Important update regarding the 'Trades I liked' chart:

I'M GOING NAKED 😱

Don't worry, there is method behind the madness 😉 This is a thread, grab a coffee or a glass of wine. Or you could just have an Irish Coffee instead, cover all bases😊

I used to take trades all the time off various levels & vwaps. All these give off some great trades! However more recently, the majority of my trades have been off the naked bars. Not a lot beats trading wicks for me, it's a simple setup that repeats all day long!

As Matt used to say in the room "If you're not using something, why the fuck is it on your chart"? I found myself thinking the same thing tonight when explaining my chart to someone.

Now altho I haven't been taking that many trades off levels or vwaps, I still want to know where they are. E.G. If I'm long & I can see we're going to run into the PSH (Previous Session High) or Day 3 VWAP, I'll think abt adding-on (to bring target below) or killing trade there.

Context is so important. The 15m chart with the levels and vwaps on give me what I need to see (the overall picture with where the potential road blocks for the day will be). For the 1m chart, I don't actually need them on there.

Ok, here's the $CRESY thread (also posted to https://t.co/fxuIdqDOtQ, where the format may be a bit easier to read).

I haven't been this excited about a position in a long time. I think $CRESY is worth far more than its $6 trading price today. Here's why...

Here's what we have...

More than 1.3M acres of wholly owned SA farmland (beef, corn, soy, sugarcane

62.4% stake in a truly impressive real estate portfolio - 15 malls, 4 skyscrapers, 3 luxury hotels, nearly 1000 acres of land in Buenos Aires and Montevideo, the Buenos Aires fairground, 2 convention centers, a consumer bank, a commercial bank, and an arena, and a US REIT.

A 50% stake in Argentina's biggest ag exchange, and a 22.5% stake in an Ag fintech platform that just raised more money than any Latin American agtech startup in history from Bay Area VCs.

The farming segment itself is profitable, and with the prices of all the commodities they produce skyrocketing, despite more than doubling since the March lows, CRESY is still trading lower YoY and seriously lagging its fundamentals.

Earnings are set to explode.

1) As the miserable year of 2020 reaches its end, it's time to return to the offices of Hindsight Capital LLC.

For those unfamiliar, this great, albeit imaginary, hedge fund invests with the benefit of a style guaranteed to beat all others: hindsight

2) As such perfect vision would allow infinite returns, certain limits are imposed on Hindsight Capital’s managers:

🚫It can't trade during the year
🚫It can't use leverage
🚫It can't invest in individual stocks
✅It must make broader or sectoral

3) Hindsight can, however, make “long-short” trades.

But the hedge fund must be able to explain how someone might have made such a trade based on only what they knew at the time. Foreknowledge of earthquakes and hurricanes, for instance, is not allowed

4) As for the pandemic, Hindsight Capital’s managers were aware of the novel coronavirus in Wuhan and had little difficulty in predicting how the world would react and what its effects would be.

That was crucial, as will be seen in this thread

5) Hindsight Capital always bases itself in the country with the year’s weakest currency.

In 2020, that was Brazil, giving its managers a great excuse to live out the pandemic from an office overlooking Ipanema Beach

Since @SEBI_India has imposed new decisions for peak margins, making Retail Traders suffer the most and big players take advantage by doing easy manipulation of the market.
#SEBIagainstRetailTraders

After this decision trading in derivative segments will be done by a handful of big players. It seems like they are working in favor of HNIs or big players in the stock market.
#SEBIagainstRetailTraders

It is a worldwide practice that more than 90% of trade volume comes from retail traders(small traders), who utilize leverages from brokers in order to make money from the stock market.
#SEBIagainstRetailTraders

Since the start of the lockdown period, there was only 1 industry that was still grooming, this was indeed the stock market. Many people who lost their jobs, businesses during this tough time, saw a ray of hope in trading to support their livelihood in a dignified way.

It seems their last hope to earn livelihood in a dignified manner is also fading away.
#SEBIagainstRetailTraders

As I completed 23 years on this lively planet and 5 years in this stock market, I want to share my 23 mistakes of my Investing journey.

A thread🧵

1. Quick Money
I begin with the stock market in a thought that it is an easy and fastest way to make money. Initially, I begin with buy and hold strategy but I felt, that is not what I came for and so I initiated with trading and in few months, (1/n)

I made some good returns, in the next succeeding month I lost my profit and my initial capital. (due to demonetization).

