Some folks have asked me to explain what’s going on with @twitter locking the @nypost twitter account:

1. Post posted that story on Hunter Biden which twitter determined at the time contained materials (emails and photos) that violated twitter rules.

well... it's time for my ELECTION FORECAST.

First, some notes about my thoughts, and statistics, etc...

If you want to see the forecasts, just scroll on past the next few tweets to get to that... BUT these notes are important.

1/

My feeling is that the polls are getting this wrong, and in a BIG WAY. There are so many factors that are the cause... I'll run through them.

First, the media and pollsters are GREATLY underestimating the extreme anger rising up in the American population against trump...

2/

It's hard to overstate this. This is an election like no other in modern history. We have a president and an administration who are actively killing people during an election cycle, and seem to have no qualms about doing so... and the public is ACUTELY AWARE of this.

3/

Next, the youth vote. We're seeing a 600% increase in the youth vote, just in early voting, down here in Texas... and similar huge increases across the country. Pollsters aren't reaching these people... at all.

4/

Next, first time voters. This factor is massive. We're seeing huge numbers of first time voters across the country. Pollsters will never reach these people, as they don't fall into the categories of "active" or "likely" voters.

5/

1/15 Good morning sports fans! How did you spend your night? I watched MSNBC, love Kornacki, you can have the rest of them, but I hated whenever the sound came on saying IT'S TIME TO CALL SOMETHING. It was always something like Kentucky or South Dakota, Vermont or New York. At

2/15 one point I wrote on Twitter we're on the roller coaster now. That feeling of this is being done to me, I don't like it but at this point I have no choice, I'm on for the ride. I watched as Kornacki flipped over the counties in Florida, a remarkable number of which I was

3/15 familiar with either from having been there or listening to any number of podcasts instructing me what to look out for. Very depressing. Oh shit. This feels like 2016, I said -- as did everyone else watching the returns. I started nodding off around 9PM and finally decided

4/15 to go to bed at 10, and woke up at 1AM, and went looking to see how things had turned out and I literally screamed out loud when I saw Trump was ahead in Wisconsin. Oy oy oy. So here we are. And where is that exactly?

5/15 Well, Biden is very likely to win. And that is good news, even though they're already spinning on the webs that it would have been better if we won the Senate and lost the presidency, which is such utter bullshit. People are so stupid. Getting rid of Trump was job #1, and it

So, here's a story. You've heard me talk about my cousin in Arizona before. (A ton of you sewed masks & sent them to her for distribution to the local Navajo community, thank you!) Post-2016, she took a look at her AZ community & decided to get involved in local politics.

She started looking up who to talk to in her precinct, and realized that there was no Democratic precinct captain/committee member for her precinct. In fact, there were a *ton* of precincts where no one had run for the Dem. precinct. Every precinct had a GOP captain though.

For non-USians, every precinct has both a Democratic & Repubican precinct captain or committee person. They campaign on behalf of their party's candidates. Talk to voters, canvass door-to-door, share info about voting. They're critical for GOTV efforts & it's an elected position.

Precincts are tiny compared to things like counties or cities. You really get to know the voters, because they're literally your neighbors. But because it's not a role with power, a lot of precinct roles are vacant where there's a clear (or assumed) one-party advantage.

So my cousin and her husband (who had just retired) got involved. She ran for precinct captain in the next election and won. They recruited more Dems to run for these vacant precinct captain seats. They started going to local party meetings, learning the system, getting informed.

Summary of Georgia Kraken Release...
Happy Thanksgiving, 🦃 🇺🇸!

COUNT I

DEFENDANTS VIOLATED THE ELECTIONS CLAUSE AND 42 U.S.C. § 1983

these are all things republicans really said

democrats forced lenders to crash the housing market. george soros manipulated the markets too. this led to obama. obama used hypnosis to convince people to vote for him.

obama used acorn and the new black panthers to steal races for him.

bill and hillary have personally killed dozens of people. hillary got 3 million illegal votes counted and didn't really win the popular vote.

joe biden got thousands of people killed during h1n1 and made billions through his son but republicans never bothered to say anything about it.

the evidence of biden's crimes are in a laptop and also tucker carlson has them but somebody stole his mail.

im leaving so many of these out.

