@spyrosmakrid and his team listen to the community's feedback and offer, within a window of three years, two fantastic, insightful and impactful forecasting competitions, the M4 and M5. I am tired with all the "sceptics" that try to dismiss the competitions' results.
1/8

First, the ongoing discussion on error measures. It seems that everyone in the forecasting community has devised their own measures, and if someone is using another one then s/he is doomed. The real question is: does the chosen error measure fit the purpose of the exercise?
2/8

Second, the disbelief on the results especially from people that did not participate in the competitions. I have said that before, but skin in the game is important in forecasting (if you want to call your self a forecaster).
3/8

The fact that a method won a competition does not mean that it will win all future competitions. But, there are important lessons to be learnt. In the case of M3 and Theta: the value of information decomposition. In the case of M4 & M5: the value of cross-learning.
4/8

Such insights should be taken into account when designing future methods and algorithms. Since 2000, I have seen many new implementations of the Theta method that have improved on the original proposition. The same will surely be the case with the top methods of M4 & M5.
5/8

At times it is good to review the Declaration of Independence. When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth

@WendyRogersAZ We have an eyewitness testimony, an actual victim of Robert E. Lee's cruelty.

Wesley Norris speaks to us from the grave.

"My name is Wesley Norris"

"My name is Wesley Norris; I was born a slave on the plantation of George Parke Custis; after the death of Mr. Custis, Gen. Lee, who had been made executor of the estate, assumed control of the slaves, in number about seventy; it was the general impression among the slaves of Mr.

... Custis that on his death they should be forever free; in fact this statement had been made to them by Mr. C. years before; at his death we were informed by Gen. Lee that by the conditions of the will we must remain slaves for five years; I remained with Gen. Lee for about ...

.... seventeen months, when my sister Mary, a cousin of ours, and I determined to run away, which we did in the year 1859; we had already reached Westminster,

... Westminster, in Maryland, on our way to the North, when we were apprehended and thrown into prison, and Gen. Lee notified of our arrest; we remained in prison fifteen days, when we were sent back to Arlington; we were immediately taken before Gen. Lee, who demanded the reason

honestly there has nothing been more flabbergasting than Democrats having faced down getting blown up / shot / kidnapped and then pretending like they have no power to do anything about it

It turns out it’s not that they didn’t care about their constituents, they’re just abject cowards who can’t even stand up for themselves in an ongoing emergency where the lack of consequences makes a second, third, fourth attack more likely????

“Ah ha, but let’s not ruin Biden’s first one hundred days”

A mob just tried to kill you??? Like, there’s bombs and stuff and a cop died???? Why the fuck do you think we’re on a normal schedule anymore!!!

Silicon Valley companies with soul-crushing moral cowardice built into their DNA have moved faster, *what is wrong with you*

The only thing fascists worship is power, or rather, the semblance of power. The only thing that sets them back is feeling like losers. You can’t play 4D chess with an ideology so one dimensional it isn’t actually an ideology

Outside the Capitol now. A crowd is starting to gather. Definitely larger than the previous ones I've seen.

Signs spotted so far:

'Knucklehead Gordon's
'Legislature must convene, fix election fraud.'
'Masks don't work.'

One counter protestor on the corner.

It's started.

Clem: "we are here because we love our freedom, and because the man in that building is a tyrant."

Several hundred people here. Shouts of 'RINO' in the crowd. A few rifles on display.

"Only legislators can make law," he said. Said there was no public input on the health orders.

The reason why Republicans, namely Mitch McConnell @senatemajldr, will not consider the steps other first world countries have taken like monthly stimulus payments to their citizens, is because those are successful socialist based economies. We are a capitalist based society /1

in which our government isn't concerned about the welfare of their fellow citizen but moreover the welfare of their bank accounts. Being a member of congress in The United States is a business. They do not see people that need representing, they see products that need to be /2

utilized for profit. That's what we are is products of profitability to the Republicans. If we suddenly are all happy and getting along and well taken care of, they don't have the means to stir up drama and continue to milk donors for money. You see, it is our money, /3

not theirs, but they are certainly not going to let us have it. That wouldn't serve their profits or their partners. Corporate America is hand in pocket with the Republicans. The richest 1% got over a trillion dollars richer since February, Congress sold off stocks and bought /4

new ones that they knew would either do poorly of they kept them or do great if they bought them, based on the info they got about the pandemic. They know we all need help, they simply don't care. They know the virus has killed 305,000 American Citizens in the USA and /5

