Jacobtldr Categories Politics
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I'm kind of surprised I haven't seen an article in @FiveThirtyEight or somewhere similar using the Total Survey Error framework as a tool for categorizing potential sources of survey error and tests for those hypotheses as election results get finalized.
When survey researchers hear about "Shy Trump" voters, we hear it as measurement error, and there's good evidence that it's vanishingly small. But I think the broader public might also be including non-response error as part of how they understand that term
As we unpack the sources of survey error, it's worth keeping our eye on some patterns. For instance, this comparison of survey averages to projected results by @gelliottmorris shows a correlation between 2016 and 2020, but also an intercept shift
Putting out some hypotheses now that can be tested as vote counts get finalized (still not done counting!) and pollsters look back at their own data
1) Everything @davidshor says here about trust and non-response: https://t.co/aXYZMc5QO5
It's tricky to test for, because surveys aren't asking about trust and we don't have great national benchmarks either. That said ...
When survey researchers hear about "Shy Trump" voters, we hear it as measurement error, and there's good evidence that it's vanishingly small. But I think the broader public might also be including non-response error as part of how they understand that term
As we unpack the sources of survey error, it's worth keeping our eye on some patterns. For instance, this comparison of survey averages to projected results by @gelliottmorris shows a correlation between 2016 and 2020, but also an intercept shift
Putting out some hypotheses now that can be tested as vote counts get finalized (still not done counting!) and pollsters look back at their own data
1) Everything @davidshor says here about trust and non-response: https://t.co/aXYZMc5QO5
It's tricky to test for, because surveys aren't asking about trust and we don't have great national benchmarks either. That said ...
1/Following great stories by @jennymedina and @mannyNYT, sharing some of what I saw on election night, most of which I spent with Mexican-American Republicans in the Rio Grande Valley (Cameron and Hidalgo counties) w/ @IlanaPL on the 📸.
2/I had seen on social media before I arrived that Trump trains were happening locally and I was curious to see if he had gained meaningful ground (You know by now that Hillary won there in 2016 by 33 and 41 percentage points respectively.) ex:
3/I also wanted to see what it was like, in a red state allegedly turning purple, to be in a blue region that may have been moving in the opposite direction.
4/Aside from Twitter, it was hard to find coverage of the Trump trains (which, according to locals, had been going on every weekend for at least a month, with hundreds involved) or of growing local enthusiasm for Trump.
5/Late morning, I spoke to @MorganGrahamGOP, the first Latina head of the Cameron County Republicans, who expected modest but meaningful gains. “I don’t think he’s going to break 40%, but mid-high 30s. That doesn’t seem like a lot to folks,” she said, but in the RGV, it was.
2/I had seen on social media before I arrived that Trump trains were happening locally and I was curious to see if he had gained meaningful ground (You know by now that Hillary won there in 2016 by 33 and 41 percentage points respectively.) ex:
This is the RGV where my wife Debbie (@debber66) grew up. it\u2019s the bluest part of Texas and mostly Hispanic. She never thought she would see the day! #Maga2020 #RGV https://t.co/ziPTmgjhWB
— Dinesh D'Souza (@DineshDSouza) November 3, 2020
3/I also wanted to see what it was like, in a red state allegedly turning purple, to be in a blue region that may have been moving in the opposite direction.
4/Aside from Twitter, it was hard to find coverage of the Trump trains (which, according to locals, had been going on every weekend for at least a month, with hundreds involved) or of growing local enthusiasm for Trump.
5/Late morning, I spoke to @MorganGrahamGOP, the first Latina head of the Cameron County Republicans, who expected modest but meaningful gains. “I don’t think he’s going to break 40%, but mid-high 30s. That doesn’t seem like a lot to folks,” she said, but in the RGV, it was.
Since taking office, President Trump's businesses have likely taken in more than $13 million from special interest groups representing private prisons, payday lenders, and many other industries seeking to curry favor with his administration.
2/ While it’s long been routine for wealthy interests seeking to buy access and influence over a president to do so by making large political contributions to his campaign and allied groups, it’s unique to President Trump that these groups personally enrich him in the process.
3/ We've tracked 137 of these events since the day Trump took office. https://t.co/toIW0EJOyK
4/ And some of the big spenders have gotten their money's worth, as the NYT laid out earlier this month in a detailed report partly based on our data
5/ Groups large and small have learned that holding expensive events that the president profits from is a part of doing business in Trump's Washington, and it's paying off.
Take the AHRI, which spent $700k at Doral, and got a favorable decision within weeks
2/ While it’s long been routine for wealthy interests seeking to buy access and influence over a president to do so by making large political contributions to his campaign and allied groups, it’s unique to President Trump that these groups personally enrich him in the process.
3/ We've tracked 137 of these events since the day Trump took office. https://t.co/toIW0EJOyK
4/ And some of the big spenders have gotten their money's worth, as the NYT laid out earlier this month in a detailed report partly based on our data
5/ Groups large and small have learned that holding expensive events that the president profits from is a part of doing business in Trump's Washington, and it's paying off.
Take the AHRI, which spent $700k at Doral, and got a favorable decision within weeks
