How position sizing can affect your trading performance-

Assuming that you are trading a Trend-following system with Big RR and low win-rate.

For example, assume that you risk one percent per trade on a 100,000 account
and you have 20 straight losses.

FEAR - It’s the re-experience of failure in advance.

Many traders face the issue of Not entering in trades because of fear.

A thread on How to pull the trigger when the opportunity knocks.

Lets First start from knowing the cause of this "FEAR" of pulling the trigger.

A traders goes through many phases before becoming Profitable.

The first phase is the " APUN HI BHAGWAN HAI" phase-

When we first begin Trading, we don’t know any concepts, we don’t know about the risks , the dangers.

So we start trading, and like most guys by beginners luck we start making good, we start to calculate how much money we will make in next 1yr, 5 yrs, Greed start to Hop in.

We get introduced to Various instruments, F&O, LEVERAGE.

We take big positions as we don’t have any FEAR cause we haven't seen those bad phases yet.

Now we get the Big blow, account down -50%, or in many cases wiped out.

The first phase ends here.

Now we know How the market can kick our ass, we now know the risk that comes with those big positions.

"THE LEARNING PHASE"-

Now we know that we were just lucky initially and now we have to learn why we get those losses, so we start learning concepts , fundamental, Technicals.

A thread on Trend-lines

// What are trend-lines?

Trend-lines are support and resistance lines which are formed by connecting Important swing points.

The beauty of using them is that We can use them when stock is not Respecting the Horizontal S&R zones, they can indicate us when the trend may change.

// Things To consider while Making trendlines?

• A trendline formed by using 3 Major-Swing points is a potential trendline, But we will also use 2 points to form a trendline, will discuss how, as you read further.

• Trendline can be formed by two ways-

1. Wicks-

In this method we only connect the wicks to make a trendline, this is a precise way of making a trendline.

// Why only connect the wicks?

There are two type of levels - Precise and Less precise (Which we call zones).

So what we are doing is by only connecting the wicks we are making a precise level where we can take trades, either Mean reversion or Breakout trades.

Examples-

A thread on Pyramiding-

What is pyramiding?

In pyramiding we add on to a position when it is going in our direction. Its basically opposite of averaging down.

MOMENTUM - Success of a pyramiding trade depend on this ingredient, the more the momentum the better pyramiding.

There are many way to enter and exit in a stock-

1. ALL IN - ALL OUT
2. ALL IN - SCALE OUT
3. SCALE IN - SCALE OUT
4. SCALE IN - ALL OUT ( I use this one)

Why traders use Pyramiding ?

More than anything what pyramiding do is keep your losers small and your winners - Big.

Pyramiding in my view keeps your dd smaller as your losers are very small because you enters with only a fraction of what you would have entered Normally.

BUT, not necessarily it should be more profitable than ALL IN- ALL OUT, Where one enters all at once and sell all at once.

HOW TO DO PYRAMIDING-

There are various methods which are used by traders for pyramiding ,while keeping the basic concept of adding onto the strength.

1. PYRAMIDING AND TRAILING BASED UPON STRUCTURE-

In this method we scale in or pyramid the qty when the stock breaks above

Breakout Trading 101, All you really need to know. 👇
https://t.co/DhDE4H1Oiz

Position sizing is most important aspect of system development, which makes a big difference in your returns.

Thread on Position sizing strategies-

Money management is not any of the following-

• It does not tell you how much you will lose on a trade.
• It does not tell you when to exit.
• It is not risk control.
• It is not risk avoidance.

What is Position sizing-

1. Position sizing is that par of your trading system that answers the question "HOW MUCH" throughout the course of the trade,

• It tells you how big a position you should have at a given time when you are in a trade.

• This 'How much' makes a whole lot of difference in a trader's performance.

* Position sizing strategies-

* There are two basic position sizing strategies -
• Martingale
• Anti-Martingale.

1. Martingale strategies increase one's bet when equity decreases.

2. Anti-martingale strategies increase one's bet when equity increases.

Casinos love people who uses Martingale strategies.

