Substantial analysis of @BenMarten regarding the mortality in Germany. Particularly noticeable is the "excess mortality" in December. Ben states that "lockdown deaths" could play an important role here. I would like to elaborate my thoughts on that. ⬇️Mini-Thread⬇️

1/: Scientific integrity is a valuable commodity. What happens when external funders take influence on both scientific™ findings and media coverage can be seen in the current global crisis. It is time to return to the fundamental principles of science: ⬇️A thread⬇️

2/: In this thread, I will roughly explain why #empiricism and #repeatability are important factors for science and why model approaches should be interpreted with caution (and that is what I am saying as a modeller).

3/: I am aware that the principle of science is far more profound than explained in this thread, but this thread is written for laymen on @twitter and not for the lecture room. Also, within the scientific community, there is no clear consensus about this topic either.

4/: In recent years, I have been working on complex food production systems that increase food production and show high nutrient and water use efficiencies. I have thus been involved in plant growth experiments and holistic system modelling activities (@MATLAB, @AnyLogicCo).

5/: The plant growth experiments included environmental factors, #metagenomics (i.e. microbial genome sequencing), flow regulations etc. and the modelling covered the prediction on non-existing systems based on experimental and literature data.

Thread on Invisible China: Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell's illuminating and scary deep dive into rural China's ills and stark inequality. No matter how bad you think it is, it's worse there---more like a developing country than a global superpower. 1/n

2/Rozelle rolled up his sleeves to understand the CN most only see from plane or train windows. Issues in health and education, bringing down human capital of 300m rural Chinese, could trap it in middle income status.

Think future like Mexico/Turkey now, not Korea/Taiwan

3/Most focus on impressive elite universities and high schools topping int'l rankings, but CN average education levels are abysmal.

Only 30% of China's working age pop completed high school--last place for all middle income countries, worse than many poor countries!

4/TIL a startling fact: school in CN through grade 9 became free & mandatory only in 2006! Even today high school is not free in CN! Want to go through grade 12? Pay fees of 10-15x incomes for poor rural areas. Instead they drop out to work unskilled jobs. Xi has promised to fix

5/No country has escaped middle income trap below 50% HS grad rates, and avg for successful countries (now high income) is 76%. Why? HS skills not important for repetitive assembly jobs, but w/o ability to learn & basic skills in math and reading, can't do more productive jobs

Can anyone fathom out how weapons like this make their way into the hands of terrorists in Nigeria?

These weapons are in boxes marked with serial numbers. Where there are serial numbers there are invoices or receipts. Which means it was imported. This is worrisome and raise questions about where the terror groups are sourcing their heavy weapons.

Weapons proliferation was once linked to the fall of Gadaffi. Libya was at one point the main source of arms to terror groups on the continent. For those unaware of the dynamics ill give a brief explanation:

When NATO bombed the crap out of the Gadaffi regime in 2011, Libya lost control of a large part of the stockpile it had amassed in over 40 years. The CIA made several calls for ground troops to be deployed to secure Gadaffi's amoury from falling into the hand of rebel groups.

The French kicked against sending ground troops, saying it will give the impression Libya was under a NATO occupation, Its just not worth the political capital to do so. The CIA made this call TWICE and TWICE it was shut down. The logic was securing those sites

Nigeria's burgeoning defence industry is zooming ahead.

DICON has secured a contract to produce 152 MRAPs for the army. As well as six million rounds of small arms ammunition.

EZEGWU MRAP

DICONs R&D has been up and going. The army plans to test several technology demonstrators in the field. If they pass the field testing DICON will go into mass production of the equipments.

Anti drone jamming system made by DEMFAS aerospace systems Nigeria....Made in Nigeria Proudly Nigeria.
The mobile gun is an ideal anti-drone rifle that can be used when UAVs and drones are visually detected

The drone can be tracked even at long distances through a special binocular. When the UAV is located, the rifle and antennas with horizontal and vertical polarization are pointed towards the approaching drone and immediately block it....zap !! No this is not science fiction

PROFOCE ARA MRAP 2

Profoce Ara ''Thunder'' Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicle.

NEW:
BBC has seen the official internal management data for the new post Brexit freight border - roll on roll off lorry outbound flows to EU now at 98% of last February - though was 73% in January... officials say “back to normal”...

That is reference to lorry flow rates - which is what Cabinet Office key committees most concerned about post Brexit in terms of knock on social impact for supplies of everything. Government now confident its “reasonable worst case scenario” of 7k lorries in kent won’t happen...

That is not same as saying trade has normalised - drawing on multiple sources - ferry manifests, Kent checks, french official data - the level of empty lorries on the short straits is around 50%, and was normally around 30%... ...

traffic here was 67% normal in Jan - 82% in feb

Combining those and you get to around 2000 fewer laden export trucks a day in January, still notable fall now. Officials say much was displaced into last year by stockpilers. On other hand French transport sources suggest the higher value Tunnel export empties more like 50-60%

Officials have been tracking the commodity codes on the ferry manifests and have distinguished between freight flows hit so far in 2021 by general COVID downturn - eg clothing and apparel, and post Brexit transition - agriculture, food and groupage

@atsumori5834 An Argentinian variant of Italian fascism with stuff from German National Socialism that took an unexpected turn and led to a globalist and progressive ideology. Menemism was a conservative variant but not faithful to the doctrine and from that new generation arose Kirchnerism.

The Kirchnerists are antifascists and "supercapitalists", which is a term used by Juan Perón to refer to a deformed, monstrous style of government, the result of the fusion between Marxism and Capitalism (Globalism).

The Kirchneristas dubbed themselves Peronism and little by little they are making the orthodox Peronists treated like outdated garbage and surely soon persecuted as if they were authentic NationalSocialists. A tragedy.

Peronism is full of progressives, globalists, left liberals, feminists, zionists...
Left: Juan Perón, creator of the Peronism movement.
Right: Alberto Fernandez, actual leader of the Peronist movement. Pathetic.

In addition, the Kirchnerists give our sovereignty to the Chinese, and they do not recognize the value of our Japanese brothers. But Perón admired the Japanese a lot. Carlos Menem also maintained excellent relations with Japan