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An option buyer made Rs. 58 lacs from Rs. 2 lac capital in a span of just one month (March 2020 COVID crash).

He is none other than Mr. Subasish Pani.

THREAD: 11 things you must know to become an option buyer.

Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal

 •Don't get carried away with the kind of return that Mr. Pani made in such a short period of time.

•This requires a high level of skill, and discipline in terms of which strike to choose, which time to trade, and which days to trade.

•It also comes with higher drawdown.
1/ Screen Time:

• Indian markets function from 9:15-15:30.

• Dividing this time zone into 3 sub parts:
- 9:15 to 10:30: trending market
- 10:30 to 13:30: for retracement
- 13:30 to 3:30: trending market

https://t.co/cO7FtokXTQ
2/ Focus on momentum:

• Option buyers make money when the momentum is quick.

• However if the market remain sideways for few days then the option starts to lose its value.

• This is because theta decay works against option buyers.
3/ Option buyers need momentum to make money:

• Hence focus on the 1st & 2nd time zone where the markets are trending.

• Avoid taking trades between 10:30am till 13:30.

• Special focus on Wednesday & Thursday as premiums are low and if you can catch momentum then good R/R.
4/ Theta decay is a friend of option seller:

• Let's say the market view is -ve and market stays sideways or goes down, option sellers will still make money due to theta decay.

• Hence, the probability of winning for option sellers is 66.6% whereas for buyers its 33.3%.
5/What's the favorable risk to reward (R/R):

• Since the winning probability of an option buyer is 33.3%, the edge is maintained by keeping losses at a fraction of gains.

Hence, R/R has to be 1:4.
6/ Why deep OTMs doesn't work?

• Most of the option buyers select deep OTMs , but they have a higher probability of losing value as time passes away.

• Hence, deep OTMs are usually favorite of option sellers.

•Option buyers should select strikes near to Rs. 100.
7/ Should option buyers focus on ATM?

• ATM strikes, having prems near to 200-300 is highly volatile. Hence the SL for ATM would be minimum Rs. 40-50.

• R/R is 1:4, then the reward should be atleast Rs. 160-200 which looks slightly challenging.

• So stay away from ATMs.
8/ Find the sweet spot!

• ATMs are too volatile and far OTMs lose value quickly, therefore the golden mean is to select option in the range of Rs. 100

• Rs. 100 option doesn't have that kind of volatility that ATM has and Rs. 20-25 SL works, without getting stopped out.
9/ On expiry days which premium to focus?

• During expiry's one can work with Rs. 40 - 50 especially post 12:30 noon.

• At times the 2pm moves are ferocious and one can even work with Rs. 20-25 premium.

https://t.co/GwqZ5cc2so
10/ Have no regrets:

• We don't know the target, we can only book as per our R/R.

• One can never capture the entire move in option buying.

• Be satisfied with what you book rather than having regrets of exiting the trade early.
11/ Scaling up:

• Choose option buying because it interests you rather than opting for it due to lack of capital.

•Psychological issues would be higher while scaling up due to the MTM swings in option buying.

https://t.co/wviTTCzNz5
If you enjoyed this thread, here's another one which might be helpful to get a set up in option buying.
https://t.co/1Au8unvmum
Hope you discovered something new (because that's the point!)

If you did, share it with a friend

Hop back up to retweet the first tweet

See past threads here:

@AdityaTodmal

&

@niki_poojary

More from Nikita Poojary

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90 million active demat accounts in India.

Less than 1% understand Fibonacci retracement.

This mega thread will help you understand better—starting today:

Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal

1/What is Fibonnaci (Fibo) retracement?:

•Fibo retracement levels help us to identify potential reversal area or identifying potential entry point after a pullback.

•It represents various levels of significance within a swing high and low.

2/How to plot the Fibo?

•Spot the recent swing high & swing low (usually a peak & a low) on a chart.

•Plot the Fibo on these points.

•You'll get 5 key levels of support & resistance (S/R) in between the peak & low.

•Key Fibonacci ratios: 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, & 100%.

3/ Importance of retracement levels:

• The retracement level forecast can determine the level at which retracement is likely to occur.

• These retracement levels offer traders a favourable entry to open new trades in the direction of the trend.