Lets see an example of Roulette where one uses the martingale strategy and double the bet every time he loses-

FEAR - It’s the re-experience of failure in advance.

Many traders face the issue of Not entering in trades because of fear.

A thread on How to pull the trigger when the opportunity knocks.

Lets First start from knowing the cause of this "FEAR" of pulling the trigger.

A traders goes through many phases before becoming Profitable.

The first phase is the " APUN HI BHAGWAN HAI" phase-

When we first begin Trading, we don’t know any concepts, we don’t know about the risks , the dangers.

So we start trading, and like most guys by beginners luck we start making good, we start to calculate how much money we will make in next 1yr, 5 yrs, Greed start to Hop in.

We get introduced to Various instruments, F&O, LEVERAGE.

We take big positions as we don’t have any FEAR cause we haven't seen those bad phases yet.

Now we get the Big blow, account down -50%, or in many cases wiped out.

The first phase ends here.

Now we know How the market can kick our ass, we now know the risk that comes with those big positions.

"THE LEARNING PHASE"-

Now we know that we were just lucky initially and now we have to learn why we get those losses, so we start learning concepts , fundamental, Technicals.

One of the favourite case studies that come up in my BFBV course at MDI is Relaxo. Every year I ask students to study this case which I had done along with @ravirpurohit in 2013 by assigning these

Then I update them on my thinking about this business, management and valuation. This year, I spoke that (which I won't discuss here) and also about some additional lessons. Listing them here:

The importance of distinguishing between things that are under your control and those that you cannot control.

Things you can control include defining what kinds of business you will invest into and which ones you will ignore, how you will make conservative estimates of probable earning power a few years from now and how you will restrain yourself from projecting very high exit multiples.

The one thing over which you have no control is the changes in multiple because that will be decided by the market, which is like a very moody person.

Full Technical Analysis in Single Thread🧵

This whole course is worth 40-50K-

1- Candle sticks and how to use

2- Advanced price action

3- The dow theory

4- Moving

Thread on 'no stop loss', 'adjustments' and 'Risk'
----------------------------------------------------

Wanted to share my thoughts on this topic for a long time but this email sent by someone yday woke me up from slumber

Pls read the email 1st before delving into thread

(1/n)

In the past 1-2 years, there has been a sudden surge of traders who just talk about theta decay, option selling, adjustments and stuff like that..

It is all fair as long as the trader knows what he's doing. But the reality is far from what we see/perceive...

(2/n)

Many of these folks were told that one can 'adjust' their way out of any situation. Any sane options trader know that you cannot come out of any situation by adjustment

One of my friend used to do that(he is famous in options selling desi fintwit) for a long time until..

(3/n)

..he realized that one cannot possibly do that and its gonna burn him one day. He's pretty smart and hence, he put a portfolio level SL & when that hits, he will stop dancing, gets out and calls it a day

So, risk is managed at account level and he is quite clear about it

(4/n)

Unfortunately, 1000s of traders who does option selling(with adjustment) dont have this risk mgmt in place.

They think (i dont know if i had to call it false confidence or ignorance) their skills in 'adjusting' will take them ashore 😅

(5/n)

Most of the successful traders here are option sellers.

Ever wondered why?

Why we have chosen option selling?

Find our below

1: Being wrong and still making money.

We as option sellers can be wrong with our market view and still end up making money because of the power of theta decay and adjustments to some extent.

Adjustments work better as get closer to expiry since decay is the highest.

2: Theta decay

The biggest reason and one of the prime reasons is the theta decay.

Option sellers always have an advantage because the as time passes, the option premium falls even if the underlying instrument doesn't move.

3:Playing directional view

Option selling also enables us to take a directional view. In fact, directional view along with theta decay makes it a solid combination.

Debit spreads and credit spreads works great for a directional view.

4: Playing Neutral view

We can make money in option selling even if the market doesn't move as the otm options will go to 0 with the help of theta decay. It's the most fascinating thing.

This is what attracted many into option selling.