1. TLDR: What will it take for Pakistan to pressure the Taliban into a ceasefire? Pressure, concessions, clear priorities, & ultimately cooperation from Pakistan. A very tall order.

2. Many Afghanistan policy proposals require some action by Pakistan. But as usual there is a disconnect where Washington believes it can demand Pakistan "do more" without providing much in return and Islamabad thinks half-measures will suffice. It is a destructive dance.

3. Pakistan helped bring the Taliban to the negotiating table in Doha but stopped there & instead opted to tacitly support the Taliban’s bargaining position to enter into a ceasefire only after further concessions from Kabul & US troops leave.

4. The Taliban are overplaying their hand by delaying talks & escalating violence, while Pakistan is underplaying its hand by refusing to add pressure.

5. Why won’t Pakistan further pressure the Taliban?
- What’s in it for me? (sensitive to "do more")
- Less influence over current TB leadership.
- Scared of blowback from sectarian groups, TTP (so they say).
- Some sympathy for group.

I have for the past one week been forced to put off tweets about weapons systems and focus instead on the international conspiracy. I thought today would be different. Apparently not. Media outlets are saying its time for Peace Talks with Boko Haram. Are these people for real?

If this is coming from some mediocre outlet one can easily disregarded. But when mainstream media is saying things like

''With options limited for fighting terrorists negotiations may be the best remaining alternative. How stupid of an idea is that? First of all Boko Haram

is not winning. Their goal of Islamizing Nigeria or set up a caliphate has clearly failed. The more cowardly attacks they mount against civilians the more obvious their desperation. They know they cannot hope to win. The number of jihadi groups fighting to overthrow

national governments and setup a state has grown steadily over the past decade. Sitting down with a murderous jihadi group that does not recognize or abide by the Geneva Convention is as good as recognizing and legitimizing them. Its that simple. I sincerely hope the Nigerian

government do not yield to these carefully planted ideas. Yesterday Amnesty received a $750,000 warchest. Today Nigerian media is talking about negotiating peace talks with a non state entity. Lemme try and explain the dynamic implications of sitting down with terrorist groups.

An explanation of what is going on with the Salmond enquiry.

Alex Salmond was the leader of the SNP and was first minister of Scotland, but he stepped down from this position after the SNP failed to secure the Scottish Referendum.

Nicola Sturgeon took his place.

Nicola was basically Salmonds underling and he was her mentor. They were very close.

Everything after this point is all speculation/allegations, so take everything with a pinch of salt until the facts come out.

If the SNP ever allow them to come out.

A rift had been growing for many years between Salmond and Sturgeon as he felt she was not progressing enough towards an independent Scotland, probably because the party focuses mainly on woke bullshit and hate crime laws for memes.

Salmond hinted a return to the party.

Around about this time, with very convenient timing, Salmond got MeToo'd by several women within the SNP, this resulted in a massive police investigation, seriously huge, with the cops interviewing around 400 people.

Salmond was charged with several counts of sexual assault.

The case goes to trial, which results in Salmond being aquitted of all charges.

This is usually where such things would end, but it turns out this exposed everyone to a rabbit hole of alleged corruption within the SNP at it's highest levels.

TEXT OF THE PRESS CONFERENCE ADDRESSED BY THE HON. MINISTER OF INFORMATION AND CULTURE, ALHAJI LAI MOHAMMED,ON THE ONGOING APC MEMBERSHIP REGISTRATION EXERCISE ...IN ORO, KWARA STATE, ON MONDAY, FEB. 15TH 2021

#Thread 👇

Good morning gentlemen of the press.

2. As you are aware, the All Progressives Congress (@OfficialAPCNg ) membership registration started in Kwara State on Feb. 9th 2021.

Ahead of my registration this morning at my polling unit, PU 006, Oro Ward 2, we had sent out our people to monitor the process to ensure compliance with the guidelines stipulated by the party.

The reports from our monitoring teams are out, and I wish to inform you, gentlemen, that sadly, the whole exercise did not comply with the stipulated guidelines.

3. The guidelines stipulate consultation with all stakeholders by the Registration Officials from Abuja. After the botched attempt to have a meeting of stakeholders, due to orchestrated violence...