4/ When to apply Fibo:

•Fibonacci analysis can be applied when there is a noticeable up-move or down-move in prices.

•Applying it in range bound markets would turn out to be a futile exercise.
FIBONACCI , ALL
Nikita Poojary
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@niki_poojary
Time for a Thread🧵On yesterday’s “F&O Pe Charcha - Diary Of An Option Seller” with @Mitesh_Engr by @Paytm Money

Why Gain/loss ratio is important that the batting average
• More than the Win Loss ratio check the total Gain /loss ratio
• If your avg loss is 1% and avg gain is +5% then even if you are losing in 7 positions and winning in 3 out of 10 still you will be net profitable

Treat Trading as a business:
• Stick to a single strategy. Eg: A restaurateur usually wouldn’t be changing his recipe on a daily basis
• Mitesh Sir only works on BO or BD strategy, as he is a versatile trader

• Any trader should atleast experience 3 scenarios i.e. bull, bear & consolidation
• Target 4% per month i.e. 48% p.a.
• Option buying requires skill, everyday there wont be huge momentum, so buying options won’t yield good results, but high chances of falling into a bad habit

Stock Selection:
• In F&O segment there are ~150 stocks
• Not everyday all stocks will move
• Only 5-7 stocks move upside or downside
• Focus only these momentum stocks
• Check which one is moving
• Range BO/BD never disappoints. BO/BD from a rectangle (consolidation)
MPLEARNINGS , ALL , OPTION SELLING
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Nikita Poojary
@niki_poojary
𝐁𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐃𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 - 𝐏𝐚𝐫𝐭 𝐈𝐈𝐈

Topics covered:

• Moneyness of an Option

• Intrinsic value & Time value of an option

• Why Intrinsic value & time value matters

• Implied Volatility

Time for a 🧵

Curated in collaboration with
@AdityaTodmal


• Moneyness of Option contract:
• ITM option
• ATM option
• OTM option


• Intrinsic Value of an option:
• Positive payoff for the buyer


• Intrinsic value of ITM CE options = Spot- Strike


• Intrinsic value of an:
i) ITM for a CE option: Positive
ii) ATM for a CE option: Zero
• Intrinsic value is never Negative
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Nikita Poojary
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@niki_poojary
In the month of November 2022, we have shared 9 threads, which includes:

• How to save taxes from trading income
- Individuals
- Corporate way
• Powerful Intraday set-up with screeners
• 12 rules for professional position players

and much more 🧵

1/ How to initiate a short straddle how to manage them with


2/ Things I know now, (after three years) post becoming a full - time


3/ How to reduce taxes by optiong for a Corporate


4/ Ten powerful intraday setups with
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Nikita Poojary
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@niki_poojary
How to make 1% consistently via Option Selling?

• Analyzing the trend
• Selling OTM's
• Making adjustments
• Capturing trending move
• Without big drawdowns
• Right Position Sizing
• Risk Management

Here are the 11 aspects to focus on:

Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal

1. Analyze the trend:

To begin with, determine whether Bank Nifty is trending, consolidating, or stuck in a range.

Why?

Cause we can predict what it will do then.

2. How many points to capture?

The margin required for selling one lot is around Rs. 1.5 lakh for a strangle.

If we earn around Rs. 1500 on one lot, we would make 1% return on our capital.

1500/25 = 60 points

Either sell directional 60 and make it zero.

Or 30-30 both sides.

3. How do we begin in the weekly expiry?

Can tend to skip Friday's as there are two days holiday.

In those 2 days market has ample time to come out with news, react to SGX and so forth.

So from a R:R perspective it is not great to carry from Friday.

Even the decay isn't huge if you see unless there's a big gap and you are on the correct size of it.

The Weekly candle also is from Monday to Friday.

So at Friday EOD we know how the weekly candle looks as well.
OPTION SELLING

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A thread on Trend-lines


// What are trend-lines?

Trend-lines are support and resistance lines which are formed by connecting Important swing points.

The beauty of using them is that We can use them when stock is not Respecting the Horizontal S&R zones, they can indicate us when the trend may change.

// Things To consider while Making trendlines?

• A trendline formed by using 3 Major-Swing points is a potential trendline, But we will also use 2 points to form a trendline, will discuss how, as you read further.

