Hello, friends. Today is Election Day! And that means it’s time to make my prediction for what’s going to unfold beginning this evening. Long thread incoming... (1 / ??)

As most of you know, I’ve spent the last several months building and tweaking my own Presidential election model to predict the outcome.

My hypothesis is that President Trump’s share of the vote will be pretty close to his polling averages and job approval rating since this election is going to primarily be a referendum on him.

Assuming total 3rd party vote margins revert back to normal after an unusually high percentage in 2016, the remainder of the votes will, by default, go to Joe Biden.

We won’t know if I’m right until after all the votes are counted (which will take at least a week, as per usual), but that’s how I came up with the following numbers.