1/29 #Bitcoin thread, updated version

We’ve doubled since the last time I updated this thread, so I thought it would be of some value to update it. Feeling insecure about price action? Too enthusiastic/scared? Maybe this helps a bit, go check it out!

TLDR at 27-29
Let’s go!🔥

2/ 2 Year MA Multiplier
This indicator uses the 2Y MA. Green line is the 2Y MA, red is the same MA x5

2ya MA multiplier is rising and at ~48k rn. Price goes parabolic. I would personally love to get a decent correction, would give more space for growth long term imho.

3/ Relative Unrealized P/L
Paper p/l in $Btc. Use it to track investor sentiment.
Market is overheating, everybody is in paper profits, but as you can see “we” as a whole take too less profit. We can stay around greed for a whole year, but a correction at this point makes sense

4/ 200 Week MA Heatmap
#Bitcoin likes to bottom out near the 200W MA
Colors are attached to % increase of MA
Blue/purple = Buying opportunity
Orange/red = TP opportunity
The bigger the distraction, the more parabolic price goes, simply said
First green coming(?) Room for growth

5/ MVRV Z-score.
To identify periods when $Btc is extremely under/overvalued.

Green= MV unusually far below RV, buying opp
Red=MV unusually high above RV, TP opp.

Now: heating up. Correction first to cool it off plz :)
Nice uptick in realized value.

The latest sex abuse scandal to rock France seems to be reinforcing one important thing: French public opinion reaction to stories of sexual abuse is changing in significant ways. (A

I noticed it first about ten years ago, some years before the #metoo movement, when rape allegations were made against then IMF-Director Dominique Strauss-Khan.

When the head of a major French publishing house Vanessa Springora wrote about being groomed and abused as a teen by feted French novelist Gabriel Matzneff, it caused revulsion and soul-searching throughout the country. (Read her fantastic book “Consent”)

1/ What Happens with More Funds than Stocks? (Madhavan, Sobczyk, Ang)

"Funds differ meaningfully in terms of individual stock holdings, and we examine the factor exposures of the typical fund and the cross section of holdings of different funds."

https://t.co/d6vU4Fgszg

2/ * Data on fund holdings are from Morningstar
* Sample: Jan. 1, 2007 to Dec. 31, 2018
* Only funds with at least 80% of holdings from the Russell 3000 universe are considered
* Mean AUM-weighted expense ratio for mutual funds (ETFs) is 70 bps (14.2 bps) as of Q4 2018

3/ "The holdings of ETFs and active mutual funds across U.S. stocks can be efficiently summarized by approximately 10 canonical funds.

"There is more commonality explained by the first few canonical funds for active mutual funds than for ETFs."

4/ "Commonality among equity mutual funds has remained approximately constant, but there has been increased dispersion in ETF offerings.

"We see no apparent rise in concentration or crowding for mutual funds over the period from January 2007 to December 2018."

5/ "We examine commonality in active mutual funds in Morningstar style box categories. While Value and Blend commonality has remained roughly constant over the period 2007-2018, Growth funds have exhibited a marked increase in crowded positions."

Important information I’ve gathered since getting into 17. Feel free to copy & paste this information to your notes before I’m banned :)

Hillary’s crime against children (pg 294): https://t.co/Otrs9yTQNy

B_M & aunteefa riot index- 6,111 riot videos:

Trump's border record: A brief, incomplete history w. links and numbers. Thread -->

1) Border wall construction. CBP recently touted over 400 miles of construction. Only 80 miles is actually new wall, but the construction has nonetheless caused great harm to native lands and cultural sites, to the environment, to people whose homes are nearby.

Links:

2) The border has been the site of family separations. Over 5,000 children were separated from their families at the border. The rollout was chaotic, and the trauma, immeasurable.

The administration forced families seeking asylum to wait in Mexico while their cases wound through imm courts. Then the court hearings were suspended. ~60,000 people were placed in this program, in shelters and makeshift camps in Mexico, waiting indefinitely.

Something big just happened over the North Sea... I DONT KNOW WHAT THOUGH.

I’ll post the air traffic screenshots below in this thread.

It’s certainly NOT what the media reported at 2:42PM as the jets were still on mission at 4:25PM.

