Possibly the greatest NBER abstract ever written.

After a couple years of ads telling men to do laundry turned out, weirdly, to not boost fertility, Korea is back to financial incentives, which prior research has shown do work but at a very high price.

Korea is adding a $275/month allowance for the first year of a baby's life, increasing the pregnancy medical benefit by $400 or so, and providing an $1800 baby bonus. There's also some unspecified benefits related to leave and high-parity families.

The thing to understand is that these efforts are not *actually* huge. Quoting things in won gives you big numbers so it's easy to lose sight of the fact that we're not talking about enough money to actually offset a large share of wages.

I'm a fan of baby bonuses and first-year benefits. They're probably the most bang for the buck.

But this isn't actually all that many bucks!

These benefits add up to about $5,500 in benefits. A similar program compared to average incomes in the US would be about $8,700.

Conservatives love to complain about the media.

But there's an inside baseball media that reveals how destructive the conservative media criticism environment can be to the conservative movement.

Enter, Fox News:

The story is pretty simple.

On election night, Fox News called Arizona very early. This surprised pretty much everyone. The Fox News team had improved their election model in 2020, and was confident their call was correct, even if unconventional.

Controversially, however, they called it for Joe Biden. Arizona has historically been a red state, and the polls (and final result) were close there. Nobody had a really strong expectation it was gonna go for Biden until Fox News just.... called it.

This hurled Trump surrogates into a desperate place. If they lost *Arizona*, that was a bad sign for the night. More importantly, it happened before midnight: it humiliated the President while millions were still watching.

The Trump campaign immediately turned on a dime. They pivoted from "Look, we're crushing it with Hispanics! Massive turnout! Incredible performance!" to "The election was stolen."

Who stole the election changed over time. Fox News. Some rando in Atlanta. Poll workers. China.

the strange reality of strict calvinism is that it makes a mockery of God's claims to hate, abhort, or even be theoretically opposed to evil

the calvinist solution to the problem of evil, which I have *literally heard from the lips of a faithful well-catechized Presbyterian* is, "well, all that happens is God's will, and to do His will is to manifest goodness, and goodness gives God joy, so God must rejoice in evil"

The hypothetical I gave was, "Suppose that there was a city of Christians, and a bomber flew over the city, and the guy at the controls tripped and accidentally armed and dropped a bomb, and wiped out the city: is that God's will? What does God think of that?"

His answer in addition to the above cited the Flood, Soddom, and Nineveh.

Because we all know that God's response to the Flood was, "I REALLY liked that, it was AWESOME, it satisfied my will and purposes to obliterate my creation!"

Once you have drunk the "but muh sovrintee" Kool-Aid you cannot escape the argument that literally everything that happens is not just God's will in some philosophical sense, but His will in the sense of "things that bring him pleasure."

A thread on Risk and Returns

Trader X -

Net-worth - 5 Cr
Trading capital - 25 lakh

Trader Y -

Net-worth - 30 lakh
Trading capital - 25 lakh

Trader X take risk of 2% per trade and he makes about 30-40 % Return on trading capital per month,

Whereas Trader Y only risk 0.25% per trade and he makes about 3-4 % on Trading capital per month.

Trader Y saw how much trader X is making with the same amount of capital that he has.

He is frustrated with his mediocre results as compared to Trader X, though he don’t know the fact that Trader X Is only trading with 5 % of his total net worth.

Trader X has much more risk taking ability in Rupee terms as compared to the Trader Y because he has higher net-worth.

Trader X will not have much impact when he goes into deep Drawdowns , 40-50% where as if the Trader Y goes below 15% DD , it will have deep psychological impact on him.

Even if the Trader X makes 100% return on his trading capital , turns 25 lakh into 50 lakhs ,

How to Avoid Big Losses In trading ?

1. Avoid Stocks Below 200 ema
2. Sell Stocks in Stage 4 Down Trend
3. Dont Trade Stocks that are moving in Circuits
4. Avoid News based Trading

A thread With examples🔖

Retweet to Educate Your Trading Friends !
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A Study Shows that 90% of the winning Stocks stay above 200 ema before a big Advancing Phase

1. Simply Not Holding or Buying Stocks below 200 ema Saves a lot of time and Money.
2. You can looses opportunity Cost if you buy stocks below 200 ema.
3. TimeFrame: Daily 200 ema

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B. Sell Stocks in Stage 4 Down Trend

1. Stocks Exhibiting this are in complete Bear Grip
2. The 30 week ema acts as reference for stage analysis
3. These Stocks can be short sold on pullback to 30wema
4. Happens after Topping Phase
5. TimeFrame : Weekly , 30 Week Ema

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C. Dont Trade Stocks that are moving in Circuits

1. Mostly these stocks are Speculatve and Operator Driven.
2. You never know what is the top of the trend and may get Stuck with Huge Losses

Example : TTML , Alok , Ruchi etc
This is Pyramid Structure and news driven also
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D. Avoid News based Trading
1. Whenever a postive News comes in Market People Jump in Buying the Stocks without thinking .
2. Most of the the times the news is factored in or gets factored after heavy buying
3. Your Money may get Stuck

Example : PnbBousing , AdaniPower
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