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Q: Why is $TSLA up 6% on no news?
GB: Because it was down 8% yesterday on no news - unless you call a 10 bp rise in treasury yields and $BTC collapsing news. You still short?
I had a two-day email exchange with a guy I used to work with who now runs a $600M hedge fund and shorted $TSLA at $600. He\u2019s now kicking himself as $TSLA approaches $700. Amazingly:
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) December 28, 2020
1/ He\u2019s a value investor who doesn\u2019t own growth stocks, but thinks he can short growth stocks.
2/ Q: Of course Iâm still short. Itâs up another 30% since we talked two weeks ago. Itâs all moâ.
GB: $TSLA MIC Y has a 4 mo wait. Itâs entering India. Analysts are playing leapfrog raising PTs. Active mgrs have to own it or get fired. Itâs cheap at 80x 2022 EPS vs 55% growth.
3/ Q: Your earnings estimates are like twice consensus.
GB: The Streetâs been wrong on $TSLA forever. Why do you listen to them? You really shouldnât be short going into Bidenâs inaugural speech and the FYâ21 volume guide at the end of Jan. Youâre going to get run over.
4/ Q: Whatever.
GB: Did you rent a Tesla for a week like I told you?
Q: No. You know I donât drive.
GB: Did you build a $TSLA 5-yr volume, earnings, cash flow model?
Q: No. No one can forecast out 5 years.
GB: Did you talk to any Audi or BMW dealers? Or Tesla owners?
5/ Q: I donât have time for that.
GB: Q, you havenât done any real research. $TSLA âs up 40% since you shorted it. Maybe you should figure out why it keeps going up.
Q: It keeps going up because people like you are pumping it.
GB: Youâre giving people like me too much credit.
Rather than debate that question here (or in another forum), I'm making it an assignment. Specifically, I'm asking my Quantitative Security students to determine if it belongs in our coup/attempted coup datasets.
[THREAD]
A core goal of this course is to introduce students to how Large-N data on violence and security are created.
We put WAY TOO much emphasis on estimators & software (Stata v R đ); not enough on the quality of the data going into the analysis.
First, what happened? @johncarey03755 offers a succinct
Second, I'll ask the students to read some of the recent pieces that say the event was NOT a coup attempt.
These include...
...detailed twitter threads by
Let me try this again\u2026 What would it look like if this were a coup (failed, in progress, or otherwise)? 1/n
— Kristen Harkness (@HarknessKristen) January 7, 2021
In light of yesterday's violent display of Christian nationalism at the Capitol, what should we watch for from the Christian Right in 2021?
— Chrissy Stroop in the winter of our discontent (@C_Stroop) January 7, 2021
And how can we effectively direct our advocacy and activism?
If you're asking those questions, read my latest:https://t.co/6eQqdMHBBX
My hometown is Alamogordo, New Mexico. It's a military town. Holloman Air Force base is nearby, and so is the Army's White Sands Missile Range. It's also a hotbed of White Evangelical Christian Nationalism. 2/
Currently, the most notorious Christian Nationalist from Alamogordo that I can think of is Couy Griffin (no relation to me). He's a former pastor, turned County Commissioner, and founder of the group "Cowboys for Trump." I've talked about him before.
*Heavy Sigh* This chucklehead, Couy Griffin is from the town I was born in and grew up in. I know folks in his family. This is my roots. This is the kind of nonsense I left. 1/ https://t.co/TQV9xtgMKT
— Daniel Griffin (@HC_Exvangelical) May 21, 2020
Couy Griffin and his Cowboys for Trump attended the the Coup Klux Klan in D.C. I'm not surprised. They went prepared for extremism. Here's a quick video of them outside the kitschy "Running Indian" trading post just outside Alamogordo. 4/

Notice what they say. "Give me liberty or give me death" and "We've god God on our side, and we've got the Truth on our side." Probably every Ex-evangelical I know has heard those words in church. 5/