• Trendline can be formed by two ways-

1. Wicks-

In this method we only connect the wicks to make a trendline, this is a precise way of making a trendline.


// Why only connect the wicks?

There are two type of levels - Precise and Less precise (Which we call zones).

So what we are doing is by only connecting the wicks we are making a precise level where we can take trades, either Mean reversion or Breakout trades.

Examples-
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So what will be the aftermath of this GME event?

These are simply my guesses, I don't actually know.

Wallstreet will likely push for licenses being necessary to trade, or put more limits on how many trades you can make, or some other way to screw the average person trading. 1/

FYI, you can only make 4 trades in a day, but if you have more than $25,000 in your account you can make as many as you want.

The system is rigged against the poor, and weighted heavily in favour of the rich. 2/

Will the government shut down the market?

It's possible, but I doubt it.
It would open up new precedents and the optics would be terrible- i.e. shutting down the market because greedy hedgefunds fucked up, and normal people are taking them to the cleaners. 3/

If the government gives in to Wallstreet, they lose all credibility, because this story is basically David vs Goliath, where the Reddit guys are the good guys, and the hedgefunds are the bad guys.

4/

Likely they will implement similar rules to Europe, that stops naked short selling.

Anything more than that, I'm not sure.
I think the media will push the threat of the government shutting down trading, in order to scare people into selling, to give short sellers a way out. 5/
TRADING
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Cem Karsan 🥐
@jam_croissant
1/x Vanna is back & ready to turn back on the charm! Overnight the market hit our weeklong target of **3705 and pulled back... We were able to take profits & play for a bit of morning digestion. It’s been a nice +3.5% in a week w/a few extra scalps along the way...But the best


2/x part has been the gift of Vol compression, which along w/ short Vol profits, has given us significant calendar expansion & dispersion opps, as predicted. I expect this to continue this week as well, as Ivol oversupply should continue to be the dominant force until 12/11.This,

3/x paired w/ the significantly increasing Vanna & Charm flows, will make it hard for any decline until 12/14 to catch meaningful momentum. This said, the narrowing of 20 day RVol as well as the 2 stddev of the 20 day just overhead should cap any rallies, given the dramatically

4/x overextended retail (8-day SMA of P/C equity is the lowest in 20 years) & institutional positioning. This push/pull, should ultimately keep the market fairly pinned this week...Jan 8th call’s on back are incredibly cheap w/ a GA runoff event straddle of only $55, which given

5/x the potential macro-cyclical consequences of the next 2 years of fiscal stimulus seems absurd...& In terms of a more short term trade,Tesla Vol is either too high or 12/18 on back calendar spreads in the SPX are too low, as there’s no premium being priced in for the inclusion
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Gurleen
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@GurleenKaur_19
A Thread on~ O V E R T R A D I N G

Sitting and observing the numbers flicker on the screen might be very exciting.


But have you ever felt like you might've done better? Or you're just too tired of waiting that you punch an order right in?

That's a Bad Idea.

So, Let's understand the reasons behind it and try to find a way out.

1. Not having a trading plan makes you clueless.
Your impulses start to take control of you.

2. Having a trading plan; But still taking impulsive/ random trades.
Because of adrenaline rush or gambling instinct.

3. Revenge trading
When you try to force a trade in order to recover from a previous loss.
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Want to master Option Selling for free?

Here are the best resources.

A thread 🧵👇

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

1. Best book of knowledge for a beginner?

Zerodha Varsity from @Nithin0dha's team is the best book for a newcomer to read and increase his basic knowledge about options, especially for the Indian markets.

Link:

2. Best Youtube channel on Options Trading?

The @tastytrade financial network. It's a foreign channel that focuses mostly on selling options.

They teach all strategies for free with their backtests.

Big on Straddle/Strangles selling.

Links:

3. Top Indian YouTube Channel for Options?

Power of Stocks - Subhasish Pani

What you'll learn:
1. How to form a trading plan.
2. How to scale an account with risk-reward in option selling.
3. Technical analysis logics you can use daily.

15


4. What are the preconditions to start option Selling:

You should know technical Analysis basics like:
- Support/Resistance
- Chart Patterns
- Candle Patterns
- Dow Theory (HH, LL)

This will help you start taking high-probability trades.
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