1/10 When examining Statins, it should be noted that they have been shown to damage Mitochondria. Article – https://t.co/NIJbj3mULI. Mitochondrial damage can account for all of the relevant adverse effects of Statins – muscle weakness and damage, loss of memory/cognitive function

2/10 Diabetes, depletion of glutathione, etc. An interesting feature of mitochondrial injury is that a threshold of damage must be reached before a disease state results (as described in this article –

3/10 So, if your study period isn’t long enough, Statins truly will have the same number of adverse effects as sugar pills because in a short period of time, the subjects have not crossed their tolerance threshold for mitochondrial damage and no disease state (or adverse events)

4/10 have manifested. It is only with prolonged exposure to mitochondrial damaging chemicals, like Statins, that adverse effects manifest.
If you don’t design your study of mitochondrial damaging drugs to take into account how mitochondria react to assaults –

5/10 with an initial adaptive response followed by a toxic response (as the Peroxynitrite cycle is induced), your results don’t actually say anything notable. If you design your study to take into account the tolerance threshold feature of mitochondria,

It's Friday afternoon, it's dark outside and school is over for the week. Let me tell you some truths about markets in 2021

The consensus view this year is all pervasive. Everything I see and read is based upon it. Parts of it may eventually come true, but it's not going to be sunshine and rainbows

To summarise, the mechanical recovery taking place will become self-sustaining as vaccines and "pent-up demand" combine to lead to an orgy of consumerism

Of course this is a very American fantasy because elsewhere, no one expects anything of the sort to happen, not least Europe or Japan, where we'll continue to be frugal

To add to this we have the Fed "backstopping" the market and a new Democratic administration stuffing cash into the hands of people who already have money

BeLonG To Youth Services is a national organisation supporting LGBT young people in Ireland between the ages of 14-23.
This week they promoted a film called Under the Skin.
I want to learn more so I decided to watch it. 1/8

The first thing I noticed was the rating of 15+ and pointed it out to BelongTo in a tweet that was added to the hidden section...

I was just trying to help... perhaps I could have worded it better but I'm cant hide my annoyance at their reckless approach to safeguarding 🙄

The short film follows the lives of 3 transgender teens over a period of 2 years. The film "Explores the challenges faced by these teens, and the strength and courage it takes to be themselves."
Those featured are named Logan, Soän and Effie.

I was particularly moved by the parents testimony. Soan's father took some time to come to terms with the facts and worried about the possibility of regrets in the future. Logan's Mother described the transition like someone killing and replacing her daughter with a son. 😔

9 mins in Logan was filmed having shots of testosterone injected. A short time after Effie is seen having breast implant surgery.
The whole film basically just follows these teens' medical path to transition.
Worryingly it has become very trendy to take "Vitamin T" 😖

The news today from Washington signals the biggest victory in the field of #CollegeInPrison in decades. It’s a long time coming. This undoes the #94crimebill’s ban on #Pell Grants for incarcerated students. #PellRestoration #PELLYES
A thread.

Prior to the #94CrimeBill, college was common, even normal, in state and federal prisons across the country. The #Pell ban eviscerated college nearly

Since then, a small but growing number of privately funded programs helped keep the field alive. @BPIBard has been proud to be one of them, but we want to shout out our friends & fellow travelers at @MtTamCollege @HudsonLink & women in Bedford Hills who got so much of this going.

After years of advocacy, the critical moment was in 2015 when advocates convinced the Obama administration created Second Chance Pell, formally restoring college-in-prison to the CJR agenda. No one did more to make that happen than our allies @Vivian_Nixon_WW & @glennEmartin.

Just to say, there was one person in the federal government who carried this torch the whole way. That was our friend John Linton in the Dept of Ed, who we lost last year to pancreatic cancer. We love and miss him.

The stunning announcement of >$6B in philanthropic donations in one year by @mackenziescott deserves wider

Fine piece by @nkulish in the @nytimes that addresses some of the key

But this should be just the start.

Important first to put the $6B total in context. Total grantmaking in 2019 by @darrenwalker at the @FordFoundation was ~$350M. Total at @Hewlett_Found was ~$450M.