One quote revamp my mind “Rome was not built in a day and Hiroshima and Nagasaki were destroyed in a day” (2/n)

2. Taking tips from News Channels
I lost my faith in 2016 due to such a heavy loss and embark to take tips from TV channels and follow them on daily basis. I don’t know about others but this step failed me miserably. (3/n)

TV channels are just for TRPs, if they don’t provide tips, viewers shift to another channel, while you know the rest.(4/n)

🚨Weekly Market Update #1🚨

I go through a daily and weekly process that helps me maintain a higher level perspective on markets and not lose the forest for the trees.

I use @KoyfinCharts for essentially this entire process - thank you @koyfman!

Time for a thread 👇

1/ Domestic Markets

Note: I look at many time periods for everything presented here. For convenience I show trailing 3 months in this thread.

Nasdaq outperformance vs. the S&P and Dow is narrower when compared to T6M. Over the T12 period, the Nasdaq has outperformed by 26%.

2/ European (+Brazil) Markets

Germany (DAX) has lagged both the French (CAC) and UK (FTSE) markets. Including Brazil (Ibovespa) here - it has been outperforming Europe.

The DAX and IBOV have fully recovered from the March 2020 drawdown while the CAC and FTSE continue to recover

3/ Asian Markets

The KOSPI (Korea) has been on absolute fire, with the NKY close behind. The SHCOMP has lagged of late.

The KOSPI has also outperformed since the pandemic, with the NKY and SHCOMP lagging by 17% and 21%, respectively, over the T12 period (HSI is breakeven).

4/ US Sectors

Energy and Financials have been on a tear lately (economic recovery). Materials have also performed well, playing the recovery.

Technology and Consumer Discretionary have led over the T12 period, but are in the bottom half T3M.

Healthcare has held up strong.

Solid session on 🇮🇳 by @balajis and @naval via @joinClubhouse

Key takeaways... 👇

1/ India will be the biggest beneficiary of the move to #remotework. Three factors driving this: the English-savvy population, willingness for companies out West to hire from a global talent pool, and the large STEM-educated workforce.

2/ India has the potential to become a media superpower. We have Bollywood, the massive audience, the content creators. They foresee India churning out media that isn't uniquely Indian, but one that resonates with global audiences.

3/ The government isn't doing foreign investors any favors with the stringent capital controls they've put in place. Additional capital gain taxes, overbearing KYC controls, and cumbersome paperwork are a few factors dissuading foreign capital from entering Indian markets.

4/ Where you choose to live, incorporate your company, and target your audience could be thought out and optimized for. They don't need to all be in the same region anymore. The world is flatter than ever before.

As 2020 draws to a close, here's a few posts for my 2020 annual review! 👇

Focus is on the types of trade I made, the underlyings traded, & strategy outcomes, rather than just showing the overall % return

To kick it off, below is the 2020 equity curve of my main account 💰

So what did I trade? As you can see, Options have significantly contributed to 2020 Realized & Unrealized profits, with almost two thirds of gains coming from this asset class. Otherwise I have some net gains on short & longer term Stocks, and a loss in Futures 😊

I traded around 70 underlyings in 2020; here they are, ordered by % contribution to my annual Realized & Unrealized gains

$CRWD, $NET, $WYNN & $FSLY are my top winners! 🚀

I made a bit more than 200 opening trades in 2020. By far the most common are Long Stock and Short Put trades

Best performer = Short Puts, with an 84% win rate! Another 7% were rolled into new strikes, and only 1.43% were a loss 😮

Win rate on long stock is lowest. This is skewed as I’m only using Realized gains, and most of my profitable stock positions are still open

THREAD: Unless you think $XRP is actually going to zero (spoiler- it's not), it doesn't make much sense at all to sell here. "But Credible, I can put the money elsewhere and it will make me money! Why hold this rotten, centralized, scam coin! It's just going to go down (cont.)

forever!" Well good sir, let me put this into perspective for you. Even if you think $XRP will never see ATH, or even past $1 again, chances we see a dead-cat bounce at the bare minimum, are high. Aside from the fact that we are now in a full fledged bull market, we can (cont.)

see that sell pressure on XRP is waning at this time- not just on the BTC pairing, but also the USD pairing. Bullish divs are popping up everywhere, across all TF's. This indicates that at the very LEAST, we will likely see a dead cat bounce here shortly (if not reversal) (cont.)

. So, lets take the chart below for example. If you hold here, even a dead cat bounce to .40 would increase the value of your position by near 100%. If you moved your funds elsewhere, say ETH for example, you would need to ride ETH from current prices of $750 to (cont.)

$1500 just to get the same rate of return. Or, you would need to ride BTC from $28,000 to $56,000 to get the same rate of return. Do you see what I am trying to say? The ONLY reason you would be selling here is if you think that there is actually a decent chance that $XRP (cont.)