Tomorrow on #HMD2021 we remember victims of the genocidal Nazi regime and of the many acts of other governments in the years since and in today. As it’s @Humanists_UK 125th anniversary and a year for humanist history, I also want to think about the Nazis' humanist victims. 1/9

In 1933 the Nazi government banned humanist and other freethinking and secular groups. Hitler boasted he'd won his ‘fight against the atheist movement’ and ‘stamped it out’. That year Hitler made many speeches saying that only Christian organisations could be permitted 2/9

The largest organisation that found itself banned was the Deutscher Freidenkerbund. It had 600,000 members and was founded just 15 years before @Humanists_UK. Its headquarters were confiscated and given to the Protestant churches, who converted it into a Christian mission 3/9

This is Max Sievers, who was the last chair of the Deutscher Freidenkerbund. He was already in exile in Belgium at the time the ban came into effect. He fled to the USA in 1939 but was denied a visa and returned. He was guillotined for treason in Brandenburg Prison in 1943. 4/9

Humanist culture had long been thriving in Germany (even the English word humanism came to us in the 19th century from the German Humanismus) but the attempted annihilation of it as a culture was very successful, as it was across Europe by both Fascism and Marxist-Leninism 5/9

Sources : DMK President MK Stalin is completely under the control of the senior Maran, Kalanidhi. Kalanidhi, with an intention to get total control of the cable distribution business, is manipulating Stalin 1/n

that he was the one who ensured Rajini doesn’t enter into politics.

Stalin, a gullible person, has taken the bait say sources. Kindly recall Rajini’s press meet on 3rd December 2020 when he said, he will start a political party. 2/n

He said, “he had commitments of film production”. The upcoming movie “Annatha” is a @sunpictures production.

Sources add, two months back, Kalanithi Maran had assured MK Stalin that, he will ensure that @rajinikanth will never start a political party. 3/n

Rajinikanth’s Annatha movie shoot was held at Ramoji Rao Film City, Hyderabad a heavily guarded place. It was sanitized several times, before the shooting commenced. 4/n

It perplexes medical experts, how one would get infected with Covid19 when, persons who were not tested for Covid are never allowed inside the shoot spot.

The morning was glorious like no other, for the August Sun was shining on Nehru-ji as it had never done before.

Wearing his trademark jacket, not a crease or a spot, and a lusty rose in the buttonhole, Nehru-ji looked as fresh as the morning dew, and this despite the midnight.

For, at the stroke of midnight, Nehru-ji had stepped on the podium, and had eloquently orated his speech, Tryst with Destiny.

Just like his intellectual descendant, Shashi-ji, Nehru-ji had spoken in English about India because his audience, like Shashi-ji's, was elsewhere.

As Nehru-ji basked in the morning Sun, he was envisioning - a man like Nehru-ji does not think, he envisions - the audience for the day, a day dedicated to his achievements since the speech.

Nehru-ji took out his Air Pods and instructed Siri in his clipped accent to play a song.

The title song from the movie Golmaal soon vibrated into his ears - no, not the one by Kishore Kumar for that was still far into the future, but the more contemporary one by Vishal Dadlani.

Unlike the blockheaded protagonists of the movie, Nehru-ji did not dance to the song.

Later, Nehru-ji was seated on a massive throne like that king of ancient India who he admired, Great the Akbar, and was flanked on both sides by celebrities he had personally known.

A Congress worker tied a pigeon to a rocket and launched it, signaling the start of celebrations.

Bellingcat and its investigative partners have established that Russian politician, Vladimir Kara Murza, was followed by a specialist FSB team prior to his suspected poisonings in 2015 and 2017.

Members of the same FSB team, some of whom have medical and chemical weapons backgrounds, tailed Alexey Navalny before he was poisoned with a Novichok substance in August 2020.

Kara-Murza is a well-known Russian politician, film-maker and an outspoken critic of Russian president Vladimir Putin. The circumstances around his suspected poisonings have long remained a mystery.

Travel details of FSB team members show they followed Kara-Murza on a campaign trip outside Moscow that ended less than 48 hours before his first poisoning incident in May 2015.

Kara-Murza recovered in the US before returning to Russia. Yet the same team began tailing him again just five months after he came back. He was poisoned for the second time in February 2017.