Our latest YouGov/The Economist poll has a host of troubling findings about public confidence in the election.

Most shocking is that 86% of Trump voters say that Biden "did not legitimately win the election." 73% say that we'll "never know the real outcome of this election."

We also see the usual patterns in attitudes about mail-in voting and fraud. 88% of Trump voters say they believe that "illegal immigrants voted fraudulently in 2016 and tried again in 2020," for ex, and 90% believed that "mail ballots are being manipulated to favor Joe Biden."

Republicans are also exhibiting some... concerning... attitudes about the franchise, with 46% saying that "some people are not smart enough to vote" (27% among Dems) and 43% saying that people should have to pass a test before voting (15% for Dems).

89% of Trump voters think he should contest the outcome of the election in court, and 62% of his voters think it will change the outcome.

Fewer than half of Americans expect there will be a peaceful transition of power to a Biden presidency.

More here:

(Thread)
I may not be all that old, but I’m old enough to remember a time when politicians weren’t self absorbed bags of shit.
I’m old enough to remember how everyone came together in the wake of a tragedy that killed Americans.
A time before we had the internet widely available

In the days after 9/11 I was 16 years old in the NY Metro area. We watched our communities come together to lift up America.
We were proud to be American.
We were survivors in the face of terrorism. We buried loved ones and attended memorial after memorial for the 2,977 souls.

Nobody discounted any loss. Each was just as tragic as the next. From the people on the planes to those who gave their lives trying to rescue people from those buildings.
We were one people. We were American people.
We weren’t Republicans or Democrats we were AMERICANS.

In the years that followed, peoples dedication faded and life went back to a place of being semi-normal. But I never lost that pride of being an American.
My grandmother immigrated to America during WWII as a refugee from Poland.
She fled for the American dream.

When Barack Obama ran, I not only campaigned for him, but I voted for him. Twice, once in 2008 and again in 2012. I felt proud to have a successful black man breaking history for all of the little boys and girls that would look up to him.
But this is where it started.

The clown in the White House just brokered four Middle East Peace Accords, something that 71 years of political intervention and endless war failed to produce.

The buffoon in the White House is the first president that has not engaged us in a foreign war since Eisenhower.

The clown in the White House has had the greatest impact on the economy, bringing jobs, and lowering unemployment to the Black and Latino population of ANY other president. Ever.

The buffoon in the White House has exposed the deep, widespread, and long-standing corruption in the FBI, the CIA, the NSA, and the Republican and Democratic parties.

The buffoon in the White House turned NATO around and had them start paying their dues.

The clown in the White House neutralized the North Koreans, stopped them from developing a further nuclear capability, sending missiles toward Japan, and threatening the West Coast of the US.

The clown in the White House turned our relationship with the Chinese around, brought hundreds of business back to the US, and revived the economy. Hello!!!!!!!

Rarely do this but I’ve transcribed this clip word for word because it’s too powerful not to. It’s a heart to heart. Watch or read if easier. @esglaude

“America is not unique in its sins as a country. We’re not unique in our evils to be honest with you.

I'm not seeing much discussion of the massive damage that's been done to the Democratic Party.

The Democrats I know are cops, farmers, teachers; families who love America & their neighbors. They love the DP they knew from the past.

But the party has been wholesale hijacked.

The Clintons bear much of the blame for destroying the DP, but not all of it. The DP has sold out to multinational corporations, and allowed itself to be infiltrated by America-hating Marxists and other extremist splinter groups, while pandering for votes.

That's why Dems like Pelosi, Biden, Feinstein, Nadler, Tom Perez, Donna Brazile seem so hog-tied most of the time

Trump has been a GIFT to them, because they can focus all their public attention on him, and not on the deep divisions & fatal fractures in their party.

For example, they've embraced Antifa & BLM activists thinking that this will pull more voters to the DP, unified by their loathing of Trump.

