🚨New year, new working paper🚨

If you've followed this account for long you know that in laboratory studies repetition increases belief.

When you hear something twice you're more likely to think that it's true. But it that true outside the lab? 1/

Here are a few thoughts on everything from this humble reply guy:

1: The establishment/uniparty/whatever are about to go scorched earth on whatever is left of the MAGA movement. The pampered rich kid just got a bloody nose and is about to send his lawyer parents after the bully.

If anyone wanted to defuse this, they'd offer amnesty to the protestors and give Trump a backdoor deal where he's uncharged but stays out of the political world and gets to go back to being a reality TV personality, with a bit of Dubya-style character rehabilitation thrown in.

From there, they'd steer the MAGA movement back into the ideological walled garden of Dan Crenshaw and Charlie Kirk. There'd still be rallies, but now it'd be Marco Rubio or Nikki Haley. The vast majority of Trump's voter base would lap it up like puppies.

But everyone either doesn't want to defuse this (so they can scorch even more earth) or they're so blinded by partisan furor (and their base is so fired up) that the calls for blood become a vicious cycle that pushes this towards the territory of 19th century American politics.

2: The clearpill is that even when galaxies collide, individual star systems are barely affected. Focus on yourself, focus on your job, focus on building and sustaining a good home life, and no matter which way the political winds end up blowing, you'll probably be alright.

#Illuminare - ON FAITH PART 10: NINETY-NINE PLUS ONE

Begins now 👇

1. In the last few weeks, we’ve been treating the subject of faith. There are many dimensions to faith. In this article, we’re going to be looking at faith for venture and innovation. Happy reading. #Illuminare

2. The Jewish society in the day of Jesus wasn’t much different from our society today. The elites were segmented. #Illuminare

3. The first segment was the political class. In the main, this consisted of the two major parties – the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party. #Illuminare

4. The liberals were the Pharisees. The party was populist and largely made up of middleclass businessmen and leaders of the synagogue. #Illuminare

*WORDS OF WISDOM:*

*TO AVOID EMBARRASSMENT AND UNNECESSARY PRESSURE IN LIFE IN 2021*

1. Put your kids in
schools you can afford
because expensive
schools don't
guarantee good
results. Just ensure
they attend a good
affordable school

2. Rent apartments you
can pay for
conveniently. Don’t live
in a house you struggle
to pay yearly. If your 1 or 2
month salary or biz profit
can't pay for your
accommodation, that
accommodation is not for
your level.

3. A man whose wife is
pregnant has good 9
months to prepare,
same as the pregnant
woman in question.
They should even plan
for the worse and only
seek help when they
can’t meet up.

4. Some problems in our
lives don’t just pop up,
if you don't own a
home, we knew we
would pay rents...So its
not an emergency.

5. Let’s plan our lives and
live within our means.
Save more and spend
less and Invest wisely.

Never invest in something
that will make you rich
overnight. No seed grows
to a tree overnight and
provide fruits, not even
tomatoes 🍅.

6. Some women buy food
for their children every
morning before going
to school or even for

Why talking to your people is the most important thing you can do!

For a new acquisition, there's a general template I follow for the 1st 100 days.

The Number One point on that list is PEOPLE

I have failed this once, and succeeded once, let me share why this is most important.

1. You are in spreadsheet mode

When working on a new acquisition you are in the numbers and in the models.

Net working capital true-up
First 6 mo cash flow
Valuation multiple
Realizable EBITDA
etc

Many new acquirers don't come out of this, and lose customers, employees, and $$

2. Verifying the Model

Post acquisition, you are verifying the model in realtime, adjusting, making sure you are good with the bank, investors, yourself.

You are checking actual expenses to see if they match.

Perhaps you are implementing a few easy cost cuts.

People!

3. Your people hold the answers.

Often the people that have been there, can will be happy to give you the scoop on

1. customers
2. service improvement ideas
3. Plant issues
4. under / over staffing
5. needs & investments

They have been there, and usually not been able to share

4. Small Window

There is a small window of time where they are:

1. looking to see if they will now have input
2. willing to speak up more boldly than normal
3. Evaluating how they feel about you
4. Earning (or losing) respect for you as an owner

You cannot miss this window!

Time for my first thread of 2021: Today, How I Measure Myself: a 2020 Report!

With some related thoughts on evaluating management and picking investment managers.

Important note: underlying everything that follows is integrity and trust. Without that, nothing matters.

1) Day to Day: Business Basics

Did I “keep the trains running on time” in 2020? Yes

Do I know how I measure my performance? Yes

How was my performance? Satisfactory

Overall grade: A- (I wasn’t aggressive enough in the markets at the bottom)

Management Thought: Passion not Emotion

Emotional investment decisions tend to be bad investment decisions, but passion keeps somebody in the game - especially when things get difficult

Equally true for investment managers and company management.