BRITSH ARMY HEADCOUNT REDUCTION (Thread)
Looking back at personnel cuts made in 2010, a reduced Army of 82,000 didn’t help Britain regain its financial strength, it simply signified a hollowing-out of our ability to defend ourselves.
(1 of 25)

It destroyed the credibility of David Cameron’s Coalition Government then and even more so in hindsight. It was military illiteracy on a grand scale. The problem wasn’t so much the reduction itself, but the fact that there was no real strategy behind it, no future plan.
(2 of 25)

Back in 2010, the UK's involvement Iraq and Afghanistan didn’t really serve our national interests (See Ben Barry’s book). If these conflicts were sub-optimal uses of the Army, they raised the important question of what the Army’s underlying raison d’être should be.
(3 of 25)

We hope the Integrated Review will provide a concrete response to this. In the meantime, the Integrated Operating Concept has been much talked about, but we have been left in the dark about what it signifies in terms of strategic priorities and a reconfigured force.
(4 of 25)

The resulting strategy will obviously be threat-driven with Russia, China, North Korea and Iran representing near-peer threats and Islamic terror groups in Africa and the Middle East posing an asymmetric threat. This suggests a mix of high-end and light forces.
(5 of 25)

Nigerian Armed Forces Remembrance Day.

In Nigeria, Armed Forces Day, also known as Remembrance Day, is celebrated on January 15th. The day is marked with a Remembrance Day parade at the Cenotaph in Abuja and in the 36 state capitals. The ceremony includes a 21 gun salute, playing of the Last Post,

a minute's silence, laying of wreaths and release of pigeons to symbolise peace.

Officers and men of the Nigerian Armed Forces have fought in various wars and taken part in many peace keeping operations, defensive duties and internal security duties. These include

Wars including:

The First World War
The Second World War
The Nigerian Civil War

Peace keeping/enforcement operations in

The Congo
Tanzania
Liberia
Sierra Leone
Lebanon
Darfur
The former Yugoslavia
Mali

Defensive duties including

The Bamileke Rebellion
Chadian Invasion (1982/83)
The Bakassi Peninsula Territorial Dispute with Cameroon

Internal Security duties including

The Tiv Rebellion
The Western Region Crisis
The Niger Delta Crisis (1992-2009)
The Boko Haram Insurgency.

In what was United Bengal (modern day West Bengal+Bangladesh) back in 1941, Muslims were 56% of the population, and today they are approximately about 67% of the population. If you go back to the early 20th century or the late 19th century, Muslims weren't even a majority.

This

example of Bengal is what has been happening across the whole of the Indian sub-continent, albeit at a slower or faster pace as the case may be region to region, but the fact remains that the change has been unidirectional= As time goes by, the proportion of Muslims increases in

a given region and the proportion of Hindus goes down. Project the numbers out into 50 or 60 years and you have multiple states/regions of India with a Muslim plurality or outright majority. Project the numbers out to a century or so and it's difficult to argue how Hindus can

maintain cultural/political dominance in the long run. Some people like to say, "Oh well so what. Numbers don't matter, what have you achieved at 80% of the population which you're going to achieve at 90%!".

This is faulty thinking, because the direction of change itself is

the demgoraphic sense is quite critical of whether you are expanding or retreating civilisation. The more people you have relative to the enemy, the more the chances that you will adamant about taking over more territory. The less people you have relative to the enemy, the more

THREAD

1)
This has been making a lot of noise among #Iran’s netizens.

Hamas co-founder Mahmoud al-Zahder said in a recent interview that in 2006 Qassem Soleimani gave them $22 million in cash.

This is how the regime spends the Iranian people’s

2)
Why is this important?
The West may further appease Iran’s regime & the mullahs are demanding the U.S. lift sanctions in order to gain access to billions of dollars.

Reminder:
Iran Spends $16 Billion Annually to Support Terrorists and Rogue

3)
"As long as Iran has money, that means we here have money, too," said Lebanese Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah.

Obama's 2015 Iran nuclear deal provided $150 billion in credit & $1.8 billion in cash for Tehran's

4)
Feb. 16, 2020
Islamic Jihad Secretary-General Ziad al-Nakhaleh

Qassem Soleimani personally supervised the transfer of weapons, missiles & technology into Gaza.

5)
Pro-Iran Lebanese political analyst Anis Al-Naqqash

#Iran armed [Hamas & Islamic Jihad] & provided tech assistance to the Houthis in

There hv been concerted efforts by members of the Oyo APC to rewrite history. They repeat so often the lie that Ibadan was a peaceful place bfr Seyi Makinde took over office on May 29, 2019. It has become a case of, repeat a lie often enough, & it begins to sound like the truth.

