Was the attack on the US Capitol an attempted coup?

Rather than debate that question here (or in another forum), I'm making it an assignment. Specifically, I'm asking my Quantitative Security students to determine if it belongs in our coup/attempted coup datasets.

[THREAD]

A core goal of this course is to introduce students to how Large-N data on violence and security are created.

We put WAY TOO much emphasis on estimators & software (Stata v R 🙄); not enough on the quality of the data going into the analysis.
First, what happened? @johncarey03755 offers a succinct explainer

https://t.co/oNNACsl6Z4
Second, I'll ask the students to read some of the recent pieces that say the event was NOT a coup attempt.

These include...
...detailed twitter threads by @HarknessKristen...

https://t.co/dyFBxlMGMt
...and by @naunihalpublic.

https://t.co/oyvCZPRTiH
They also include this @washingtonpost article that quotes @naunihalpublic & @esdebruin

https://t.co/dRLmleKQky
Speaking of @esdebruin, she wrote an earlier thread that also details conditions for considering an event to be a coup

https://t.co/3VZHAo35uX
And then there is the pedantry of @smsaideman 😉

https://t.co/08yVTIW31y
Third, I'll the give the students articles that make the case for this event BEING a coup.

Those include...
...@profmusgrave's @ForeignPolicy piece...

https://t.co/dyiHV5nBTx
... @JHWeissmann pointing to the work of the Cline Center...

https://t.co/pdxbxJ9B1h
... and @dhnexon's blog post (though his says it's BOTH a coup and an insurrection)
https://t.co/HMYTUVrhEp
Third, the students will look at some of the recent coup data projects to understand the coding rules that scholars use to create "coup attempt" datasets.

These include...
...the Powell & Thyne data on coups & coup attempts...

https://t.co/9n8jdgdZ5r
...The Cline Center data on coups...

https://t.co/Y7e9SdBxQM
... and Chapter 3 of @naunihalpublic's book.

https://t.co/dlFWMPtlUL
Fourth, I'll ask the students to answer this question:

"based on what you read and based on the coding criteria used in the datasets you explored, should the event of Jan 6 be included as an observation in a coup attempt dataset?"
I'm VERY curious to see how the students respond. I'll report the findings soon!

[END]
Addendum: The students could consider "self-coup", as Fiona Hill argues here (which is also a category in the Cline Database)

https://t.co/xhVElSAcoj

More from Paul Poast

Is it true that democracies don't go to war with each other?

Sort of. But I wouldn't base public policy on the finding.

Why? Let's turn to the data.

[THREAD]


The idea of a "Democratic Peace" is a widely held view that's been around for a long time.

By 1988, there already existed enough studies on the topic for Jack Levy to famously label Democratic Peace "an empirical law"


The earliest empirical work on the topic was the 1964 report by Dean Babst published in the "Wisconsin Sociologist"


Using the war participation data from Quincy Wright's "A Study of War", Babst produced the following two tables


The tables show that democracies were NOT on both sides (of course, Finland is awkward given that it fought WITH Nazi Germany against the Soviet Union).

Babst expanded his study beyond the World Wars in a 1972 paper in Industrial Research. He confirmed his finding.

More from Government

I don't normally do threads like this but I did want to provide some deeper thoughts on the below and why having a video game based on a real world war crime from the same people that received CIA funding isn't the best idea.

This will go pretty in depth FYI.


The core reason why I'm doing this thread is because:

1. It's clear the developers are marketing the game a certain way.

2. This is based on something that actually happened, a war crime no less. I don't have issues with shooter games in general ofc.

Firstly, It's important to acknowledge that the Iraq war was an illegal war, based on lies, a desire for regime change and control of resources in the region.

These were lies that people believed and still believe to this day.

It's also important to mention that the action taken by these aggressors is the reason there was a battle in Fallujah in the first place. People became resistance fighters because they were left with nothing but death and destruction all around them after the illegal invasion.

This is where one of the first red flags comes up.

The game is very much from an American point of view, as shown in the description.

When it mentions Iraqi civilians, it doesn't talk about them as victims, but mentions them as being pro US, fighting alongside them.

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