Aircraft one NATO

Aircraft two RAF

Aircraft three RAF

Aircraft four RAF

On Jan 4 the Eighth Circuit issued a pretty awful opinion on eligibility for a fraud waiver after a person is denaturalized for fraud, essentially endorsing gamesmanship by the DHS without notice. The case is Herrera Gonzalez v. Rosen.

Petitioner admitted she had gotten her permanent residence through fraud (which led to a criminal conviction and later denaturalization). The government charged her with removability for the fraud, and she applied for the waiver that is allowed under that section.

After the judge had sustained the fraud charge, the DHS added a new charge that the marriage fraud conviction was a "crime involving moral turpitude." Then, at trial, the DHS withdrew the fraud charge, leaving only the CIMT charge, and argued there was no waiver for just the CIMT

Citing Matter of Tima, the Eighth Circuit agreed that the "fraud waiver" couldn't be used if the DHS plays this game of charging the same conduct under a different section, and that not doing that until the moment of trial didn't violate her right to due process.

There are problems with this. One is that Matter of Tima largely erases part of the fraud waiver statute - the part that says a fraud waiver under that section does waive other related grouns of removability. I wrote about it here when Tima was issued.

The stories from Bessborough are devastating.

One: “I was screaming with the pain, three days screaming with the pain and all you got was, ‘Oh you should have thought about this nine months ago.’ ‘You have got to suffer for your sins and you have got to put up with it.’ And the more you screamed the more she abused you.”

Another: The midwife “wouldn't give any painkilling. She was cutting the girls down below and just would tell them this is your punishment for what you have done and you are never doing this again.”

Another: “When my baby boy was six-seven weeks old, he was wrenched from my breast by one of the nuns whilst I was feeding him and taken away for adoption… I ran after the nun down the corridor, but there were two big doors that women weren’t allowed to go through… [1/2]

“…and so all I could do was bang on those doors.

“About an hour later the nun came back and told me that my baby was gone… At no time did I give my consent to my son’s adoption.”

@The_Rumpus is open for essay submissions until February 28, so here’s a #RumpusEssays thread in which our amazing editors share what they would like to see in submissions. Give them a follow and send your essay our way via @submittable

Features Editor @happiestwerther is “still (forever) in love with the researched essays that teach me something about a subject while I also learn about a narrator.” #RumpusEssays

Assistant Features Editor @sarahkasbeer would like to see “essays with unexpected engines / innovative structures / emotional and intellectual depth / good ole narrative tension.” #RumpusEssays

Features Editor @kaytaybayy: “I'd love to see essays that are imbued with kinetic energy. I don't care what they're about. Just sweep me into your experiences and thoughts. Compel me to shake my dust off.” #RumpusEssays

Asst Feat Ed @DJ_theoretical: "I’d love to read about that weird, niche topic you’re obsessed with. Your Pog collection, those ribbon candies that seemingly only grandmas buy, your new obscure hobby. Distract me from the horrible big picture with your hyperfixations."

Once again the nighmarish scenario of the Nigerian military not only decimating Boko Haram, but going after ISWAP in the Lake Chad basin has triggered the same sort of activities that preceded the March/April 2020 false flag Maskirovska.

In the early months of 2020 the Nigerian Army recorded unexpectedly significant gains against Boko Haram insurgents. Remember this was the period Boko Haram insurgents were surrendering to the Nigerian army by the hundreds. Who remembers the audio tape of Abubakar Shekau

...weeping to Allah/God for intervention. This was the first time Field artillery troops coordinated with the NAF for round the clock air and artillery bombardment. This affected the morale of BHTs who have never experienced this level of firepower and began surrendering en mass

Things got so bad Shekau sent assassination squads to go after BHT commanders surrendering. This did nothing to deter the exodus of frightened fighters. The army was having a hard time processing the hundreds surrendering. A BHT commander surrendered with his wife and children.

What happened next? Boko Haram supposedly attacked a Chadian Army base, a few kilometres from U.S and French military bases for NINE straight hours. Killed 100 Chadian troops and escaped on canoes with caches of weapon. Think about it. For nine hours the vaunted Chadian army

Last month marked 4 years since the Battle of Aleppo was concluded.

Since then, over 500 projects have been implemented in the city, and 2500 projects in the governorate.