(1) BELGIUM: @alexanderdecroo @GLBouchez @ducarmedenis Number of false PCR positives of asymptomatic people still high and obviously not showing right picture. Deaths way down and show the absolute uselessnes of mass testing.

(2) On top of that, overall mortality during expected winter resurgence not nearly as high as during first wave whatever the media may tell you. Excess mortality clearly above average for ONE MONTH in autumn.

(3) Graph missing last month so would be even more normal. The BE curve follows all models for new viruses that we saw ONE YEAR AGO. Measures have had extremely limited impact - arguable made the curves sharper and harder to deal with for hospitals (pp locked up = indoors).

(4) Mortality in BE within the usual threshold (Covid replacing influenza) for at least one month. Compare below to the narrative and you see that the virus is well on its way to becoming endemic. The winter "wave" has been over for a long time.

(5) Include in this the faulty PCR (most estimate 35% false positives and many declared + after they died, or when they died from other conditions, and a couple of things become obvious:

1/7: I understand that #Ripple's selling concerns many people. But the question is... how do you responsibly distribute Ripple's 50B $XRP? Ripple holding so much #XRP is one of the biggest complaints about XRP and why so many people don't like it and may also prevent ODL adoption

2/7: Escrow was introduced to help this, but that $XRP is still in Ripple's custody. They really need to distribute it. But how? Ideally, it should already have already been done years ago, but you can't go back in time to do it. @JoelKatz has talked about this challenge before.

3/7: So we're against them holding it and we're also against them selling it. So how do they distribute it? They can't give it away, who gets it, how do they choose? Giveaways this late in the game also negatively affect prices. Higher supply = lower demand = lower prices.

4/7: Ideally, they would only distribute this to Financial Institutions for use in #ODL, but unfortunately, there's not enough demand for the utility of XRP through ODL. Perhaps because Finacial Institutions don't want to hold it/use it due to regulatory uncertainty.

5/7: As I see it, there are a few options for distribution:
a) Incentivize the use of ODL despite regulatory clarity - such as giving incentives to #Moneygram,
b) Lock it back up in escrow, effectively reducing supply, but giving #Ripple custody.

After trading profitably for a living every year since 2000, in late Jan of 2018 I lost 500k in an hour in the XIV blowup. It destroyed me mentally. I Couldn’t think clearly for 18 months. Couldn’t stop “trying to get my money back” which just made it worse.

Finally, I shut it all down scared shitless that I couldn’t trade any more. I had to protect what was left of what I had built over the previous years. The village of idiots in my head had somehow taken over the castle.

I had to dive deep and fully accept the financial loss and so many other life losses that I was carrying with bitterness and anger to find neutral again. My career had become my compulsion to fix the wrongs of the past, my opiate that had huge hangovers.

Thru the painful process of true awareness of what I was doing, I started day trading 100 shares of AAPL just to keep connected to my roots. Not thinking, not caring just trading my feel of the day from all that I had seen over the years.

Not caring was liberating. It felt so good to trade and simply not give a shit if I made money or not. I just flipped 100 shares around based on my feel of the tape and I did this for 3 months while I licked all my wounds trying to figure out how to let it all go. Summer 2019.

A thread about my thoughts on the market:

$SPX has a rising wedge, looks really weak.

$DXY is bottoming with the short interesting going higher and higher.

$UVXY building a big base. Last time we saw this was in February.

$RUT has hit respected trendline from 1998.

$DJI about to hit the respect trendline from 1929 and 2000. These were two secular bull markets that ended.

Big tech looking really weak.

$NVDA about to break down.

$MSFT had a breakout failure, which is usually very bearish.

$FB has already broken down.

$APPL looks to have a double top. Also went outside of bull channel.

Back in 2000, there was a late rotation into $RUT and it broke out of a base and this spelled the top for the $NDX.
We are seeing the similar pattern here in 2021.

Short interest for $DXY is sky-rocketing. Such an extreme positioning has led to a rally in the past. A $DXY rally is a big threat to equities and precious metals.

R/T
@MacroCharts

A coda to my tweets this week on #uranium contracting and the carry trade:

We care about how uranium has been bought and sold over the last decade - not just the sale price - because it informs us as to how a period of rapid price increase could develop over the next few years.

Reminder: the carry trade provides three main services.

1. Time shifting - matches supply today w/ demand tomorrow
2. Price formation - provides fixed forward prices in a market not always willing to provide them
3. Risk mitigation - decouples forward supply from mine operations

At some point in the forward price curve, newly mined supply (tied to inflation) is less expensive than financed spot supply (tied to spot price + interest).

At a constant financing rate, a spot price increase brings forward the time at which these two price curves intersect.