Don’t want:

Management Thought 2: Do managers clearly communicate how they are measured and how they evaluate others?

For example, any CEO’s (or investors) job is to allocate capital. Do they measure their effectiveness at allocating capital? How?

Don’t want: “Just need more money”

2) Management Skill: Strategy and Tactics

Few are excellent at both. For example, asset allocation vs trading. Or looking at different asset classes.

Am I humble enough to admit where my circle of competence ends? Do I partner/hire - especially outside that?

2020 grade: A

certain industries, you should genuinely ask yourself if you are a salaried employee whether it is a workplace you should be organizing or if it's a workplace you should quit and stop being complicit in, to be honest.

I don't think you can organize a defense contractor for fair labor rights, I don't think you can organize a monolithic tech surveillance/ad sales behemoth for labor Rights if you're building that union first and foremost for the employees building that very architecture.

This doesn't apply to warehouse workers & production workers & people making low wages doing the most important stuff- you don't have to feel bad for that, everyone is exploiting you & you should organize.

But if youre programming their tools, writing their copy, making slick videos for them, project managing, making good money doing it- youre complicit. I dont say that lightly, Ive done that, I have that blood on my hands. You should quit if that's you, you can't reform this.

This is not anti-organizing, it is asking workers who are organizing to honestly assess the role they play in their company's function which is critical to power. if they follow up these demands re: surveillance in their organizing with a full work stoppage, then we're talking--

[ NLP TRICK FOR HABIT FORMING ]

If you want to form a new habit (like, for example, working out every day, going to sleep at X time, eating in a certain way)

Define what is the OPPOSITE of the habit (Being lazy, letting video games disrupt your sleep, binge eat)

And then...

Associate an uncomfortable feeling to it.

One of the best ones is an upset stomach. Do you remember the last one you had acid reflux? gas? belly cramps? nausea?

Now, once you see the red phone emoji, you're going to 'connect' NOT doing your habit to that feeling.

Ready?

☎️

NOW YOU WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ESCAPE THIS.

For example, upon the mere thought of missing one daily workout, you WILL feel stomach cramps. Even nausea.

The only way to go around it will be to work out. That's it.

Of course, you're not hypnotized or anything...

You have to repeat the association in your mind.

Say, you put an alarm for your workout. And when it goes off, it includes the message:

"Last time you didn't work out, you had nausea for hours"

Even if it isn't true.

Please be aware: Make the 'workout' definition an easy one.

For example, a 'workout' can just be a 15 minute warmup.

So, even if it's a really busy day, you will be able to do your 15 minute routine.

If you can do this for one day, you can do it for two.

If you can do this for one week, you can do it for two.

When your reach 90 days:

You wake up in a dark room. There is a door to your left, a door to your right, and a chest.

You found a wooden sword. You equip it. It smells moldy and low damagey.

You walk through the left door, and into a cavernous room with columns as wide as a large man.

There's also a large man, in a cloak. "Who goes there??" He asks

You say:

"It's just me, chill yo" you say and do a deuce sign with your hand.

"Oh shit I couldn't tell, it's so dark and cinematic in here" he replies. He offers up a chalice.

"I'm Tim, you must be the player character. Wanna drink some magic juice?" he asks.

You chug-a-lug the dragon jizz or whatever the fuck, leaving none for Tim.

"Damn boy you are thirsty lol" says Tim, laughing out loud. "Turn that cup over for a surprise"

You turn it over and notice the base has three buttons that let you choose the magic power you get.

You know, one of the things I've been thinking about during this time of unimaginable grief has been bereavement leave, and how the little time given for grief points to the marginal space human life is given in the world we live in.

I've commented before that so much of the positive thinking or mindfulness seems to be part of a culture that not only personalizes so much struggle but creates this absurd place where your world could be falling apart yet you're encouraged to continuing performing as if it's not

So you have this really absurd existence where it's seen as embarrassing to speak or openly experience the natural and conditioned tragedies of the world, big and small. You lose somebody and after a while, people see it as a drag that you're still sad or not working again.

There's so many cliches around the "get on with it" attitude that sells it as the idea of strength and maturity, when it's really just one of productivity and avoiding making people uncomfortable. I sometimes think kids have it right when they cry openly when they're in pain.

Anyway, I was thinking about how a world can deal with the collective grief of this pandemic. So many lives have been lost, and lives are never singular. For each person, there's connected lives who will be changed forever by the loss. And even worse, the cruel nature of it.

So, yesterday my dad (74) was bored and I was doing a jigsaw puzzle so I said over my shoulder "make a facetime call". He said "How?" like all boomers do when they want YOU to do it, so I said, "Get your iphone and hit facetime". She bought me in the phone and said "Open it how?"

"With your finger!" I said, incredulous. She bought me the phone and we both stared at it. I realised I'd never taught him to use it. Most phones have whatsapp, I felt like a dope. What kind of apocalypse father doesn't teach a boomer how to use facetime?