An extensive thread of the progress that has been made over the past four years:

4.2 million m2 of rubble and debris has been removed, and the removal of circa 6070 destroyed or burnt vehicles.

117 water sanitation projects have been implemented, in addition to the implementation of asphaltation projects amounting to 1.2 million m2 of asphalt.

Circa 4650 lamp-posts have been rehabilitated or installed to relight the city. Many of these run on solar lightning.

47 green spaces and parks have been rehabilitated, including the Central Park of Aleppo. This year (January 2021), Aleppo City Council has already begun rehabilitating three more parks - Seif Al Dawla Park, Al-Ansari Park, and Al-Sukari Park.

$LMND – Lemonade insurance, MEGA THREAD! 🥳

One of the longer ones, but we will come around the company, numbers, bull/bear-case, 2021 expectations, products, etc.

Always apricate a comment, retweet, and dialogue about these threads🥰

Hope you are ready🚀

1/x What they do

”Lemonade Insurance Company is transforming the very business model of insurance… Unlike any other insurance company, we gain nothing by delaying or denying claims (we take a flat fee!), so we handle and pay as many claims instantly as possible.”

2/x The company

👉4 years old
👉Hyper-scaleup
👉Not profitable
👉Using AI is their biggest advantage
👉+1M customers
👉They have 0 debt
👉+300 employees
👉+50 job openings atm
👉90 seconds to sign up
👉down to 3 seconds to get paid for a claim (avg. 1 day)

How they do:

3/x Funding💰

Lemonade Inc. is backed by investors including:

- Aleph
- General Catalyst
- GV (formerly Google Ventures)
- Sequoia Capital
- Thrive Capital
- SoftBank (biggest investor today, 21,18%)

The total money raised by the company to $480 million before IPO🤑🤑

4/x Data

- 87% of their customers are first-time policyholders
- 75% are younger than 34 years of age
- Biggest age group are 25-34 years with 63%
- 23,5% female / 76,5% male
- Customers Per human are outstanding
- Their prices are on average 68% cheaper than their competitors

If you don’t see the connection between the Nashville terrorist blowing up a city block and the violent Capitol insurrection, you’re not paying attention.

We have allowed and even enabled white extremism to thrive in this country by not addressing them as what they are - terrorists - and by not punishing their actions for what they are - terrorism.

The GOP has wrapped these extremists into their tent for decades. These have always been rebranding off the same them - white extremism and accelerationism.

These calls for “unity” from the terrorist apologists or even those who incited the terrorism is so disingenuous as to be absurd. We absolutely should not allow them to dictate the narrative about what they created.

You see, the implication in all of these calls for “unity” aren’t just disingenuous, but contain an implied threat about exactly what they have enabled:
“If you don’t let these white extremists off, there will be more white extremism.”

We analyzed, minute by minute, the crucial two-hour period during which a Trump rally to stop the certification of the election results gave way to a mob that nearly came face to face with Congress. Here’s what we found: https://t.co/HSsHQLiEpp

As President Trump prepares to speak near the White House, his loyalists are already gathering at the Capitol. Inside, Congress prepares for proceedings to certify the Electoral College vote. Putting these timelines together shows the urgency of the situation.

For weeks, Trump had urged his supporters to go to D.C. to stop the certification of election results. Several simultaneous rallies are planned, including the “wild rally” on the Capitol lawn, as this supporter-made map shows.

It’s 11:50 a.m. A group of Proud Boys is staging on the east side of Capitol, along with hundreds of Trump supporters. Photo credit: Amanda Andrade-Rhoades/For The Washington Post via Getty Images.

More than a mile away, at 11:52 a.m., Donald Trump Jr. films the president and his inner circle backstage before his father’s speech, marveling at the size of the crowd.

1/10. The claim that Trump won the election is a Big Lie.

2/10. A Big Lie changes reality. To believe it, people must disbelieve their senses, distrust their fellow citizens, and live in a world of faith.

3/10. A Big Lie demands conspiracy thinking, since all who doubt it are seen as traitors.

4/10. A Big Lie undoes a society, since it divides citizens into believers and unbelievers.

5/10. A Big Lie destroys democracy, since people who are convinced that nothing is true but the utterances of their leader ignore voting and its results.