This is not controversial - at the locus of increased utility purchasing and decreased supply availability, uranium price goes up and the carry trade becomes less attractive. For lack of a better term, let’s call this a transition from a carry-driven to production-driven market.

A production-driven market might be:

...in contango, with a forward curve driven by mining cost inflation (input costs, depletion).

...in backwardation, with a supply squeeze in the short term but competitive sellers offering cheaper prices in the forward market.

Vascon Engineers; Price objective INR 30
Buy in 2 tranches between INR 14.5-12

Strong Execution record: 
The company has strong clientale  and has more than 30 plus years of experience across commercial, residential and own real estate development which include big names

like Cipla SeZ, Ruby Mills  Mumbai, Suzlon  one, MLCP Delhi Airport and various IT companies like Zensar, WNS , IBM, Mastek, Mphasis  etc.

Company has strong order book of 2000 cr which is 4x its FY20 revenue gives visibility of next 2 -3 years. The company has started

winning new orders also.

The company is confident of  reducing its current NET debt of INR 187crores substantially from revenues of existing projects only, Montization of non core assets and sale of Windermere.

The company has taken various cost measures during COVID and

they are likely to remain and would boost profitability of the company and improve margins.

The company has good real estate pipe line of more than 100 cr plus for next 12 -18 months.

75 pc of order book is largely from Government based projects where cash flow issues are

not there.

Company has witnessed good traction in real estate biz post Maharashtra Government announced stamp duty reduction from 5 pc to 2 pc.

Company is confidence of achieving FY20 numbers in FY21 as execution is now at normalcy with sufficient labor availability against

With $GME hitting all time highs, making people millions & some even billions, let's take a look at one of the gaming companies set to IPO soon.

Time for a thread 👇 👇👇

1/ Roblox is like the world’s largest:

🏨 HOTEL COMPANY #AirBnB 👉 doesn’t own real estate
🚕 TAXI COMPANY #Uber 👉 doesn’t own any cars

AND

🎮 DIGITAL PLAYGROUND COMPANY #Roblox 👉 doesn’t create any games

2/ Digital Disney World.

Remember building imaginary forts with your friends in your backyard?

It's like that except digital, pros are building the structures and your parents are spending a lot of $$$ buying gear, digital pets and accessories.

Making $RBLX very rich!

3/ Business Model.

Online gaming platform where millions of kids (and some adults) come to play, learn, communicate, explore, and expand their friendships.

All in 3D digital worlds that are entirely user-built.

4/ Highlights.

- Founded in 2004
- $589MM revenue
- +170MM monthly active users (Oct 2020)
- Freemium, monthly subscription & one-time payments
- US$29.5B Valuation

A quick switch to a new currency would create a risk of capital flight with people, businesses and investors moving money, jobs and investment out Scotland.

Even proposing it during a campaign would mean people move money, jobs and investment in case there was a devaluation. Just imagine the political and economic cost that would be paid.

Furthermore uncertainty for people over what would happen to their income, pension, mortgage and savings if held cross border.

Quebec suffered this in a major way in its referendum (with a quick change currency proposal) and the jobs and investment have not fully returned.

A further issue is the cost of borrowing for public services investment. If you ask the world’s savers to fund your public borrowing at a time when you are yet to get it on a sustainable footing and then add the risk of currency changes it will be very expensive.

EXTREMELY IMPORTANT INTERVIEW FOR INVESTORS
Especially new ones!

I disagree with most of it, but ULTRA-IMPORTANT!

Here's why
1/
https://t.co/THWfs2SI2y
@stevenmarkryan
@jpr007 @stekkerauto @garyblack00 @TeslaBest @iamtomnash @TeslaPodcast @EvaFoxU @WR4NYGov
$TSLA #Investing

2/ Grantham from GMO is labeled as a value investor, but don't let it fool you. Unlike other "geniuses" he doesn't just check P/E or P/S, but also factors in growth, including possibly huge growth.

Ultimately his preference or bias is for dividend stocks, but he's doing it right

3/ He sees the current condition as a bubble that should burst in. 2 months - unless further inflated by the fed.

If you disagree don't stop reading. Important!

4/ Before pointing to where i agree and where i don't, i think it's ULTRA IMPORTANT for investors to hear opposing views, when they have firm grounds

Fine to disagree but bad to just dismiss or ignore - do that and you might lose everything

(that's the only ADVICE i give, BTW)

5/ Grantham sees the market as a bubble that should burst in. 2 months - unless further inflated by the fed

History shows that on bull mkts once everyone is HUGELY optimistic and put EVERYTHING they have in the mkt, there is nowhere else to go (unless fed gives even more money)