Jacobtldr Categories Politics
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And ‘audit’ can only be as good as the Auditor + Access that they are given + standards they are auditing to.
I feel like (when it comes to Tech) we have people making rules & certifications that can neither hear, nor see... evil.
Remember this as we call for election “Audits”.
I feel like (when it comes to Tech) we have people making rules & certifications that can neither hear, nor see... evil.
Remember this as we call for election “Audits”.
Now, if what you are suggesting is they should do a full audit of election software + machine security, that could be worthwhile.
— Double-Wide Dreaming\u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f (@2xwide_dreaming) November 7, 2020
But these software packages have *never* been reviewed/oversight!
i had an idea once to just write out all the conspiracies. still might do it. its so insane.
i have a lot of love for the obama mass hypnosis storyline.
im not making this shit up https://t.co/z9pBNWdGpn
goddamn this is the good stuff
ah yessssssssssssssssssssssss
these are all things republicans really said
— Oliver Willis (@owillis) October 29, 2020
democrats forced lenders to crash the housing market. george soros manipulated the markets too. this led to obama. obama used hypnosis to convince people to vote for him.
i have a lot of love for the obama mass hypnosis storyline.
im not making this shit up https://t.co/z9pBNWdGpn
goddamn this is the good stuff
ah yessssssssssssssssssssssss
I'm kind of surprised I haven't seen an article in @FiveThirtyEight or somewhere similar using the Total Survey Error framework as a tool for categorizing potential sources of survey error and tests for those hypotheses as election results get finalized.
When survey researchers hear about "Shy Trump" voters, we hear it as measurement error, and there's good evidence that it's vanishingly small. But I think the broader public might also be including non-response error as part of how they understand that term
As we unpack the sources of survey error, it's worth keeping our eye on some patterns. For instance, this comparison of survey averages to projected results by @gelliottmorris shows a correlation between 2016 and 2020, but also an intercept shift
Putting out some hypotheses now that can be tested as vote counts get finalized (still not done counting!) and pollsters look back at their own data
1) Everything @davidshor says here about trust and non-response: https://t.co/aXYZMc5QO5
It's tricky to test for, because surveys aren't asking about trust and we don't have great national benchmarks either. That said ...
When survey researchers hear about "Shy Trump" voters, we hear it as measurement error, and there's good evidence that it's vanishingly small. But I think the broader public might also be including non-response error as part of how they understand that term
As we unpack the sources of survey error, it's worth keeping our eye on some patterns. For instance, this comparison of survey averages to projected results by @gelliottmorris shows a correlation between 2016 and 2020, but also an intercept shift
Putting out some hypotheses now that can be tested as vote counts get finalized (still not done counting!) and pollsters look back at their own data
1) Everything @davidshor says here about trust and non-response: https://t.co/aXYZMc5QO5
It's tricky to test for, because surveys aren't asking about trust and we don't have great national benchmarks either. That said ...
BREAKING: The entire D.C. National Guard will be activated today, putting about 1,100 guardsmen on duty tonight, defense official tells me. Comes after breach of Capitol by pro-Trump protesters.
Same defense official confirms Mayor Bowser made request for National Guard at Capitol as it was breached. Defense officials initially offered to replace police in other capacities in the city, allowing more police at Capitol specifically, source
Defense official denies that DOD denied the request from D.C. officials for more support at Capitol, but acknowledges it has not yet been acted upon.
Some 340 D.C. guardsmen already were activated in anticipation of unrest, with a support role for police. Half on duty at a time. Defense officials, smarting from outcry to military's heavy involvement in June protests, sought limited role and to shield military from politics.
Same defense official confirms Mayor Bowser made request for National Guard at Capitol as it was breached. Defense officials initially offered to replace police in other capacities in the city, allowing more police at Capitol specifically, source
BREAKING: A source tells me The Defense Department has just denied a request by DC officials to deploy the National Guard to the US Capitol.
— Aaron C. Davis (@byaaroncdavis) January 6, 2021
Defense official denies that DOD denied the request from D.C. officials for more support at Capitol, but acknowledges it has not yet been acted upon.
Some 340 D.C. guardsmen already were activated in anticipation of unrest, with a support role for police. Half on duty at a time. Defense officials, smarting from outcry to military's heavy involvement in June protests, sought limited role and to shield military from politics.
1/Following great stories by @jennymedina and @mannyNYT, sharing some of what I saw on election night, most of which I spent with Mexican-American Republicans in the Rio Grande Valley (Cameron and Hidalgo counties) w/ @IlanaPL on the 📸.
2/I had seen on social media before I arrived that Trump trains were happening locally and I was curious to see if he had gained meaningful ground (You know by now that Hillary won there in 2016 by 33 and 41 percentage points respectively.) ex:
3/I also wanted to see what it was like, in a red state allegedly turning purple, to be in a blue region that may have been moving in the opposite direction.