The DP thinks it can "turn off" these protests like a spigot if/when they win the WH and Congress.

They're wrong.

Just like their embrace of the Squad: AOC, Tlaib, Pressly and Omar, those decisions are going to come back to bite them.

The Democratic Party has now taken the Marxists, anarchists and their poisonous ideologies right into the heart of the party, and it's going to kill them.

✨ Excited to launch:✨

~ WAVES OF INTEREST ~
Tracing Google Search Interest
in US Election Years

https://t.co/iF8VwZTgS7

w/ @recifs @destrysibley @googlenewsinit @albertocairo @smfrogers

🧵👇

When @smfrogers and @albertocairo reached out to do a project for the US elections, based on Google Trends data, my immediate thought was to make it *long-term*.

Google Trends covers 17 years of data by now!

What an opportunity to investigate how past US election years were different from this one, and which attention cycles can we observe within election years.

How did the topic landscape evolve?

And how has the pace of attention shifts changed?

After lots of analysis and experimentation, we put together the site as follows:

Opening with a smooth wavy line chart animation — an ambient introduction to the theme of waves, and trends — we dive right into the first central question:

"Which political topics trend in election years in general? And when?"

We show both a list of top rising topics in election years, as well as a detailed chart of how their search interest values unfolded over the years.

Hello, friends. Today is Election Day! And that means it’s time to make my prediction for what’s going to unfold beginning this evening. Long thread incoming... (1 / ??)

As most of you know, I’ve spent the last several months building and tweaking my own Presidential election model to predict the outcome.

My hypothesis is that President Trump’s share of the vote will be pretty close to his polling averages and job approval rating since this election is going to primarily be a referendum on him.

Assuming total 3rd party vote margins revert back to normal after an unusually high percentage in 2016, the remainder of the votes will, by default, go to Joe Biden.

We won’t know if I’m right until after all the votes are counted (which will take at least a week, as per usual), but that’s how I came up with the following numbers.

You voted right? Good. This is a thread of nothing but some YouTube favorites of mine which you can have as a little treat.

A full 2000s era Tenacious D concert

Rodrigo y Gabriela tinydesk just killing it

Harry Styles Sledgehammer cover

Smashmouth’s All Star cover played entirely on melons

1/ The SCOTUS decision in favor of the "religious freedom" to gather in large groups despite the pandemic is part of a larger effort to elevate so called religious liberty above all other freedoms, but not in the way most agree with...

2/ Most everyone would agree that people's right to worship as they see fit should be protected, to believe as they wish, free from persecution, etc. That is not what this is, or what other religious liberty cases are about...

3/ These cases are about elevating the rights of persons claiming to be acting on the basis of religious belief, to engage in activity that injures others, without consequence. So here it means the right to worship in large groups even if it endangers public health...

4/ In other cases it means the right to discriminate against customers if you have a 'religious objection' to their sexual orientation, gender identity, etc. And what's especially disturbing is the real endgame, which few talk about...

5/ This is really about gutting civil rights protections. If you ask virtually any right wing conservative jurist, or commentator or politician, they will admit, if you push, that they don't think civil rights law should ever have applied to private businesses...

My update on what I know.

I have lots of phone calls & emails & texts & will give it to you straight & with a couple of early thoughts.

Have coffee not gin & follow if interested. 1/

The presidential is confusing, but a scenario many anticipated (including both campaigns)— if not the pollsters exactly— although that verdict isn’t entirely even set. 2/

Let me start with some certainties.

1) If every vote counted equally, this would be a Biden-Harris landslide or very close.
2) Every vote isn’t counted equally & everyone knew that.
3) More people than ever voted for the other guy than you. Record turnout for both. 3/

A large disappointment is that many hoped for a significant repudiation of Trump & his indifference to human life, human suffering, his corruption, and goal of getting rid of the ACA.

No matter the final total it will be hard to make that claim. 4/

In the next few days, the vote will be added up in Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Arizona is also not universally called, but looks like Biden.

Expectations are... 5/