Immediately after he took over the government in May 2011, a violent clash erupted. The bloody clash described as "a recurring decimal" in the state saw one dead and about 10 injured.

By June 2012, there was another clash. This time between the NURTW and the PDP. The story was that the NURTW were angry that PDP members were singing Arikesola's praises. You can read the report for yourself.

May 2013 - Violence erupted on Thursday in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital, when known members of the ACN and the NURTW made to disrupt a political gathering put together by the leader of Accord Party, Senator Rashidi Ladoja.

August 2013- No fewer than eleven herdsmen have been killed in the last six weeks in some parts of Oke Ogun area; Otu, Ikomu, Igbo-Ora, Iwere-Ile, Iganna, Ilaju and Ado-Awaye.

NS2 a response to Mr Wolfgang Munchau. Although I agree on a number of points with WM in his recent @spectator piece-I disagree with his central contention that NS2 is about more gas for Germany. There is no more gas & what gas there is not for Germany. Lengthy thread to follow.

1.WMs @EuroBriefing article has swallowed a huge dose of Russian (and indeed German) propaganda. Throughout the article WM refers to Nord Stream 2 as being vital to Germany because of the need for more Russian gas. This is

2.The key point about NS2 is that it is a diversionary pipeline. There is no new gas. This huge political effort by Russia and Germany to deliver NS2 will not bring a single extra molecule of gas to Germany.

3.What is more the gas destined to land on the German Baltic coast at Greifswald (in AM's constituency) will substantially go not to Germany. The connecting pipeline for NS2, called EUGAL has the same capacity as NS2 (55bcm) and heads eastward to the Czech Republic.

4.Our friendly gas propagandists may well say that in December 2019 Gazprom signed a gas transit contract with the Ukrainian state owned energy company Naftogaz for 40bcm a year from 2021-2024. So with NS2 there will be more gas. NS2 plus the gas transited via Ukraine.

(1/11) This term, I’ve taught a seminar @IslamicSt_UniFR called “Little Ice Ages and Mighty Microbes. What Environmental History Can Tell Us about the #MiddleEast”. These are some of the things that I’ve learned. A thread. #twitterstorians #environmentalhistory

(2/11) The Arab invasion of #Iran led to a cotton boom – until the 11th century. Then a “big chill” made agriculture detract. Leading Sunni scholars moved elsewhere &bimportant madrasas closed. This helped to eventually convert Iran into Shi’i-majority lands in the 16th century.

(3/11) The “golden age” of the Ottoman Empire saw the conquest of Egypt. With grain (incl. rats/fleas) now being shipped in huge quantities from Alexandria to #Istanbul, the capital became a constant “plague hub” (which, in turn, dramatically increased Ottoman medical knowledge).

(4/11) At the same time, several #Ottoman provinces were already operating at the ecological limit while still being forced to provide Istanbul with animals. When the Little Ice Age hit these semiarid areas in the late 16th century, significant rebellions & crises ensued.

(5/11) Not only humans suffered but animals, too. Epizootics killed livestock in 18th century #Egypt, which made peasants become more dependent on large landholders. Consequently, “changes in nature of rural labor degraded the lives of both beast and man.”

Iranian Reformist Front (Jebheye Eslathalabane Iran) was officially founded yesterday in Jamaran, Khomeini's historic house near Tehran.

The founding meeting elected Behzad Nabavi as an interim head since he is oldest.

And also 5 people as a committee to draft the IRF's by-laws

The five are:

1- Outspoken Tehran MP @mah_sadeghi
2- Faraj Komijani, politician with a base in an official teachers union
3- Ali Bagheri (low-key politician)
4- @MansooriAzar , noted reformist politician
5- Rouhani's ex-VP @mowlaverdi

Some more pictures of the meeting.

The next meeting of the group is on Wednesday and will be held virtually.

The top question remains whether and who (and how many candidates) to run for the coming #IranElections2021

The founding statement says the reformists will run a single candidate agreed by all reformist parties but only if elections are to be "free, legal, competitive, just and constitutional"... which is obviously not what's going to happen!

The founding statement also includes big demands like call for a referendum to revise the constitution. But as usual these big words aren't followed by any actions.