flows
🤑 our research shows $359M of inflows into crypto products last week alone (
https://t.co/6Kky96m3ob)
🤑 our
@CoinSharesCo @xbtprovider ETPs saw $200M trading volume on jan 4
https://t.co/8prtUF1Xxv
4/ let's talk bitcoin fundamentals
post-halving, 900 BTC mined per day, 312,000 this year.
👀 47M millionaires. 21M bitcoin.
🏆 collectibles selling at all time highs. bitcoin is the ultimate collector's item. (see
https://t.co/EaxpRwWe3Y)
5/ next, market structure (my fave)
@CoinSharesCo traded >$1.5B in first two weeks of 2021. have never seen this level of participation.
spot volumes skyrocketing - BTC/USD trade pair volume has ~7x'ed since August, institutions instead of crypto native firms (who use USDT)
6/ biggest market structure shift?
🕐 trading hours shifting from asia dominance to UK / US hours activity
💱 trade pair dominance shifting from USDT to USD
🚀 open interest (OI) on
@CMEGroup bitcoin derivs >$1B, break new high
1 + 2 via
@KaikoData -https://t.co/RiYNMEP1h1
7/ lastly, macro, cuz BTC doesn't exist in a vacuum and everything is relative
🖨️ dems + yellen to print print print - $2.5T stimmy
⚠️ unprecedented levels of chaos, mass-scale institutional failure all around
*bitcoin is an antidote to dysfunction*
https://t.co/dJLx6I1vFS
8/ hopefully that provides perspective into how our team
@CoinSharesCo thinks and works.
no price targets. no timelines. we use empirical evidence to build an actionable outlook.
being a #bitcoin bull is great. being a bitcoin bull who brings receipts is even better.
/ fin