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An extremely important point that seems to be completely missed in the discussion of disinformation.

We are exclusively focused on the *supply chain*. We neglect the *demand* for this content.

The truth is that people searched for an excuse, or opening, to be radicalized.


I find the comparison to drugs and addiction helpful here, and it is one that I do carefully.

100 people to to the doctor and get an opioid after a procedure. About 95 will never use again.

A lot of us are exposed to extremist content. Most of us don’t get radicalized.

So while the supply and exposure played a role in both addiction and radicalization, it is not magic. It doesn’t just take over people. It taps into demand.

So maybe the question is less about how they got the supply and more why they find it so appealing.

That’s tougher.

It is much easier to imagine an immediate policy solution to Trump’s twitter account or YouTube’s auto play than to the coercive impact of 401 years of America apartheid and racist myth making.

But again drugs suggest that those quick supply cuts don’t work.

A century of drug busts made the problem worse. This observation led to the iron law of prohibition: the harder the enforcement, the harder the drugs.

When you cut supply, people who want drugs *will* find drugs — and often more dangerous drugs.

This is where my insight ends.
I've had a lot of positive comments on this theory, and some helpful challenges. The most common of which was: surely a single-day effect wouldn't be big enough to cause the 'twist' in the data that we're seeing in those age groups? So I set out to find out if it was (thread)


This is one of those university / job interview 'order of magnitude' estimation problems. So feel free to disagree with any or all steps on my logic chain, and please explain why - it will help improve / refine (or falsify) the analysis.

So let's focus on the primary-school-age kids as that's where the effect is strongest. We have 3.5m 5-9 year-olds in England. I don't know how many were in school on 4th Jan - we know some regions (London / Kent etc.) didn't go back, and a lot of schools had INSET days etc

So I'm going to make a wild guess and say 40% were in school on that day. Better ideas (particularly if backed by data) very welcome. So that's about 1.4m children in school

Now ONS tells us that about 1.5% of that age group would test positive for coronavirus in early January. So that's about 20,000 kids with the virus heading into school.
1/ What is Right Privilege? Walking around so embedded in your own delusion that you know:

- If you shout "law & order" loud enough, the law is what you say it is
- Cops are on your side, before they're enemies
- The hotel bar is relaxing after the insurrection

#rightprivilege


2/ You know:

- Society blowback for your terrorism is just more repression
- Socialism is hell, but tech platforms should be socialized
- Supporting others' needs is just socialism
- But California subsidizing Oklahoma is federalism

#rightprivilege

3/ You know:

- You're ultra-conservative, so stoking civil war isn't radical
- Camo Chic is cool
- No-Fly Lists only apply to brown people who speak Arabic
- Violence will secure your cause by taking back what's yours
- Terrorists can't be white

#rightprivilege

4/ You know:

- Too much about what you think are your rights from society
- Too little about your responsibilities to society
- A lot about a vague specter of socialism you're afraid of, but can't name any specific ways you've ever been truly oppressed

#rightprivilege

5/ You know:

- A strongman can save you if everyone just give him enough power
- Weakness makes you look like a lib
- Kap dishonors the American flag, but a Trump and confederate flag in the Capitol doesn't

#rightprivilege
280121 #KAI SM Super Idol League Huya Broadcast Real-Time Trans by EXOUpdates_Subs 🐻❤️
@weareoneEXO #EXO #카이

started the thread since they started the bc~ link is:
https://t.co/1Cq8MgZgzU… ☺️

Today’s BC title is “KAI starlight and me are going to accompany you left and right”


Kai: Yay~ This the 2nd bc of SIL! Hello everyone I am KAI! Let’s put on some hand sanitiser~ How has everyone been during the past 1 week? (For me,) I’ve grown less nervous in playing, it’s alr the 2nd season! ... Today I must win, and say ‘gongxi’!

@weareoneEXO #EXO  #카이

Kai: Last bc I always wished others gongxi, this bc i must wish myself gongxi as well~ Hm, how do we play this bc? Let’s look at the comments!

@weareoneEXO #EXO  #카이
🧵 The conversation surrounding this is confused in ways that really backfire. For example, you often hear that the Founders more or less "wanted gridlock to be the norm," for it to be "hard to get anything done," to guard against radical change.


Naturally, this tends to lessen the public's respect for the whole system. It doesn't sound very attractive, or at least sounds like a particularly inefficient way of guarding against radical change. "They wanted to force compromise," is better, but also backfires.

It confuses the public into being mad that everyone "can't just get a long and compromise," like it's a matter of personal attitudes and conflict is a sign something is wrong. A more invigorating and accurate framing:


We've basically inverted this framing into something very demoralizing. "Congress isn't supposed to do anything," rather than "Congress is gunning for a showdown." And we're so confused that one of the impeachment charges against Trump was "Obstruction of Congress."


The point is that the branches were supposed to be actively tactical, and were given a set of tools to use against each other. Not "do nothing."