So @mackenziescott is ~15x some of the largest and most discussed foundations.

To the best of my knowledge, what we know about her philanthropy stems from a total of two posts on @Medium.

No address. No website. No known staff. We don't even know much about the entities she's using -- DAFs, LLCs, private

What's interesting about her philanthropy?

*Proves it's not that difficult to give away a billion dollars.
*No strings attached giving - all general operating support over multiple years
*No reporting requirements, AFAIK

1. Sometimes, God calls us to leave where we are because we have forgotten that we are on a journey to the promised land. When we arrive at Horeb, we somehow forget the real aim and become lost in the temporary. @NDBCVI @olaballo @Eromski @sola_ff @YouthsLagos #makeitworkin2021

2. But, we will not settle for the ephemeral. We are pushing forward to reach the promised land. We refuse to be satisfied with yesterday's happenings. If God told Israel to leave Horeb, why can't we leave too? #makeitwork @dejitula @afolake26 @matchmakers_re @fiyin4God @NDBCVI

3. Israel camped at Horeb, also known as Mount Sinai or the Mountain of God. It was a unique place. There, Moses led Israel to covenant with God. There Moses received the Ten Commandments. Mount Horeb was a special place. But God told them to break camp and advance. Why? @NDBCVI

4. Sometimes, a place of significance can become a barrier. It can become the reason for not growing and pushing forward. Horeb represents a place of significance. Why should you pay attention to Horeb? #livetogrow

5. First, Horeb represents the place of ENCOUNTER. All of us should cherish our place of encounter. It is the point of joy, the place of pleasure, or the location of delight. Horeb was an exciting place for the Israelites and Moses. @NDBCVI

1) I
don't like watching videos of people dying.

I forced myself to watch the #AshliBabbitt video.

I won't post it, but it can be found.

I have some questions.

To my quasi-untrained eye, it appeared to be a Glock .45 ACP that killed her.

Christmas has been & gone, we are in a new year but it is all sounding & feeling very similar to where we were. This time we are ready. We are hurt, we are saddened but we are standing up for what matters and we are united with one aim to see our loved ones #rightsforresidents

Over the last week there has been a lot of anger & frustration building up. Will our loved ones get a vaccine, many still haven’t, goal posts get moved, &the gap widens between 1st/2nd vaccine, will it change the visiting guidance, will we ever see them again,no one will answer!

We hear that Covid+patients are to be discharged into care homes,again.There is a plan,does anyone know it? Where are these designated homes,how will they be managed, will staff be completely separate&where are they coming from?will our loved ones be safe? Can this happen again?

Rights for residents is just that, a campaign to stand up for the #Rightsforresidents in care homes, our loved ones - young adults, children and older people - ignored and forgotten, but not by us

These rights include vaccines, hospital visits/discharges but our primary campaign was & is visits rights. For too long we have been separated from our loved ones, families torn apart & plastic screen put between us - at best

I am in Washington DC. My glasses are fogged up and the police are blocking me from getting into Black Lives Matter Plaza. Proud Boys are in the area but I can't find them.

Police are out and not letting anyone through

I haven't gotten any word why I can't pass but I know I can't. Meanwhile it seems like someone is playing NWA while someone is giving what sounds like a prayer service.

the only people getting thru are staying at a local hotel within, soit looks like my free passage is obstructed

Just hanging on a downtown DC street

Amazing what is going on with narratives that justify ever more draconian policies.

1. Lockdowns China did would never be acceptable in a democracy.
2. Covid is really scary and we don’t know how badly it affects people. Maybe the chinese knows something we don’t. Let’s err on the side of caution.

3. It doesn’t seem to impact kids as much, and the figures show shielded protection is viable - but we need to protect against LONG covid. 4. The first wave outbreak seems not to be matched by same scale of excess deaths as second wave. But mutant strain now about!

5. We don’t know if mutant strain will be treatable with vaccines or if it will impact children - better to err on side of caution and shut everything down again. 6. Data suggests hospitals are within winter crisis norms - but these are not the data points you are looking for.

7. The data points you are looking for are anecdotal testimonies from mostly anonymous NHS staff as well as new regimes and protocol constraints which make all the previous data null and void.