4/Aside from Twitter, it was hard to find coverage of the Trump trains (which, according to locals, had been going on every weekend for at least a month, with hundreds involved) or of growing local enthusiasm for Trump.
5/Late morning, I spoke to @MorganGrahamGOP, the first Latina head of the Cameron County Republicans, who expected modest but meaningful gains. “I don’t think he’s going to break 40%, but mid-high 30s. That doesn’t seem like a lot to folks,” she said, but in the RGV, it was.
2/I had seen on social media before I arrived that Trump trains were happening locally and I was curious to see if he had gained meaningful ground (You know by now that Hillary won there in 2016 by 33 and 41 percentage points respectively.) ex:
This is the RGV where my wife Debbie (@debber66) grew up. it\u2019s the bluest part of Texas and mostly Hispanic. She never thought she would see the day! #Maga2020 #RGV https://t.co/ziPTmgjhWB
— Dinesh D'Souza (@DineshDSouza) November 3, 2020
3/I also wanted to see what it was like, in a red state allegedly turning purple, to be in a blue region that may have been moving in the opposite direction.
4/Aside from Twitter, it was hard to find coverage of the Trump trains (which, according to locals, had been going on every weekend for at least a month, with hundreds involved) or of growing local enthusiasm for Trump.
5/Late morning, I spoke to @MorganGrahamGOP, the first Latina head of the Cameron County Republicans, who expected modest but meaningful gains. “I don’t think he’s going to break 40%, but mid-high 30s. That doesn’t seem like a lot to folks,” she said, but in the RGV, it was.
Since taking office, President Trump's businesses have likely taken in more than $13 million from special interest groups representing private prisons, payday lenders, and many other industries seeking to curry favor with his administration.
2/ While it’s long been routine for wealthy interests seeking to buy access and influence over a president to do so by making large political contributions to his campaign and allied groups, it’s unique to President Trump that these groups personally enrich him in the process.
3/ We've tracked 137 of these events since the day Trump took office. https://t.co/toIW0EJOyK
4/ And some of the big spenders have gotten their money's worth, as the NYT laid out earlier this month in a detailed report partly based on our data
5/ Groups large and small have learned that holding expensive events that the president profits from is a part of doing business in Trump's Washington, and it's paying off.
Take the AHRI, which spent $700k at Doral, and got a favorable decision within weeks
2/ While it’s long been routine for wealthy interests seeking to buy access and influence over a president to do so by making large political contributions to his campaign and allied groups, it’s unique to President Trump that these groups personally enrich him in the process.
3/ We've tracked 137 of these events since the day Trump took office. https://t.co/toIW0EJOyK
4/ And some of the big spenders have gotten their money's worth, as the NYT laid out earlier this month in a detailed report partly based on our data
5/ Groups large and small have learned that holding expensive events that the president profits from is a part of doing business in Trump's Washington, and it's paying off.
Take the AHRI, which spent $700k at Doral, and got a favorable decision within weeks
NEW: False Claims that Biden ‘Lost’ Pennsylvania Surge, and Tech Companies Struggle to Keep Up
This is one of the starkest and clearest misinformation paths I've seen lately. And I can't stress this enough, this path is VERY well-known among misinformation reporters & researchers.
It started with tweets from folks like Pam Bondi & Rudy Giuliani that Real Clear Politics had "rescinded" its call that PA went to Biden. That was picked up and repeated verbally in a YouTube video. Then the YouTube video was shared in private FB groups
The YouTube video! Is on a verified account! Running ADS! And it gained nearly 900,000 views in just 12 hours, largely because of shares on Facebook. YT says this doesn't violate its rules 🤯 https://t.co/04METfLeOq
MEANWHILE ON FACEBOOK—a CrowdTangle search shows most of this activity is in PRIVATE FB groups, beyond what researchers and journalists can see.
Only 2.5 percent of FB activity—likes, shares, comments—is visible on public FB. I truly am *losing my mind* https://t.co/04METfLeOq
This is one of the starkest and clearest misinformation paths I've seen lately. And I can't stress this enough, this path is VERY well-known among misinformation reporters & researchers.
It started with tweets from folks like Pam Bondi & Rudy Giuliani that Real Clear Politics had "rescinded" its call that PA went to Biden. That was picked up and repeated verbally in a YouTube video. Then the YouTube video was shared in private FB groups
The YouTube video! Is on a verified account! Running ADS! And it gained nearly 900,000 views in just 12 hours, largely because of shares on Facebook. YT says this doesn't violate its rules 🤯 https://t.co/04METfLeOq
MEANWHILE ON FACEBOOK—a CrowdTangle search shows most of this activity is in PRIVATE FB groups, beyond what researchers and journalists can see.
Only 2.5 percent of FB activity—likes, shares, comments—is visible on public FB. I truly am *losing my mind* https://t.co/04METfLeOq