So I said, "How do you think this works?" he studied it and applied his finger to the phone icon, sideways. He struggled for a while with a big dramatic sigh said "Will you please just open facetime?" Apocalypse son was overjoyed: a Teaching moment just dropped in my lap!

I said, "The little icon is designed to do one thing: facetime. Study the phone, study the icon, figure out what Steve Jobs was thinking when they tried to solve this problem (the facetime icon is also the phone call icon, but I explained that part wasn't relevant)

I went back to my jugsaw puzzle. He was next to me grunting and groaning trying to get the ting. I should say that spatial orientation, process visualisation and order of operations are not things he... intuits, I knew this would be a challenge. But it was a rainy weekend.

Toxic relationships are one of the major stressors responsible for mental health problems and most people don't know the signs of it and keep dragging it at the expense of their own mental health. A thread on it. 1/n

Just because you are in a relationship doesn't mean that your partner/friend can trespass your personal space. There have to be some boundaries set at the very beginning. 2/n

One of the reasons why most business and relations fail is the lack of communication. It's very necessary to have a clear, honest discussion rather than indulging into mind reading and extracting wrong assumptions. 3/n

Any relationship is like a contract where two people have to maintain a certain standard of honesty and commitment. If there are trust issues, it already means something is wrong and a broken promise damages the foundation of a relationship. 4/n

If the partners involved don't see each other on the same pedestal as equals there are bound to be conflicts in their interpersonal domains which might lead one partner assuming an authoritarian attitude and submission by other leading to what we call, 'toxic behavior' 5/n

A few dozen tips/things that have worked for me and you might to implement in your lives.

(Have to justify Gareebo ka James Clear bio somehow. And also generate content for my blog)

/thread starts

1. Think about keystone decisions a lot.

I was talking to a friend yesterday about how his decision to just SIP in MFs and not individual stocks have helped him avoid 100s of subsequent decisions on buying/selling individual stocks, days of research, and also worry.

Now compare this to me who has read a dozen + books on investing, is still confused about when to buy and sell stocks, always paranoid about the market crashes. I could have saved days/months of my life by just SIPing. Probably would have even made more money.

Some keystone decisions for me:
A. Wearing only company tees, a few random colored hoodies. I have 0 interest in fashion. I don't want to waste my time thinking about what to wear every day.

B. Saying No by default to most catchups, webinars, random engagements.

I don't want to think about who to say yes to and who to decline and feel guilty later. Think about all your keystone decisions. They will save you months over your lifetime.

@republic alwyz stand for truth bcz
#RepublicWontCompromise

#RepublicWontCompromise
bcz @republic is feerless

#RepublicWontCompromise
bcz @republic has gutts

#RepublicWontCompromise
bcz @republic can fight against injustuce

#RepublicWontCompromise
bcz @republic don't compromise with fake one

Those of you who believe in free will. I have some questions for you.

1. When you suddenly wake up at 2am and can't stop thinking about work and can't go back to bed for hours and hours because your brain won't shut off. Would you say you have free will during that time?

2. When you really don't want to do something but you know you have to do it so you do it, would you consider that to be free will?
For instance suppose you're a parent and you've got a sick kid vomiting in their bed, all night. Then they wake you up at 6am hungry and needy.

3.Suppose there's something you know you should do but just aren't doing it. Like getting out of bed on time, or doing exercise, or cleaning the toilet. You know you should and you want to, but you just aren't. So if you want to but aren't doing it, where's the free will in that?

4. Pick a random number from 1-1000. Got one? Is picking something at random free will? You're trying really hard for it to be random, and so you blank out your mind and wait for the first number to pop in. How is what you picked free will? It's a complete throw of the dice...

5. When you do something consistently every day for over a decade, and you know you'll be doing it for another decade to come. Is it really free will when you decide to do it today?

10 things that I wish to had learned earlier in life:

1) You're not going to be rich by selling your workforce. Instead, create value for society through a business and own equity on it. (more @naval)

2) Workout 5 days/week is easier than trying to be fit. Find a hobby that burns calories, don't miss it twice. Enjoy. @atosjiujitsuhq

3) Find a reason to be grateful every day is easier than the search for happiness.

4) Great books give you superpowers.

THREAD: meet my brother

Unsurprisingly, being locked down over Xmas and New Year turns thoughts to family – and to my brother who died almost 14 years ago in a motorbike accident when he was 39.

First some context: Andreas was 8 years older than me – big difference when we were kids, but we were close as adults and instant messaged every day (yahoo messenger! remember that?!).

Last week I found some of the message chats we used to have that I collated for his funeral & they made me laugh out loud and miss him all over again. So I wanted to share some of my funny, quirky brother with the world – here goes…

He worked at Yahoo doing difficult coding. He loved coffee (with milk). He was also very funny.

He was a computer wizard – there was nothing he couldn’t code. I was and remain a rank amateur compared to him.